I agree Alberta is in dangerous territory, but I feel like it's not as dangerous as the situation Quebec has been in with Levesque and Parizeau. I think Danielle Smith and the redneck faction gets a lot of media attention, but I don't know if the actual support represents the media attention they get.
I could be wrong and misreading what I see, but my take is that Calgary has turned the corner enough that if someone like Danielle smith gets in, people won't vote UCP. Last election, a number of people held their nose and voted UCP based on jobs and the oil industry.
Smith has written/said the following:
“we have two years to direct our provincial government to start building the capacity to be able to stand on its own two feet if need be, by collecting all its own taxes, for instance”
[1]
“ If the rest of Canada rejects Alberta's proposal to govern the country the way it should be, the province would exercise its right under the Clarity Act to hold a referendum on separation. Either way, Alberta would get the federal system it wants.
“Forty years of federal abuse is enough -- it's time for Alberta to play hardball.”
[2]
“as we learned from Quebec's sovereignty drive, these movements can gel and advance extraordinarily quickly, given the right political climate”
[3]
“I'm committed to doing exactly what Quebec has done, we want all the powers that Quebec is currently exercising”
[4]
" I’m walking in parallel with the Alberta Prosperity Project, but I’m still trying to give Canada one more chance."
[5]
[5] Danielle Smith, June 17, 2022
[4] Danielle Smith, July 27, 2022
[3] Danielle Smith, July 10, 2004
[2] Danielle Smith, Sep 7, 2005
[1] Danielle Smith, Feb 5, 2021
I think it is entirely reasonable to believe that Smith will propose a really weird/not going to fly thing, that will then be rejected, and will then call a separation referendum. BEFORE A PROVINCIAL ELECTION.
Even though YouTube doesn't show the down votes, they still figure into their algorithm.
