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robmausser said:
Is 4405 in service yet?? Haven't heard anything about it in a while.
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Been nothing to tell. The only delivery since July was 4404 last November. The recent CEO report indicated that 4405 is anticipated before the end of January and enter service before the end of February with 4406 following in February and entering service in March. However post-4406 cars are delayed indefinitely due to supply chain issues.
 
TheTigerMaster said:
Holy shit. This situation feels so much more depressing when you put it like that.
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Well on the brighter side, the 2015 TTC capital budget is based on 27 streetcar deliveries this year, and over 30 next year, though perversely assumes we had 9 last year, rather than 3 ... so the numbers seem to be based on a pre-strike 1/month delivery rate.

And last week's TTC customer service promise to have 509, 510, and 511 converted by end of 2015 required 28 cars - so 25 this year.

But the proof is in the pudding.
 
nfitz said:
Well on the brighter side, the 2015 TTC capital budget is based on 27 streetcar deliveries this year, and over 30 next year, though perversely assumes we had 9 last year, rather than 3 ... so the numbers seem to be based on a pre-strike 1/month delivery rate.

And last week's TTC customer service promise to have 509, 510, and 511 converted by end of 2015 required 28 cars - so 25 this year.

But the proof is in the pudding.
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That's a lot of capital $ locked up on something that is not going to happen...better to bring spending forward for something that can get done rather than do what we did this year and underspend the capital budget by $500 million...that's almost an entire LRT route vs of underspending, in just one year.

G
 
georgevicbell said:
That's a lot of capital $ locked up on something that is not going to happen...better to bring spending forward for something that can get done rather than do what we did this year and underspend the capital budget by $500 million...that's almost an entire LRT route vs of underspending, in just one year.
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The money is coming out of city debt. Not much advantage to spending it on something else instead!
 
nfitz said:
Well on the brighter side, the 2015 TTC capital budget is based on 27 streetcar deliveries this year, and over 30 next year, though perversely assumes we had 9 last year, rather than 3 ... so the numbers seem to be based on a pre-strike 1/month delivery rate.

And last week's TTC customer service promise to have 509, 510, and 511 converted by end of 2015 required 28 cars - so 25 this year.

But the proof is in the pudding.
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All that and 42 out of the 52 ALRVs were planned to be retired in 2014 in conjunction with the 43 Flexity cars that were going to be in service. If you really want to see how the situation has changed, go back and re-read earlier pages of this thread, going back to 2011-2012. Drum118 was at one point telling us there were going to be something like 15 Flexity cars for the first day on Spadina, then it was 6, and in the end there were actually two.
 
nfitz said:
The money is coming out of city debt. Not much advantage to spending it on something else instead!
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Sure there is, interest rates are low, so you should be taking out debt if you have a plan to do so...if you get $20 a month to buy groceries and one week everything is on sale - even if they are out of toilet paper you spend your full $20, you buy some cans of soup. You don't just spend $15....

We know we are going to need to be doing a bunch of stuff...so we should be taking out the debt...my guess is they are probably doing this anyways, but, they don't have anything to spend it on...if we are taking out debt but not spending it on things, it's essentially debt that is not working for us...it'd be like taking out a huge loan now to buy a house 3 years from now...

There are lots of other issues with bad estimates - it means you get lots of unexpected costs (like refurbishing the currentt vehicles), other capital projects can then be delayed (rewiring, doing all the street cutouts) etc. which have startup and shutdown costs....in this case, it seems like we don't even really have any estimates anymore...but we're still going to have everything one by 2019!!! You betcha!!!!
 
georgevicbell said:
Sure there is, interest rates are low, so you should be taking out debt if you have a plan to do so...if you get $20 a month to buy groceries and one week everything is on sale - even if they are out of toilet paper you spend your full $20, you buy some cans of soup. You don't just spend $15....
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But Toronto is close to it's legislated debt ceiling. If you spend the money on something now, you won't be allowed to spend it in the future, because you'd hit the debt ceiling and be unable to borrow anything further.
 
Tuscani01 said:
But again, the limit is self imposed. It's not finite if the city can simply raise the limit.
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It's self imposed to achieve certain interest rates from 3rd parties who lend the city money. It's not an arbitrary number picked from thin air by the city. It's an arbitrary number (ratio to income) picked out of thin air by lenders.

Raising property tax levels or dropping interest rates increases comfortable debt carrying capacity.
 
DarnDirtyApe said:
Indeed - the money has to be paid back at some point, and in the meantime the city has to pay interest on that debt.
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The city doesn't just pay interest on debt. It pays principal ... I'm not sure what the average amortization is though. But isn't it a fairly short period? 20 years or so on new debt?
 
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