[innsertnamehere]

The thing is that the sheppard subway would not be a downtown line. Though it currently is used for a downtown line, in completed form it would be used as a crosstown line. Though there most certainly is more density at STC, the sheppard subway would be used to get from STC to NYCC and york university, not downtown. Plus, the sheppard line would not have close to a million people being served by bus routes that drop off passengers here. Rather, it would serve 200-300,000 people.

 

[vz64]

I think Sheppard would be used as both cross-town and transfer line to get to downtown from Scarborough and North York (whose combined population is more than a million). Considering the low transit use in York, I doubt it will serve a million people...

 

[car4041]

Sheppard, east of Don Mills and Yonge, north of Steeles aren't really all that different in density. Both could, of course, potentially see large increases in density in the future. (How many high rise buildings were there on Yonge north of Eglinton when the Yonge line extension to Finch was first built? Not very many.) The main difference is that Scarborough Centre has a lot of density, while Yonge/Highway 7 is basically big box stores.

But density is only one factor -- feeder routes also have huge importance in the Toronto model. (Just look at the Danforth line to see this -- hardly a high-rise in sight.) The Sheppard subway extension would be fed by a handful of north-south bus routes, some of which only begin 4km north at Steeles. Yonge Street, on the other hand, has quite a large number of routes converging on it, including several long-haul routes and 3 Viva lines, plus the 407 Transitway in the future. I would say that this is a far more significant source of ridership than a few condo towers around stations. (All the condos that have sprouted around Bayview station, for example, have hardly produced astounding ridership numbers.)

Plus, as insertnamehere said, the Yonge line goes straight downtown while the Sheppard line doesn't. That's definitely an important factor, especially since we're constantly being told how much people hate transfers. Anyone using the Sheppard line to get downtown will automatically have one more transfer than someone using the Yonge line.

 

[xtremesniper]

If the line actually went up to 16th, I'd say at least 3 of those 4 corners are prime for redevelopment - and some applications have already come, in actually.

Definitely. It's such a industrial wasteland in that area similar to the Langstaff area that is currently primed to be converted to a 50,000 person development.

I believe the south-east corner is already getting prepared for about 8 or 9 condo developments. Planning to keep the possibility of an extension to 16th is a smart move.

I'd never frown on forward, long-term thinking like this. We've had a lack of it in recent decades which explains why we're in the mess that we're in.

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

I find it hard to believe that the Yonge subway at Highway 7 would have a ridership of 14,000 per hour, if the Sheppard subway is projected to have half that ridership. These ridership estimates have a tendency to be horribly inaccurate. I think that the Yonge extension ridership is being severely overestimated (although redevelopment could change this) while the Sheppard line ridership is being severely underestimated.

As others have pointed out, there's more than density at work. In addition to the feeder routes you also have all the people from York Region who are already taking either a bus or car to Finch Station. There's value in getting those vehicles - hundreds of buses and 1000s of cars - off of Yonge.

It's true there are big box stores at Hwy. 7 now but that land along the north side is all owned by Metrus and I suspect they won't be averse to redevelopment.

The south lands (Langstaff) already have secondary plan approval, the only catch being that denser phases only come online when the transit does (i.e. all-day GO, 407 Transitway, Yonge subway). It may be true that some areas could encounter the same challenges as NYCC but if the transit comes to Langstaff it will basically be a community designed for transit users, whether they're living and working within it, or commuting to or from it. It's the opposite of a car-friendly development which means the community and transit planning must be in lock-step. What a novel idea!

 

[drum118]

As others have pointed out, there's more than density at work. In addition to the feeder routes you also have all the people from York Region who are already taking either a bus or car to Finch Station. There's value in getting those vehicles - hundreds of buses and 1000s of cars - off of Yonge.

It's true there are big box stores at Hwy. 7 now but that land along the north side is all owned by Metrus and I suspect they won't be averse to redevelopment.

