[Juan_Lennon416]

The urban planners from North York sat on their butts during and after the construction of the Sheppard Subway and pushed for very little high-density development along Sheppard Avenue East! Gotta love urban planners...they do more harm than good!

 

[M II A II R II K]

Since the Sheppard Subway is already there I say it would be better to construct nothing if they're not going to be extending the subway any time soon. And if it had to be LRT better off running the sam LRTs down the tunnel we already have and eliminate the transfer.

 

[M II A II R II K]

Also Toronto should adopt something similar to L.A.'s 30/10 plan which is dedicated to making up for lost time stalling in the past. Our Network 2011 only consists of the Fairview Mall line as it stands.

 

[Fresh Start]

Since the Sheppard Subway is already there I say it would be better to construct nothing if they're not going to be extending the subway any time soon. And if it had to be LRT better off running the sam LRTs down the tunnel we already have and eliminate the transfer.

+1

What's their rush? To replace today's fast and efficent bus network along Sheppard East with years of on-street road construction that'll bring traffic to a crawl's pace? When the Sheppard Line corridor permanently loses riders to the 401 due to all the delays we'll look to no one else to blame for that other than the nepotistic outgoing Mayor.

 

[GraphicMatt]

Haha, did you just use the word 'nepotistic' because you thought it sounded good? Does David Miller's son run an LRT company or something?

 

[Fresh Start]

No, that was just another purposeful error. j/k

Miller does care more about crafting a legacy to muse about in his memoirs though rather than to actually help struggling transit users get around far more dense corridors and areas of the City than east of McCowan along Sheppard.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

When all of this will be build, I can see that will justify the Sheppard line going to Sheppard/Jane via Sheppard/Keele

When? When? What do you mean when? We are building a number of subway lines on the premise that there will be intesification and TOD within the next 20 - 40 years. But you want to wait until the Downsview plan is complete before connecting it to the Sheppard line. Why not build it now to encourage the development rather than wait for it to happen

 

[Rainforest]

Better than that...here's what they should do:

1) Subway to STC. Even at $320M/KM. That's $1920M.
2) Use the remaining $780 million to build LRT along McCowan from STC into Markham and a spur along the corridor from Sheppard/Progress to MTC. This would allow for a Don Mills-Malvern service, a Malvern-STC via McCowan service and improved service on McCowan itself, which is already a very busy corridor.
3) Bus hub at MTC. Or just extend the LRT further north, up Neilson to terminate at Morningside Heights.

That's all providing they keep the SELRT.

What's a waste is spending a ton of money to build grade-separated LRT east of McCowan when it's just not needed by any measure, wasting money there, while STC is seeing remarkable residential and commercial growth that's pushing it closer and closer into subway territory.

Probably a good idea; but there are two concerns:

1) Is there enough space to build the McCowan LRT link between STC and Sheppard cheaply? In particular, is the McCowan bridge over 401 wide enough?

If it is not cheap, then extending the subway 1.7 km north of STC and up to Sheppard might be a better idea, as it would be easier to operate SELRT with fewer branches.

2) STC is a major hub, but how much more traffic growth can it absorb? Space for buses / LRT, and space for riders are not unlimited. At some point, it might get clogged with buses and people, like the Finch subway station today.

Moving the nothern LRT and bus connections to the Sheppard / McCowan subway terminal would mitigate that.

 

[kEiThZ]

1) Is there enough space to build the McCowan LRT link between STC and Sheppard cheaply? In particular, is the McCowan bridge over 401 wide enough?

I don't see why there wouldn't be enough room. That bridge is 6 lanes wide, not couting the entry and exit ramps for the 401. Take away two lanes and re-purpose them for LRT.

If it is not cheap, then extending the subway 1.7 km north of STC and up to Sheppard might be a better idea, as it would be easier to operate SELRT with fewer branches.

Another alternative might even be just to run at-grade TC style LRT down Progress. For the life of me, I can't understand the thought process behind elevating the thing past McCowan. There's only a few spots enroute where some would be necessary to accomodate the rapid gradient changes.

2) STC is a major hub, but how much more traffic growth can it absorb? Space for buses / LRT, and space for riders are not unlimited. At some point, it might get clogged with buses and people, like the Finch subway station today.

Moving the nothern LRT and bus connections to the Sheppard / McCowan subway terminal would mitigate that.

And that's why STC needs a subway. This is what some people don't understand. STC is already congested. Taking away the buses from Malvern won't save it from being congested if the trunk line is an LRT.

But this is why I have said that Scarborough needs a subway AND a few LRTs. They just picked the wrong corridors. They need an LRT to Malvern Town Centre where a bus terminal would feed riders to the line. They don't need LRT to the Zoo. They need LRT on McCowan North. They don't need it on Morningside.

I do think a stop at McCowan and Morningside is a waste though. McCowan needs LRT with closer stop spacing. This might allow a loop around Progress and Consilium to serve this dense pocket of STC.

 

[Rainforest]

For the life of me, I can't understand the thought process behind elevating the thing past McCowan. There's only a few spots enroute where some would be necessary to accomodate the rapid gradient changes.

They want the entire SLRT extension to be fully grade separate in order to enable long trains, tight headway and reliable operation needed for the STC - Kennedy segment. The demand west of STC dictates technology choices east of STC.

The 2006 Soberman's report estimated the SRT-to-LRT conversion of the existing line (without extension) at only $500 million. The latest Metrolinx's quote for the conversion plus extension to Sheppard / Progress is $2,450 million of "escalated dollars", i.e. with inflation counted in.

Even if the $500 million cost of conversion translates to $700 million of "escalated dollars", that leaves $1,750 million as the cost of 4-km extension east of McCowan. And to my understanding, this amount does not even include the carhouse (which is priced into SELRT).

