Re: Spadina - Fort York.
I've caught myself over-analyzing the race. I think that the riding goes however the national winds blow. If the NDP is ahead of the Liberals on Election Day, Chow takes it, if the Liberals lead, Vaughan takes it.
Based on the redistributed results from 2011 it looks like an NDP lock
2011 results extrapolated for the new riding:
NDP = 50%
Liberal = 25%
Cons = 21%
...the riding came from the old Trinity/Spadina and Toronto Centre. The by-election was without Chow so it should revert to the normal of the 2011 results.
It looks like that blog post was written before Olivia Chow announced she was going for the NDP nomination for Spadina-Fort York. Unless that's changed, the race in that riding could be very interesting.
I wrote it back in April. I should update it or re-publish it, but the elections data from 2011 and 2013/2014 itself doesn't change.
The current polls say the Liberals have gained some momentum in Ontario (mostly at the expense of the Cons) but I think it applies mostly in the rural areas (where the vote is lost since the Cons are a lock) and in the 905 (will have some interesting races). You also have to add in the new condo's which may lend some support the Conservatives (based on the poll by poll results last time the owner-occupied condos have a higher leaning towards the Cons vs the overall riding results). My prediction:
NDP = 50%
Liberal = 22%
Cons = 23%
Yes....that's right. Liberals and Cons fighting it out for 2nd place! My the tide has shifted as affluent people move downtown. (but in this riding the renters reign supreme and vote NDP)