The south lands (Langstaff) already have secondary plan approval, the only catch being that denser phases only come online when the transit does (i.e. all-day GO, 407 Transitway, Yonge subway). It may be true that some areas could encounter the same challenges as NYCC but if the transit comes to Langstaff it will basically be a community designed for transit users, whether they're living and working within it, or commuting to or from it. It's the opposite of a car-friendly development which means the community and transit planning must be in lock-step. What a novel idea!

All you are doing is moving a few 1,000's riders from one area to another area and not gaining more riders.

All VIVA Blue buses would stop RHC and that less than 1,000 riders per peak hour. YRT 99 would stop at RHC. Pink is finally kill off.

Rest of YRT routes going to Finch will go to Steeles except the the Clark and 77 routes that will used the Clark Station.

Over all, bus ridership does not justify the cost of the subway north of Steeles.

Where ridership maybe gain with the relocation of the line is from the car people, but that only at peak time and about 2,000 riders.

Langstaff will add some riders, but I expect the bulk of them will use GO to get to the Toronto Centre.

All transit systems will save operation cost by going to Steeles than Finch, to the point you able to cut some buses from various routes and still use the same current schedule.

Unless Langstaff area has a parking standard of 50% or less to the point of none per unit, it will not be a transit city.

Regardless what you removed from the road for cars with the line going to RHC, they will be replace within 10 years after the line is open by new drivers.

At the end of the day, you will not only have the same traffic issue as today, but will be worse.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

Are the secondary plans for the Downsview lands and Sheppard corridor not designed to hold the same amount of residents as the RHC and Langstaff lands plan?

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

Are the secondary plans for the Downsview lands and Sheppard corridor not designed to hold the same amount of residents as the RHC and Langstaff lands plan?

RHC + Langstaff would be about 50,000 residents and (IIRC) 40,000 jobs. That doesn't include another 35K or so along Yonge, between Steeles and Hwy.7, to say nothing of 16th. So, I think Downsview might be roughly on par as any one of those components but if you're point is that the corridor there is contingent on the subway, I agree.

@drum118 - obviously simply getting buses off the road is not reason to build a subway. I said there is nonetheless value there and while I won't try to put a $ on it, it seems obvious you benefit (in terms of $, traffic and GHGs) by getting all that traffic off the road. It's silly to argue "all you are doing is moving a few 1,000's riders from one area to another area" when the benefits of having transit as close to peoples' doorsteps as possible are obvious. Sometimes people complain you're building subways out into nowheresville-suburbia and other times people complain you're building the transit where the people who ride it live...I thought that was the whole point, actually.

Anyway, it's a moot point since, as said here by me and elsewhere by others, there is plenty of potential for new ridership both amongst the existing community and the huge, planned future community. Contrary to popular opinion, not everyone is going downtown and GO is useless for someone who wants to get from Yonge/7 to Yonge/Shep or Yonge/Eg or, frankly, anywhere north of Bloor. Langstaff is supposed to be a live/work community so if the bulk of people are just taking GO to Bay and King the community will fail and an underused subway will be the least of the problems.

I forget the parking standard in Langstaff but it is certainly well below average. The target modal split at buildout is 80/20. That's obviously hugely ambitious, but that's the plan and if you want to make sure it fails the best thing you can do is deny it high-order transit.

 

[Electrify]

If there is talk of putting a station at 16th Avenue, then inevitably there will be talk of continuing up to Major MacKenzie. This will have the effect of making the Richmond Hill GO line useless, and drastically lowering its ridership.

If a subway along Don Mills Road were built as well, then I suspect it would make sense to just shut down the Richmond Hill line. Unlike the other GO lines (like Lakeshore, Milton, Georgetown), the Richmond Hill line is not all that useful for passenger service. The Richmond Hill line takes such a roundabout winding route through the Don Valley, managing to miss almost every major trip generator there, that the combination of Yonge line extension + Don Mills subway would be vastly superior to the Richmond Hill line despite high cost, and the Richmond Hill line cannot be expanded north of Steeles due to heavy freight traffic.

Also, if Yonge North is getting a subway then Sheppard should get a subway too. The densities are pretty similar, I suspect that the ridership on both would be similar.