So, either those 4 fully grade-separate kilometers are that insanely expensive (1,750 / 4 = 437 million / km), or maybe the Soberman's report somehow underestimated the cost of converting the existing 6 km of SRT.

 

[kEiThZ]

^ A bit of both? The extension does involve a short tunnel and an underground station.

But yeah, that's what I find bothersome about this whole thing. The requirements from south of STC are driving the project and inflating cost east of McCowan. If they ran a subway to STC, a 2 car LRT to Malvern Town Centre down Progress or McCowan-Sheppard-old rail corridor, running every 8-10 minutes would probably be sufficient. It could be cheaply done and would not have to be grade-separated.

Combining the two projects is the worst of the both worlds. The STC-Malvern link costs significantly more than it should. And the Kennedy-STC portion doesn't get the transfer eliminating subway extension that it could.

 

[nfitz]

Better than that...here's what they should do:

1) Subway to STC. Even at $320M/KM. That's $1920M.
2) Use the remaining $780 million to build LRT along McCowan from STC ...

What remaining dollars? In 2009 dollars, there is $1.4 billion. You just spent $1.9 billion. If you are looking at future spending for SRT, then most of it is paid out in 2018-2020; and you need about 10 years of inflation on your subway construction costs. In ten years we've gone from about $180 million/km to $300 million/km. We do that again in the next 10 years, and you need to use $500 million/km. So that would cost $3 billion for subway to SC.

In current dollars, the cost of subway from Kennedy to SC is more than the cost of upgrading the existing RT, and extending to Sheppard. You can't mix up 2009 spending and 2019 spending to make your budget balance!

 

[Ansem]

When? When? What do you mean when? We are building a number of subway lines on the premise that there will be intesification and TOD within the next 20 - 40 years. But you want to wait until the Downsview plan is complete before connecting it to the Sheppard line. Why not build it now to encourage the development rather than wait for it to happen

I dont want to wait. I'm a fan of the Sheppard line going to STC. This city is so shortsighted...
With the bew Downsview project we could have a TRUE north crosstown from Sheppard-Weston to STC but thanks to the LRT...not happening

If it was up to me, the Sheppard line extension to Weston would be already happening...
Anyone tried the 84 Sheppard West bus at rush hours knows what I'm talking about...

It's not only about the Downsview area but Sheppard West itself between Yonge and Allen road is densifying really fast.
You can see the bungalows being demolished to build medium rise condos.

Very soon the 84 bus won't be enough and Sheppard is too narrow for BRT or LRT...only option is subway

 

[Rainforest]

What remaining dollars? In 2009 dollars, there is $1.4 billion. You just spent $1.9 billion. If you are looking at future spending for SRT, then most of it is paid out in 2018-2020; and you need about 10 years of inflation on your subway construction costs. In ten years we've gone from about $180 million/km to $300 million/km. We do that again in the next 10 years, and you need to use $500 million/km. So that would cost $3 billion for subway to SC.

In current dollars, the cost of subway from Kennedy to SC is more than the cost of upgrading the existing RT, and extending to Sheppard. You can't mix up 2009 spending and 2019 spending to make your budget balance!

Do you expect the construction costs to keep escalating 6% or more a year? OK, that was the rate during the last 10 years, but what is the historical average over a longer period? At 6% a year, soon it won't be possible to build anything, even residential dwellings and roads.

Furthermore, not sure why most of SRT expenses ought to be paid out in 2018-2020. They can start actual construction at the end of 2015 (right after the Games) or sometime in 2016; all design work can be done before that.

I suspect that the cost equivalent in 2009 dollars is now more than $1.4 Billion.

 

[nfitz]

Do you expect the construction costs to keep escalating 6% or more a year?

For another 10 years? Yes, I do. And here's why. The primary costs (other than salaries) for construction like this is oil, steel, and stone. I expect oil prices to keep advancing; China and India are still growing, and I think worldwide demand is going to increase faster than supply; in addition, I don't think drilling in North America is going to get any easier. For similar reasons steel and other commodities are also going to keep increasing. Stone is driven more by local conditions (though oil pays a big part in stone prices), and in the GTA the provincial government hasn't done much to make it easier to licence the high-grade stone good for concrete; the amount licenced in the last 30 years is much smaller than the amount that is used, and with an increasingly smaller supply, and less suppliers, prices here will likely increase significantly over the next 10 to 20 years. I don't expect salaries to increase by 6% a year, but I expect that the other factors will increase much more than 6% a year.

OK, that was the rate during the last 10 years, but what is the historical average over a longer period?

That's a good question! I'd be interested to know.

At 6% a year, soon it won't be possible to build anything, even residential dwellings and roads.

I don't disagree ... though perhaps there can be improvements in efficiency. Road repaving for example is a lot more efficient than it used to be, with those machines that scour off the top of the pavement ... and then let you repave, using the remaining pavement as an excellent base. In the last 20 years or so where this has been done, it seems to me that the quality of the roads around the cities and province have improved immensely to what they were in the 1970s and 1980s. Remember how bad they were then? Remember driving on the 401 with miles of ... bump-bump ..... bump-bump ... bump-bump ....

Furthermore, not sure why most of SRT expenses ought to be paid out in 2018-2020. They can start actual construction at the end of 2015 (right after the Games) or sometime in 2016; all design work can be done before that.

Well they could ... they could also start Finch in 2011 ... it's a function of when the cash is available. From looking at the cash flows, Eglinton is going first ...

I suspect that the cost equivalent in 2009 dollars is now more than $1.4 Billion.

Well it was ... that's why they shortened it to Sheppard!