[nfitz]

I'm not saying the Sheppard subway has to be priority number one. But the idea that there's no value in it because it's "a gold plated service for 50 000 riders" serving "a mall" is patently ridiculous. That's some US Republican style misdirection.

Perhaps not the clearest or best statement. But it's still a service for 50 000 riders ... probably less, as the peak load of the extension is between Don Mills Road and Victoria Park. I believe the previous estimates were about 50% lower east of Agincourt.

 

[kEiThZ]

Perhaps not the clearest or best statement. But it's still a service for 50 000 riders ... probably less, as the peak load of the extension is between Don Mills Road and Victoria Park. I believe the previous estimates were about 50% lower east of Agincourt.

It's getting 50 000 riders today. So how would it be a service for 50 000 riders with an addition?

In any event, like I said, I'm not suggesting that a Sheppard subway extension has to be Pri 1. Personally, I'd like to see it done in stages. Maybe just till Agincourt first. Or even VP first. Anyway, what really bothers me is this attitude that it's useless, there's no utility to it and it should never be built. That's extreme.

What I also disliked was the fact that the previous administration basically had the same mentality and decided to try and "fix the mistake" by forestalling any future subway expansion on Sheppard with that billion dollar LRT.

Why can't there ever be some compromise between a long term vision and short-term needs? Yes, Sheppard East needs something (or more accurately the east-end needs something). But the city as a whole, also needs a northern cross-town subway in the long run. Could they not have balanced the two by pursuing an incremental strategy? Say just extend the subway to VP? Or could they not have just left Sheppard alone (for future subway expansion) and gone for a full lenght LRT on Finch (a busier corridor). That option would also have provided relief for Sheppard while leaving the corridor open to future expansion. What's the need to ram through an LRT on Sheppard East?

 

[kEiThZ]

As for the politics of it. I don't think any of the 3 major parties are going to commit to the Sheppard Subway....not until they know there's votes in it.

Hudak saying he's open to it? Doesn't cost anything to say you're open to it.

I could see them committing to a Yonge extension before Sheppard. And oddly enough, for the next 5-10 years, I could see them building Sheppard before the DRL. Just based on politics.....actually, I predict anything in the 905 built will trump most subway projects in Toronto. A smart Toronto strategy here would be pursue to GO electrification and express service, along with fare integration, effectively boosting service in the city to near subway levels, while benefitting 905ers....something all politicians would find easy to support.

 

[nfitz]

It's getting 50 000 riders today. So how would it be a service for 50 000 riders with an addition?

That's riders for the entire line. The further east you go, the less you see. You might well see 50,000 ... or even 60-70,000 at Victoria Park. But less at Agincourt. And even less by Scarborough Centre.

 

[kEiThZ]

That's riders for the entire line. The further east you go, the less you see. You might well see 50,000 ... or even 60-70,000 at Victoria Park. But less at Agincourt. And even less by Scarborough Centre.

Personally, I believe this is flawed. I fail to see how the line reaching STC, a far denser (and busier) node than anything else on Sheppard (save Yonge/Sheppard) would bring in less ridership than say hitting Warden. That's just blatantly ignoring the network effects of connecting major nodes and simplistically assuming that the further away you get from Yonge ridership will drop.

Even the SELRT study made no such assumption. They simply skipped STC...that's the reason they had a steady decline in ridership the further east they went.

 

[nfitz]

Personally, I believe this is flawed. I fail to see how the line reaching STC, a far denser (and busier) node than anything else on Sheppard (save Yonge/Sheppard) would bring in less ridership than say hitting Warden. That's just blatantly ignoring the network effects of connecting major nodes and simplistically assuming that the further away you get from Yonge ridership will drop.

And yet that's what the TTC study on this subway line shows.

Even the SELRT study made no such assumption. They simply skipped STC...that's the reason they had a steady decline in ridership the further east they went.

That study didn't cover this line - I don't see why it's relevant.

 

[kEiThZ]

And yet that's what the TTC study on this subway line shows.

Assuming the original report when Sheppard was built....did it take into account all the 30 storey condos popping up at STC?

