[King of Kensington]

I just posted on my blog the best polls for the Conservatives, NDP and Liberals:

http://southofbloorstreet.blogspot.ca/2015/10/what-are-best-polls-for-conservatives.html

To sum up briefly:

Conservatives Eglinton-Lawrence 100 (Caribou Rd.) 87.5%
NDP Trinity-Spadina 181 (Toronto Islands) 84.5%
Liberals York West 13 (Rowntree Mills) 72.1%

 

[nfitz]

Is anyone else getting inundated with calls and mail from their CPC candidate?

I haven't heard boo from my CPC candidate. I haven't even seen a sign for him this election ... oh wait. No, I saw one sign for him.

Knowing the Tories, they've found a way to take the money from on riding, and are spending it in another.

 

[Videodrome]

I live in an apartment building and several people have been complaining about calls for polling and the incumbent MP. I guess she got a lot of votes from us last time...

 

[ShonTron]

ThreeHundredEight.com has the Liberals sweeping every Toronto riding except Danforth, and all of the GTA except for 4 Conservative ridings.

I take 308's seat projections with a grain of salt. They don't take into account local race dynamics very well, but regional polling trends. And the margin of errors are high. I'd be shocked (and very disheartened) if Andrew Cash lost in Davenport or Peggy Nash in Parkdale-High Park.

 

[ShonTron]

Then again, doesn't she live in University-Rosedale now? I guess you can still say she was parachuted!

With Hollet not doing so well in University-Rosedale, perhaps having Chow run there would have increased the NDP's chances.

Not quite parachuted. The riding boundary is exactly three blocks from her house, she represented a majority of the of the new riding in the past. There's a better case if you want to call Bill Morneau a parachuted candidate - he lives up in the Bridle Path; his company's headquarters is on Don Mills Road.

 

[Skeezix]

Then again, doesn't she live in University-Rosedale now? I guess you can still say she was parachuted!
With Hollet not doing so well in University-Rosedale, perhaps having Chow run there would have increased the NDP's chances.

Not quite parachuted. The riding boundary is exactly three blocks from her house, she represented a majority of the of the new riding in the past. There's a better case if you want to call Bill Morneau a parachuted candidate - he lives up in the Bridle Path; his company's headquarters is on Don Mills Road.

I usually associate the term "parachuted" with a candidate imposed on the local riding association by the party leadership, not with a candidate that won the nomination in the normal course but happens to live outside the riding.

I usually find the ol' "(s)he doesn't live in the riding/ward" complaints to be unpersuasive. One doesn't get to know an entire riding or ward merely by living in it. One really gets to know a riding or ward by working it. Endless door-to-door canvassing. Attending public meetings. Showing up at local events. Listening to the people one meets. Becoming familiar with not only the issues local to the riding/ward, but also the issues of larger scope in which the residents are engaged. One's address usually has little to do with one's ability, and drive, to do this (subject to some limitations, obviously - I'd scratch my head and be dubious if one of the parties tried to run a resident from Manitoba in my riding).

 

[christiesplits]

I take 308's seat projections with a grain of salt. They don't take into account local race dynamics very well, but regional polling trends. And the margin of errors are high. I'd be shocked (and very disheartened) if Andrew Cash lost in Davenport or Peggy Nash in Parkdale-High Park.

True, 308 bases their riding projections on regional polling algorithms that don't factor in the ground game, profile of the incumbent, etc.

And yes, I'd be disappointed if both incumbents lost. Cash won Davenport by almost 10,000 votes in 2011, so that's a huge gap for the Liberals to overcome. Nash has a high profile but the chatter I hear is that the Liberals are performing well in her riding.

 

[Skeezix]

I take 308's seat projections with a grain of salt. They don't take into account local race dynamics very well, but regional polling trends. And the margin of errors are high. I'd be shocked (and very disheartened) if Andrew Cash lost in Davenport or Peggy Nash in Parkdale-High Park.

Agreed. Riding predictions of all sorts are notoriously inaccurate, and all should be taken with a grain of salt.

That said, Cash's defeat wouldn't surprise me, given it's a longtime Liberal riding (no disrespect to Cash intended). Cash's majority in 2011 was a one-off in the context of a complete Liberal collapse where even Stephen Harper picked up ridings in the 416 -- the Liberals are back in the game this time, so traditional voting patterns are likely more instructive.

