[Allandale25]

^ Also, I believe the new diesel engines VIA are getting are Tier 4. That's an improvement. I believe the same rolling stock can be used for HFR if needed.

 

[roger1818]

^ Also, I believe the new diesel engines VIA are getting are Tier 4. That's an improvement. I believe the same rolling stock can be used for HFR if needed.

Correct, but just so everyone is aware, the Tier 4 emissions standards don't regulate Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions. They only regulate reduced Hydrocarbons (HC), Carbon Monoxide (CO), Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Particulate Matter (PM). You can find details about Tier 0-4 emissions standards here.

 

[kEiThZ]

*whispers* because they are.

I'll add another bit of archania for you. If the JPO found a subsidy was needed, the CIB could not sign off on an investment before the feds signed off on a subsidy. Now the process can flow through Treasury Board (program approval), then the CIB board can approve, then the JPO full report goes to the Minister of the Environment and a mandatory waiting period starts (we will hear about this if anyone is paying attention). Then the Minister/Cabinet signs off on the report, and then an event with the PM is scheduled. If the process is properly followed.

If they don't think someone will sue (or a FNMI group or person will sue) they can take the risk and do the above in just about any order.

Quite the assumption. You're telling me they decided to launch the most significant investment in intercity rail in half a century and then not actually tell the public about it in their budget?

Have you ever had politicians not loudly trumpet a major investment? Mostly this looks like messaging to me, where they are trying to get credit for improving service between Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal without actually doing that much. Helps that a new fleet will come online in the coming years.

Also, does the CIB need to make TB submissions? Wasn't the entire point of the CIB that they would bring a non-traditional, arms-length, non-political approach to infrastructure? Why would each project need TB submission and cabinet approval?

 

[kEiThZ]

You guys have to remember that expanding VIA, at least in it's current form, is a hard sell.

Ottawa has dedicated a LOT of new money for infrastructure and all of it being Green and hence improving a rail service that will expand both it's diesel fleets and usage of them goes counter to their vision of transferring Canada over to a non polluting economy.

They actually didn't commit a whole lot of new money to their "green" intiatiatives. And really not much to public transit.

I also don't see how your point can be true when they are helping transit surprised authorities buy diesel buses all over the country (even while buying some electric buses) and have even helped fund some GO expansion that still uses diesel locomotives.

 

[Allandale25]

Quite the assumption. You're telling me they decided to launch the most significant investment in intercity rail in half a century and then not actually tell the public about it in their budget?

Have you ever had politicians not loudly trumpet a major investment? Mostly this looks like messaging to me, where they are trying to get credit for improving service between Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal without actually doing that much. Helps that a new fleet will come online in the coming years.

Also, does the CIB need to make TB submissions? Wasn't the entire point of the CIB that they would bring a non-traditional, arms-length, non-political approach to infrastructure? Why would each project need TB submission and cabinet approval?

I see both as possibilities. What @Darwinkgo said above, but also you're point about cabinet approval.

It's possible they didn't feel the need to put it in the budget in terms of marketing it either because a) they want to save it for a future announcement when it can get more press given the big ticket items in the budget (like child care) and b) they might be worried about perception issues outside of the HFR corridor and blowback from other parts of the country, and as a result don't want to trumpet it too much.

This is just speculation on my part.

 

[Northern Light]

Quite the assumption. You're telling me they decided to launch the most significant investment in intercity rail in half a century and then not actually tell the public about it in their budget?

Possible.

Have you ever had politicians not loudly trumpet a major investment?

No.........but....

Its quite common to parcel out your Front-Page good news stories.

If you put them all out on the same day, you risk burying your own positive coverage, with your other positive coverage.

Its very clear that they wanted the budget to be about the Childcare piece.

I have no inside knowledge on the thinking on HFR here.........

But I have seen items concealed in the budget...........; or the bulk of the costs farmed out to a future year (meaning no substantial line-item needs to be there in the budget)

The Budget, as I'm sure you know, is a highly political document.

One must often wait for the Supplementary Estimates to find the details.

 

[Darwinkgo]

You're telling me they decided to launch the most significant investment in intercity rail in half a century and then not actually tell the public about it in their budget?

Yes. Because you might have noticed, there were a lot of $1 billion + things in the budget! $8 billion for the net zero accelerator, $30 billion for childcare. Lots of others.

In a normal year, this would likely have occupied enough mindshare and dollar value to be one of the 'top 5' announceables. This is not a normal year.

Plus why splash it around - it is going to be lost in Ontario and Quebec's COVID crisises. Just wait until June!

In the end though, since the CIB is arms length, and you want to sell the CIB's 'book' once the investment is up and running so the CIB can then support another project, the government can't announce projects for them - they have to be announced with them. The budget was not the place for that.

 

[kEiThZ]

I guess we'll see in a few weeks what reality is here.

I actually do hope I'm wrong.

 

[crs1026]

I'll add another bit of archania for you. If the JPO found a subsidy was needed, the CIB could not sign off on an investment before the feds signed off on a subsidy. Now the process can flow through Treasury Board (program approval), then the CIB board can approve, then the JPO full report goes to the Minister of the Environment and a mandatory waiting period starts (we will hear about this if anyone is paying attention). Then the Minister/Cabinet signs off on the report, and then an event with the PM is scheduled. If the process is properly followed.

If they don't think someone will sue (or a FNMI group or person will sue) they can take the risk and do the above in just about any order.

