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It would be interesting to have some incumbents return, but not have the power that they used to enjoy.
 
Right, I get ya.

What, so they can resign shortly thereafter proving they were never worthy of pretending to represent their constituents? So even people who supported them finally see what kind of self-serving and false, human rubbish they put their faith in?

I like it.
 
mjl08 said:
Re: Spadina - Fort York.

I've caught myself over-analyzing the race. I think that the riding goes however the national winds blow. If the NDP is ahead of the Liberals on Election Day, Chow takes it, if the Liberals lead, Vaughan takes it.
Click to expand...

Based on the redistributed results from 2011 it looks like an NDP lock

2011 results extrapolated for the new riding:
NDP = 50%
Liberal = 25%
Cons = 21%

...the riding came from the old Trinity/Spadina and Toronto Centre. The by-election was without Chow so it should revert to the normal of the 2011 results.

The current polls say the Liberals have gained some momentum in Ontario (mostly at the expense of the Cons) but I think it applies mostly in the rural areas (where the vote is lost since the Cons are a lock) and in the 905 (will have some interesting races). You also have to add in the new condo's which may lend some support the Conservatives (based on the poll by poll results last time the owner-occupied condos have a higher leaning towards the Cons vs the overall riding results). My prediction:
NDP = 50%
Liberal = 22%
Cons = 23%

Yes....that's right. Liberals and Cons fighting it out for 2nd place! My the tide has shifted as affluent people move downtown. (but in this riding the renters reign supreme and vote NDP)
 
Is there a summary anywhere as to how Toronto would benefit from each of the three main party's platforms? I'm really curious to see what they'll offer us.
 
muller877 said:
Based on the redistributed results from 2011 it looks like an NDP lock

2011 results extrapolated for the new riding:
NDP = 50%
Liberal = 25%
Cons = 21%

...the riding came from the old Trinity/Spadina and Toronto Centre. The by-election was without Chow so it should revert to the normal of the 2011 results.
Click to expand...

I looked at Spadina-Fort York, University-Rosedale, and Toronto Centre, extrapolating the 2011 election results by poll, and the 2013/2014 by-elections.

I caution that I lot can change in four years. Adam Vaughan is personally popular. By-elections have strange dynamics. Both the NDP and Liberals have different leaders than they did in 2011. After all, if we went with the by-election results, all three downtown ridings would have voted Liberal.

If going by the new riding boundaries and previous results, Toronto Centre has a very good chance of going NDP; the other two not so much. It's very interesting.

http://seanmarshall.ca/2015/04/21/exploring-the-downtown-federal-races/
 
It looks like that blog post was written before Olivia Chow announced she was going for the NDP nomination for Spadina-Fort York. Unless that's changed, the race in that riding could be very interesting.
 
ttk77 said:
It looks like that blog post was written before Olivia Chow announced she was going for the NDP nomination for Spadina-Fort York. Unless that's changed, the race in that riding could be very interesting.
Click to expand...

I wrote it back in April. I should update it or re-publish it, but the elections data from 2011 and 2013/2014 itself doesn't change.
 
ShonTron said:
I wrote it back in April. I should update it or re-publish it, but the elections data from 2011 and 2013/2014 itself doesn't change.
Click to expand...

No, the data doesn't change, but what about your conclusion that the Liberals will easily take Spadina-Fort York? Do you still hold to that?
 
muller877 said:
The current polls say the Liberals have gained some momentum in Ontario (mostly at the expense of the Cons) but I think it applies mostly in the rural areas (where the vote is lost since the Cons are a lock) and in the 905 (will have some interesting races). You also have to add in the new condo's which may lend some support the Conservatives (based on the poll by poll results last time the owner-occupied condos have a higher leaning towards the Cons vs the overall riding results). My prediction:
NDP = 50%
Liberal = 22%
Cons = 23%

Yes....that's right. Liberals and Cons fighting it out for 2nd place! My the tide has shifted as affluent people move downtown. (but in this riding the renters reign supreme and vote NDP)
Click to expand...

Uh, do you even know who Adam Vaughan is? (I'm not saying he'll win. I'm saying that he'll definitely do better than 22% and 3rd place.)
 
I'm hoping UTers more familiar with the Beaches can give me some advice, or at least colour, to help me decide for whom to vote. Our rental for the year we were back in Toronto was in that district, and when you vote from overseas, your last Canadian address is used to allocate your vote.

So, can anyone help me with advice on the Beaches candidates? All seem to be locals, all seem to be pretty young and energetic and bright guys (no women, sadly.)

Thanks in advance for any nuggets.
 
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