Liberals almost took Parkdale-High Park from long-term MPP Cheri DeNovo in the provincial election, so there is some recent evidence of fickle NDP voters in that riding going red. Also, Parkdale-High Park has gone back and forth federally between the Liberals (Bulte, Kennedy) and the NDP (Nash) the last few elections, so a swing the other way is not out of the realm of possibility.

So, yeah, I agree no one should bet money on riding projections. And while I have no idea how either riding will vote on Oct 19, nobody should be shocked if the Liberals take one, or both, of them. Conversely, nobody should be shocked if the NDP keep one, or both, either.

 

[ShonTron]

I usually associate the term "parachuted" with a candidate imposed on the local riding association by the party leadership, not with a candidate that won the nomination in the normal course but happens to live outside the riding.

I usually find the ol' "(s)he doesn't live in the riding/ward" complaints to be unpersuasive. One doesn't get to know an entire riding or ward merely by living in it. One really gets to know a riding or ward by working it. Endless door-to-door canvassing. Attending public meetings. Showing up at local events. Listening to the people one meets. Becoming familiar with not only the issues local to the riding/ward, but also the issues of larger scope in which the residents are engaged. One's address usually has little to do with one's ability, and drive, to do this (subject to some limitations, obviously - I'd scratch my head and be dubious if one of the parties tried to run a resident from Manitoba in my riding).

Most of the time, yes. I'm not one who cares whether a politician lives in the riding or not; just as long as there's a logical connection to it. Adam Giambrone was a classic parachute candidate in Scarborough; John Tory was a parachute candidate twice - in Caledon-Dufferin (which he won) and in Kawartha Lakes (which he lost).

In the case of Toronto Centre, Morneau is running there because the Liberal Party really wants him; they think he's a star candidate, and with his right-wing business credentials, a potential finance minister. Rob Oliphant was also looking to take back Don Valley West, Morneau's natural riding. But it's not as if he has zero connection to the riding; after all the C.D. Howe Institute has its offices within it. Chow is running in Spadina-Fort York because a candidate had yet to be nominated; the party wanted her as well.

 

[Skeezix]

ThreeHundredEight.com has the Liberals sweeping every Toronto riding except Danforth, and all of the GTA except for 4 Conservative ridings.

Irony here is that Craig Scott is not particularly impressive. It would be better for the NDP, and their future prospects in central Toronto, if they lost Toronto Danforth, but won somewhere else downtown and kept/gained a Jennifer Hollett, Peggy Nash or Andrew Cash in the caucus. I know, I know ... Toronto Danforth is Layton's old riding, so there is a lot emotional attachment to it. But from a hard-headed perspective, the party would be better served by another one of their candidates if it turns out that ThreeHundredEight.com is correct (big if) and the NDP only gets to keep one riding.

 

[Johnny Au]

Joe Oliver is another parachuted candidate (and incumbent): he lives in St. Paul's but represents Eglinton-Lawrence.

However, Andrew Thomson is not a parachuted candidate: after being an MLA in Saskatchewan, he moved to Eglinton-Lawrence, where he currently represents.

 

[Towered]

That said, Cash's defeat wouldn't surprise me, given it's a longtime Liberal riding (no disrespect to Cash intended). Cash's majority in 2011 was a one-off in the context of a complete Liberal collapse where even Stephen Harper picked up ridings in the 416 -- the Liberals are back in the game this time, so traditional voting patterns are likely more instructive.

I live in Cash's riding and I'd be very surprised if he lost. I know lawn signs aren't the most reliable indicator, but I'd say his outnumber the Liberal candidate's by at least 2 to 1.

That won't stop me from voting Liberal though.

 

[King of Kensington]

If signage in the Annex is indication (I had a close look at Walmer Rd. and Howland) the NDP is in good shape in University-Rosedale.

 

[christiesplits]

If signage in the Annex is indication (I had a close look at Walmer Rd. and Howland) the NDP is in good shape in University-Rosedale.

I anticipate Hollett winning most of the polls around Little Italy, U of T and the Annex. I think the Bay St condo canyon, Summerhill and Rosedale will go to Freeland.

 

[adma]

I take 308's seat projections with a grain of salt. They don't take into account local race dynamics very well, but regional polling trends. And the margin of errors are high. I'd be shocked (and very disheartened) if Andrew Cash lost in Davenport or Peggy Nash in Parkdale-High Park.

And they're also overly reliant on "projection" from previous (2011) figures. (Such previous-election-matrix abuse was really marked in the Alberta election, where NDP in the lead led to nothing more than an Edmonton overconcentration + Lethbridge according to projectionists)