(ps. Could you share the link? I would actually love to read their rationale.)

That study didn't cover this line - I don't see why it's relevant.

And that was a huge mistake. Imagine if they built the Spadina extension and skipped York U. Yet, it's okay to ditch the biggest node in Scarborough?

 

[nfitz]

And that was a huge mistake. Imagine if they built the Spadina extension and skipped York U. Yet, it's okay to ditch the biggest node in Scarborough?

That node is served in many ways - including a direct connection to the Sheppard LRT.

In addition the door was left open for a future subway extension to STC from Sheppard and Kennedy.

 

[kEiThZ]

That node is served in many ways - including a direct connection to the Sheppard LRT.

Did they actually budget for a spur?

In addition the door was left open for a future subway extension to STC from Sheppard and Kennedy.

A laughable notion. The whole idea of the SELRT was to kill subway expansion along Sheppard. And if ever a corridor had a reasonable case for subway expansion it was Kennedy to STC (at least it would have allowed the SRT to stay in service during construction). We both know that if the SELRT came into service, there would be no eastward subway expansion on Sheppard...at least not in our lifetimes. And now there a Kennedy-STC extension seems just as unlikely either. That said, as much as I wanted to see Eglinton stay on Eglinton right to the end, with the Scarborough-Eglinton, there's at least potential for an extension to Malvern in the future and there's no transfer between STC and Yonge, and it doesn't rule out future LRT service on Eglinton East. So I'm not seeing all downsides here.

 

[nfitz]

That statement is just completely bizarre and paranoid.

If you can't have a sensible discussion, I don't see the point. There's no business case for extending the Sheppard subway - there never was, and we discussed this at length previously. I don't see any point on you rehashing this again. The project is what it is ... it might continue, but we all know that ridership into Scarborough Centre will be lower than what it current is entering Yonge/Sheppard. Particularly once the Eglinton line is completed, and provides a direct connection from Scarborough Centre to Eglinton/Yonge as fast as the subway would take from Scarborough Centre to Sheppard/Yonge.

 

[kEiThZ]

That statement is just completely bizarre and paranoid.

That's your opinion. It's a fact that the SELRT would preclude subway expansion for the rest of my natural life, at a minimum (and I'm a young-ish guy). And really if I'm wrong, can you explain why they picked Sheppard over Finch....where the buses are actually more crowded. What made Sheppard East a priority? Tell me.

If you can't have a sensible discussion, I don't see the point.

I consider my points to be quite sensible. If you get frustrated with them, that's your problem.

There's no business case for extending the Sheppard subway - there never was, and we discussed this at length previously.

And like several of us have said, the argument for Sheppard goes beyond extending it a few suburban blocks. There's no business case in that. Even I will grant you that. But there's certainly a case to be made for a proper northern cross-town (not that convoluted Finch West-Sheppard East crap) from Scarborough to Downsview (at least). That was never properly studied (or at least not in any recent memory), even though it was a rather foundational concept of the Sheppard subway. Heck, even Metrolinx's effort to connect Finch West to Sheppard East implicitly endorses the idea that the city could use a northern cross-town.

Aside from that, is this whole idea of artificial standards. By international norms the Sheppard subway is a success. It's only by some strange Toronto standard that it's considered a failure.

I don't see any point on you rehashing this again. The project is what it is ... it might continue, but we all know that ridership into Scarborough Centre will be lower than what it current is entering Yonge/Sheppard.

Lower than Yonge/Sheppard? Yes. Lower than Warden and Sheppard? I have my doubts. And that's what you are saying the reports suggest (that's why I'd like the links...to read the reports myself).

Particularly once the Eglinton line is completed, and provides a direct connection from Scarborough Centre to Eglinton/Yonge as fast as the subway would take from Scarborough Centre to Sheppard/Yonge.

That helps riders bound for downtown and mid-town. It does not help anybody bound for anywhere in the northern half of the city...which was the point of the Sheppard Subway (and Metrolinx's SELRT-FWLRT combo).