Ah....we have achieved national equality. Getting HFR approved is every bit as tortuous as getting a pipeline approved. Everybody plays by the same rules.

I'm coming around to believing this is indeed what is happening.

What helped the penny land softly was realising that $491M is roughly the amount that the Montreal-Quebec segment was said to cost, and this was the segment that was said to not have a positive ROI. So the decision posed is.... does Cabinet want a Montreal-Toronto investment that the CIB supports, or does Cabinet want the Quebec-Toronto investment, which means chipping in some money over and above what the CIB will invest. No surprise that Cabinet saw fit to make up the difference - clearly the grass routes east of Montreal want this badly.

- Paul

 

[ssiguy2]

Tier 4 is certainly better but under no stretch of the imagination is it good little alone ideal.

I think Ottawa would be far more receptive to expanding VIA if VIA had absolutely any policies on how it will decarbonise but it doesn't. Saying it's better than driving is a cop-out and as we quickly switch to zero emissions vehicles, taking VIA will be the polluting way to go.

Catenary is going to cost a fortune but it doesn't have to start there. VIA could begin testing the viability of battery or hydrogen trains and battery one's especially on shorter routes like Mon-Ott, Mon-QC, Tor-Lon/Wind. Tor-Ott-Mon will be much more problematic as battery technology simply hasn't advanced enough to serve these much longer routes and hydrogen isn't possible yet either as there is no infrastructure in place.

If VIA had approached Ottawa stating that HFR money would not only go towards expanding and speeding up the service but also would kick-off VIA ability to decarbonise than I think they would have had a more receptive response.

 

[DirectionNorth]

Tier 4 is certainly better but under no stretch of the imagination is it good little alone ideal.

I think Ottawa would be far more receptive to expanding VIA if VIA had absolutely any policies on how it will decarbonise but it doesn't. Saying it's better than driving is a cop-out and as we quickly switch to zero emissions vehicles, taking VIA will be the polluting way to go.

Catenary is going to cost a fortune but it doesn't have to start there. VIA could begin testing the viability of battery or hydrogen trains and battery one's especially on shorter routes like Mon-Ott, Mon-QC, Tor-Lon/Wind. Tor-Ott-Mon will be much more problematic as battery technology simply hasn't advanced enough to serve these much longer routes and hydrogen isn't possible yet either as there is no infrastructure in place.

If VIA had approached Ottawa stating that HFR money would not only go towards expanding and speeding up the service but also would kick-off VIA ability to decarbonise than I think they would have had a more receptive response.

Except that VIA has to go with whatever CN and CP decide. We don't know what they are planning.

If HFR is electrified, VIA estimates that the cost goes up 50%. Then people complain that it's too expensive, and it's cancelled.

 

[kEiThZ]

Ah....we have achieved national equality. Getting HFR approved is every bit as tortuous as getting a pipeline approved. Everybody plays by the same rules.

I'm coming around to believing this is indeed what is happening.

What helped the penny land softly was realising that $491M is roughly the amount that the Montreal-Quebec segment was said to cost, and this was the segment that was said to not have a positive ROI. So the decision posed is.... does Cabinet want a Montreal-Toronto investment that the CIB supports, or does Cabinet want the Quebec-Toronto investment, which means chipping in some money over and above what the CIB will invest. No surprise that Cabinet saw fit to make up the difference - clearly the grass routes east of Montreal want this badly.

- Paul

It's an interesting take. But again, if that is true, why not a big official launch?

I can buy that they put in some allocation in the budget and would work to make the announcement later. But now you have Catherine McKenna and Omar Alghabra going on Twitter and insinuating that they are investing in HFR. I'm not sure if they are just trying to score political points with their $491M investment, or there will be an HFR announcement, in which case why front run it with random tweets from two ministers?

 

[Darwinkgo]

why front run it with random tweets from two ministers?

From the communications strategy point, it helps people be not surprised, and it reminds media that this is a live issue and might come up soon.

Plus, I'm sure with the bubble up in french media about HSR before the budget, and then all the Mayors writing for HFR, that this can also be taking as a 'calm down everyone'.

 

[kEiThZ]

if VIA had absolutely any policies on how it will decarbonise

That is not for VIA to decide.

You clearly don't seem to understand how government works. And how Crown Corporations work. VIA cannot decide to decarbonize on its own. It needs capital to do that. And this has to come from government.

In case you haven't noticed this government is much more talk then action. Take a known low hanging fruit: Canada Post. Logistics companies everywhere are going electric. There's already a positive ROI on doing this. The vehicles to electrify are already on the market and getting cheaper. They could commit to electrifying at least the last mile delivery fleet by 2030, just by replacing vehicles aging out of the fleet. Canada Post would need a few hundred million to do this. And it would take an order of magnitude in emissions more than VIA off the federal books. Not a peep from the Liberals.

Let's be clear. When they say they are serious about climate change, it's more about an excuse to implement policies that let them buy votes (like EV and home retrofit rebates) than any sincere pursuit of emissions cuts. The carbon tax rebate cheques are the epitome of this scheme.

 

[kEiThZ]

What helped the penny land softly was realising that $491M is roughly the amount that the Montreal-Quebec segment was said to cost, and this was the segment that was said to not have a positive ROI.

I was under the impression that this segment was a billion bucks. If it needs a half billion to work, the ROI must have been horrendous!!!