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WislaHD said:
I cannot take Chow seriously after the mayoral election. Outside of her areas of expertise, homelessness and community housing, she came across as clueless in so many other areas, especially transit and infrastructure.
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Those qualities made her a great person to have on city council; with the right team, she could have been a decent mayor. But she ran a terrible campaign. When I saw her leading polls in Spadina-Fort York, I was surprised; I figured Adam Vaughan would clean up in a condo-dominated riding. After all, Chow couldn't even win in Ward 20 in the 2014 municipal election.

I'm surprised to see polls favouring Bill Morneau over Linda McQuaig in Toronto Centre while the NDP are still favoured in the other two downtown ridings. Toronto Centre is the lowest-income of the three; Bill Morneau's great wealth and corporatist views are a far cry from more progressive past Toronto Centre MPs like Bill Graham and Bob Rae.
 
I feel like Olivia is kicking herself for not getting trying to get the University-Rosedale nomination earlier in the year. Looks like it's Hollett's to lose. I think Toronto Centre and Fort York-Spadina will come down to the wire.
 
I find it interest to compare how a very safe seat is treated in America and Canada. We still run a full set of candidates. It doesn't matter if the riding leans left, there is a CPC nominee. In America, if a seat always goes to the Democrats, the GOP might not bother running a candidate.
 
The riding projections at threehundredeight aren't showing a particularly tight race in any of the downtown Toronto ridings.

Toronto Center: 11% Con, 48% Lib, 36% NDP
Spadina - Fort York: 13% Con, 37% Lib, 46% NDP
University - Rosedale: 17% Con, 41% Lib, 36% NDP
 
I take riding polls and projections with a grain of salt. The polls usually have too small a sample, or the sample is not sufficiently representative, or both. People say "I see a lot of NDP signs" - if that mattered, the NDP would have taken Toronto Centre both federally and provincially in past elections. I doubt Vaughan is behind, I don't think Morneau is that far ahead, and I strongly doubt Hollett will defeat Freeland. I base that on past elections and by-elections (Chow didn't even get a majority of the votes in her old riding in the last municipal election), plus national trends (which admittedly don't match local voting patterns, but could send undecided voters towards the Liberals or NDP), but it's admittedly just a guess on my part (and just as valid as any other projection - i.e. also to be taken with grain of salt).
 
Do you think the name recognition for Chow following the election is enough to make that much of a difference to the average voter?
 
Chow is well known in the riding; she's got a lot of name recognition besides the mayoral election.
 
Skeezix said:
I take riding polls and projections with a grain of salt. The polls usually have too small a sample, or the sample is not sufficiently representative, or both. People say "I see a lot of NDP signs" - if that mattered, the NDP would have taken Toronto Centre both federally and provincially in past elections. I doubt Vaughan is behind, I don't think Morneau is that far ahead, and I strongly doubt Hollett will defeat Freeland. I base that on past elections and by-elections (Chow didn't even get a majority of the votes in her old riding in the last municipal election), plus national trends (which admittedly don't match local voting patterns, but could send undecided voters towards the Liberals or NDP), but it's admittedly just a guess on my part (and just as valid as any other projection - i.e. also to be taken with grain of salt).
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I have a blog, and I tried to interpolate the results of previous elections to the new 2015 ridings, first in April (well before Chow was nominated) and updated recently. It was an interesting exercise, but there's plenty of caveats.

Chow won Trinity Spadina in 2008; but it was still a horserace with Christine Innes; in 2011 it was a blow-out, but that year the Liberals collapsed. Toronto Centre has long been a Liberal stronghold, but the NDP's vote share kept going up. Had the 2011 election results applied to the new riding boundaries, the NDP would have taken all three.

The 2013 and 2014 by-elections had poor voter turnout; the Liberals took Trinity-Spadina thanks to the popularity and name recognition of Adam Vaughan (and lack thereof of Joe Cressy); Justin Trudeau himself was popular as well. Had the by-election results applied to the new ridings, the Liberals would have taken all three, but the NDP would have done best in the new, smaller Toronto Centre.

Threehundredeight, the Election Prediction Project and various polls say somewhat different things; I'm reluctant to predict results. But I feel Morneau and McQuaig are running 50/50, Hollett will probably win in University-Rosedale, and that Spadina-Fort York will return a past Toronto city councillor to Ottawa.
 
ShonTron said:
Chow won Trinity Spadina in 2008; but it was still a horserace with Christine Innes; in 2011 it was a blow-out, but that year the Liberals collapsed.
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That's what makes Spadina-Fort York so difficult to predict. The last time Chow and Vaughan ran federally, in 2011 and 2014, respectively, they both won in a blowout.
 
Well, that and the fact that it's a different riding. Just too many variables and changes to make a good prediction. It's an interesting race. Anecdotally, I've seen more of Vaughan out and about on the campaign trail than I have Chow.
 
It could honestly come down to who is leading national polls by election date.

If the strategic ABC vote shifts towards Liberals, then Vaughan might win with ease.
 
ShonTron said:
I'm surprised to see polls favouring Bill Morneau over Linda McQuaig in Toronto Centre while the NDP are still favoured in the other two downtown ridings. Toronto Centre is the lowest-income of the three; Bill Morneau's great wealth and corporatist views are a far cry from more progressive past Toronto Centre MPs like Bill Graham and Bob Rae.
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Historically the riding's MPs have come from north of Bloor. And even with redistribution the may very well not even with a south of Bloor MP (Morneau lives in the Bridle Path and is married into the McCain family).

I'm pretty disappointed with Mulcair's "play it safe" campaign (just like Olivia Chow until the last few weeks and Adrian Dix in BC), but I've decided to do some canvassing for Linda McQuaig since I'd like to see her as an MP.

I fear however that party resources will be devoted to making sure Olivia Chow stays on.
 
My incumbent MP is really ramping up the junk mail and robocalls...
 
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