Hard to say. The Richmond Hill line is one of the busiest GO runs considering its restricted schedule. The line is also being extended north Stouffville and Bloomington Rd. Speed wise, they would be very close, though the GO train is a far more pleasant and comfortable ride.

One thing to keep in mind is that we are far more likely to see frequent or at least hourly GO trains on the line LONG before we see the Yonge line extended north of Steeles. In fact, I predict once this happens, there will be a considerable drop in usage at Finch station.

 

[andrewpmk]

But density is only one factor -- feeder routes also have huge importance in the Toronto model. (Just look at the Danforth line to see this -- hardly a high-rise in sight.) The Sheppard subway extension would be fed by a handful of north-south bus routes, some of which only begin 4km north at Steeles. Yonge Street, on the other hand, has quite a large number of routes converging on it, including several long-haul routes and 3 Viva lines, plus the 407 Transitway in the future. I would say that this is a far more significant source of ridership than a few condo towers around stations. (All the condos that have sprouted around Bayview station, for example, have hardly produced astounding ridership numbers.)

Plus, as insertnamehere said, the Yonge line goes straight downtown while the Sheppard line doesn't. That's definitely an important factor, especially since we're constantly being told how much people hate transfers. Anyone using the Sheppard line to get downtown will automatically have one more transfer than someone using the Yonge line.

Most people in the Greater Toronto Area do not work downtown. However, the Sheppard line can be used to get downtown, just as it can be used to get to North York Centre, Scarborough Centre, York U, Downsview, etc. The Sheppard subway will get people off congested Highway 401 and congested Sheppard Avenue in rush hour. Even if a lot of people in these condos drive (as is clearly true with the Bayview/Sheppard condos), more people driving will make 401 and Sheppard more congested causing other people to switch to using transit in rush hour. Plus the Sheppard subway isn't very useful right now because it doesn't go very far, whereas extending it would make it much more useful.

Plus the Sheppard subway extension would cross a whole bunch of north south bus routes (Bathurst, Victoria Park, Pharmacy North, Warden, Birchmount, Kennedy, McCowan, etc.) and connect to a whole bunch of bus routes at Scarborough Centre. The Sheppard subway would have just as many feeder bus routes as the Yonge subway. If there were an effort to run more north south buses into Markham, this would generate additional ridership.

Furthermore, there is just as much development potential on Sheppard as there is on Yonge. There is a large industrial area at Sheppard/Kennedy that is being converted into the Metrogate complex, the Downsview airport could be redeveloped, and there are many strip plazas that could be torn down for redevelopment.

The widely different ridership estimates for Yonge North and Sheppard obviously shows how easy is to manipulate ridership estimates for political reasons, by over/underestimating future redevelopment potential. 14,000 per hour at Richmond Hill Centre is outrageously high and will not happen unless the big box stores at Highway 7/Yonge are redeveloped to North York Centre-like densities. The outrageously lowballed ridership estimates on Sheppard were clearly biased to justify LRT and assume almost no development at all in NYCC or elsewhere along Sheppard.

 

[leopetr]

14,000 per hour at Richmond Hill Centre is outrageously high and will not happen unless the big box stores at Highway 7/Yonge are redeveloped to North York Centre-like densities.

Bayview/Highway 7 is well along the way to redeveloping to North York-like densities. So is the Warden/Highway 7/Enterprise/Kennedy corridor. When York Region says they are going to densify a place, I believe them.

 

[nfitz]

The outrageously lowballed ridership estimates on Sheppard were clearly biased to justify LRT and assume almost no development at all in NYCC or elsewhere along Sheppard.

I really don't think "It's a conspiracy" is going to cut it. There have been several estimates recently, by several different groups, all low. I don't think the pro-subway RTES report from the 1990s was much higher.

If your convinced that it's really a conspiracy though, file a complain with the appropriate regulatory body about incompetence.

