Then I would be wrong, obviously, and we might get the cars we were promised. However all historical precedent with this company's performance on this contract points against that.
Possible. Probable.
If Bombardier is going to complete the contract - and let's assume they are - then they will not magically begin to deliver 40 on Jan 1, 2017 which is their 2017 promised delivery. Production ramps up whether you are making tomato soup, umbrellas or streetcars. It does not magically jump from one level to another overnight.
While the current delay looks like further failure and dicking around - and that is a reasonable expectation under the circumstances - it is more likely that something like the following is happening.
1. Make more space in TBay. If you are going to ramp up production, you need way more space for raw materials and WIP - work in progress.
2. To that end, all the bits and pieces and jigs and tools for the Metrolinx Flexty project will be being moved to Kingston.
3. La Pocatiere is learning how to make the bogies or what-the-hell-ever they are going to contribute in light of the failures from Mexico.
4. TBay is ramping up.
If you are going to deliver 40 vehicles in one year, then you had better be ready for Jan 1 or 2018 will be even more of a shit show.
40 vehicles is more or less 1 per week.
Under the plan I am putting forth here, you could reasonably expect 4 vehicles from November 15 to December 31 and a steady stream thereafter. If that can not be accomplished, then the whole project really is in serious doubt.
Patience, my friends.
As an aside, the TTC now has to have a commissioning team, and plan to receive a vehicle a week. The next choke point will be in receiving and commissioning the vehicles themselves, while doing the regular maintenance on the in-service fleet. However, at some point next year experienced CLRV and ALRV mechanics will be in lesser demand as vehicles are withdrawn from service so let's hope that the good folk running the TTC have factored this into their planning.