 

[kEiThZ]

Again, none of this is to say that I think the Sheppard Subway should be a priority.

I would have liked to have seen a mix of solution from Transit City. Put the DRL front and centre. A two-stop extension on Sheppard for now (till VP). A Bloor-Danforth extension to STC. The work on some LRT (Eglinton (as one continuous end-to-end line), Finch West, Waterfront West, STC to Malvern, etc.) in stages.

They lost my vote when they went one-size-fits-all and considered Morningside to be LRT worthy (even though most UTSC students don't ride up Morningside) while ignoring Ellesmere, Kingston Road and Finch East.

 

[nfitz]

Aside from that, is this whole idea of artificial standards. By international norms the Sheppard subway is a success. It's only by some strange Toronto standard that it's considered a failure.

The standard is simple. There's probably near a half-dozen over subway lines in Toronto that could be built with higher ridership. Eglinton, Spadina Extension, DRL, Yonge extension, Scarborough Town Centre extension ...

It's a poor use of money that could better spend. $4.8 billion to complete this? That would finish about 70 km of surface LRT. And you'd have more than 50,000 riders on those lines.

It may have it's uses, but it's not necessary. It's the biggest gravy-train idea ever. And now they are looking for taxpayers to pay for it. It's obscene, it's disrespectful for hard-working taxpayers.

 

[kEiThZ]

The standard is simple. There's probably near a half-dozen over subway lines in Toronto that could be built with higher ridership. Eglinton, Spadina Extension, DRL, Yonge extension, Scarborough Town Centre extension ...

Right. And that's the reason I suggested that Sheppard need not be priority. A 2-stop extension to VP would have eliminated a lot of the congestion issues they had at Don Mills and Sheppard.

It's a poor use of money that could better spend. $4.8 billion to complete this? That would finish about 70 km of surface LRT. And you'd have more than 50,000 riders on those lines.

I concur. However, if you're going to spend a billion on Sheppard, I'd suggest that it's quite debatable that you'll get a huge amount of additional new ridership (you might draw some from Finch or Ellesmere) from a two stop extension (or even three...funds permitting), over an LRT to Meadowvale.

It may have it's uses, but it's not necessary. It's the biggest gravy-train idea ever. And now they are looking for taxpayers to pay for it. It's obscene, it's disrespectful for hard-working taxpayers.

And that's why it's a good thing Ford is not spending $4.8 billion worth of taxpayer's money on this. If he somehow leverages $1-2 billion of taxpayer funding and gets the private sector to build the subway all the way to STC (that would be miraculous), then we'll be left better off. If he fails, no taxpayer money was really wasted, since nothing will have been built and no taxpayer funds will have been expended.

Really...if he somehow manages to pull off his public-private fantasy and you get to ride a subway from Yonge to STC, you'd be complaining?

 

[nfitz]

Right. And that's the reason I suggested that Sheppard need not be priority. A 2-stop extension to VP would have eliminated a lot of the congestion issues they had at Don Mills and Sheppard.

Then I think we are fully in agreement. From the beginning of the LRT process I suggested that it made the most sense to extend the existing subway to Victoria Park, and start the LRT there - leaving the subway line in a position to be extended further east in the future if necessary (and with less stops).

And that's why it's a good thing Ford is not spending $4.8 billion worth of taxpayer's money on this. If he somehow leverages $1-2 billion of taxpayer funding and gets the private sector to build the subway all the way to STC (that would be miraculous), then we'll be left better off.

It's still taxpayer money. Either the private money reduces future taxes, or it reduces future revenue. There's no free lunch.

If he fails, no taxpayer money was really wasted, since nothing will have been built and no taxpayer funds will have been expended.

Not much ... but then 4 years from now, we are still 4-5 years from being able to get LRT running, and it could have been running in 2013 or 2014.

Really...if he somehow manages to pull off his public-private fantasy and you get to ride a subway from Yonge to STC, you'd be complaining?

If he achieves his promise of building the subway from Scarborough Centre to Downsview without any public money, like he promised - then I would stop complaining. I don't think this will happen.