 

[andrewpmk]

Bayview/Highway 7 is well along the way to redeveloping to North York-like densities. So is the Warden/Highway 7/Enterprise/Kennedy corridor. When York Region says they are going to densify a place, I believe them.

All the density is east of Yonge though, between just east of Bayview and Kennedy. I do not believe that 14,000/hour at Richmond Hill Centre is possible from feeder buses alone, since there is nothing at Yonge/Highway 7 except big box stores. This would require overcrowded buses every minute or two coming in from Viva Purple, Viva Blue (north of Highway 7), the 407 Transitway GO buses, and other routes (like 88 Bathurst and 91 Bayview which would likely be rerouted). Remember that most people in York Region do not work downtown (since this is a commute of 1 hour each way or more) so many of these bus riders would be going from York Region to North York, or from North York to York Region. It might be possible to get 14,000/hour on Yonge between Finch and Steeles, but I would expect ridership to taper off gradually north of there.

On the other hand, a fair amount of development already exists at Scarborough Centre, which the Sheppard LRT would bypass (bad decision - not having a spur to STC at the very least). Telus employs a lot of people there for instance (2 office buildings), which are still in use even though Telus moved a lot of employees downtown. Much of the demand on a Sheppard subway in rush hour at STC would be coming from/going to feeder buses, but not all of it.

It is far too easy to produce wildly different ridership estimates by using high or low estimates of development growth. No one really knows how much development will happen in the future because this depends on the state of the economy and other things. If there is a boom then LRT will be totally overwhelmed soon after opening, if there is a severe recession and 20% unemployment rate then the subways or LRTs will be underused. However, it seems clear to me that with similar amounts of redevelopment, Yonge North should not have wildly higher ridership than Sheppard East.

 

[EnviroTO]

However, it seems clear to me that with similar amounts of redevelopment, Yonge North should not have wildly higher ridership than Sheppard East.

Isn't there is wildly higher ridership on Yonge between Highway 7 and Finch now than there is traveling from Scarborough Centre to Don Mills without growth? At STC there are significantly more people headed to downtown than North York, and at Langstaff the bulk of the traffic heads south on Yonge. It makes no sense at STC to provide more capacity to Don Mills than to Kennedy.

 

[andrewpmk]

Isn't there is wildly higher ridership on Yonge between Highway 7 and Finch now than there is traveling from Scarborough Centre to Don Mills without growth? At STC there are significantly more people headed to downtown than North York, and at Langstaff the bulk of the traffic heads south on Yonge. It makes no sense at STC to provide more capacity to Don Mills than to Kennedy.

Rush hour AM peak buses on Yonge, between Highway 7 and Finch:

Viva Blue - every 4 minutes
Viva Blue A - approx every 15 minutes
Viva Pink - approx every 15 minutes
99 - every 12 minutes

Rush hour AM peak buses on Sheppard east of Don Mills:

85 - 15 buses/hour (about every 4 minutes)
190 - 10 buses/hour (about every 6 minutes)

I am not counting the YRT express routes (300,301,302,303), 98E (runs in PM rush hour only), GO buses along Yonge St, or bus routes that only run part of the way from Highway 7 to Finch (for Yonge: TTC 42, 53, 60, 125, YRT 2, 5, 23, 77, 88, 91; for Sheppard: TTC 167, 224).

If you look at Yonge between Finch and Steeles ridership is clearly much higher than any part of Sheppard east of Don Mills, but north of Steeles and especially north of Royal Orchard ridership drops considerably. Ridership on Yonge north of Royal Orchard might be a bit higher than Sheppard due to the use of articulated buses, but I don't think the difference is enormous. On the other hand, ridership on parallel routes to Sheppard (Finch East and York Mills) is much higher than ridership on Bathurst and Bayview in York Region, so we could see people switching to the Sheppard subway from these routes.

Also I find it hard to believe that if we start to see massive redevelopment at Yonge/Highway 7 replacing the big box stores (10000s of residents and jobs), that we won't see similar massive redevelopment at Downsview, NYCC, Consumers Road and STC. This simply doesn't make much sense.