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I've been thinking that while Ford will have the advantage of incumbency, he will not have that of a divided left. Let's not forget that most of the city voted against Rob Ford and I can't imagine that letting up after 4 years of cuts. The left will be just as against Ford as they were before but under a single candidate.

On the other side, will the kind of passion to elect Ford, the underdog still be there? Ford's main selling point was to get rid of the gravy. He can't use negativity against the existing Mayor because he will be it -- responsible for the past 4 years.

Now all we need is the challenger. I don't think John Tory will run. He had his best chance possible and decided not to take it. Vaughan? Too many soundbites against the inner suburbs. Carrol? Maybe. Do I want an inspirational figure with vision and a progressive platform to emerge? You bet.
 
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^^^ what makes you assume that there will only be one candidate on the left? It's the same issue as with national politics, too many ego's trying to forward their own careers rather than working together to do what's best for the city/country. Normally you would be right that Ford would no longer be able to run on the gravy train platform but rather would have to answer for his own record. The thing about the Fords though is they are very good at spinning the numbers or outright lying about them. It's a big part of any right wing campaign, to create confusion or doubt about what the truth is. Therefore challengers can be made to look as if they are the ones making up the numbers. Politics is a dirty game and the Ford's love to play dirty....
 
It will be near impossible to unseat a sitting mayor and even more impossible to unseat Ford from the left. Ford can only be unseated from the centre-right. That is where he is vulnerable, to a bleeding-heart centre-right candidate. Anyone from the left who is running will ensure a Ford victory in the next election.
 
Adam Vaughan? Probably about as many downtown residents despise him as do suburban residents! I don't like Rob Ford at all, but would have picked him over Adam Vaughan.

As someone else already said, all that Ford has to offer is cutting the gravy. Once the gravy's been slashed, all we'll be left with is an arrogant buffoon. Ford is likely his own worst enemy in that regard. I predict that he will be a one hit wonder.
 
Chuck said:
Adam Vaughan? Probably about as many downtown residents despise him as do suburban residents! I don't like Rob Ford at all, but would have picked him over Adam Vaughan.
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Vaughan pulled almost 75% of the vote in his Ward -- he's extremely popular downtown.
 
Name recognition goes a long, long way. Any time the media wants the left's response to some Ford proclamation, it's inevitably Vaughan they turn to. He seems to be the defacto opposition leader in their minds...and come election time they run the show.

But I agree...defeat will be much easier from a far right-er position. A 2-man Tory vs Ford race would (hopefully) be a massacre.

Of course this is all presupposing that incumbency will favor the fat man. There are so many variables, and so much time, and the city's seen so little of the real Rob Ford since his handlers took over. The way the 2012 budget is playing out, he'll be lucky if he's not tarred and feathered before then.
 
I agree it is way too early to tell. But if you are left-leaning and you think Adam Vaughan is your saviour I think you will be surprised how marginalized his support could be. Ford could (and with some considerable degree of probability) kill his own mayoral re-election chances. If he soften's up to the middle on some issues while retaining his core cost-cutting agenda he is unbeatable from the left. On the other hand a guy like Tory (who I don't think is interested in politics again) would mop the floor with Ford in a two-man race as has been mentioned above.
 
We have to remember that even before the 2010 election shuffled through as it did, it was generally believed that Adam Vaughan was too "downtowner" in outlook to be viable as mayor.

And remember, too, something that I've suggested: that Ford might well flame out by the time his term ends, and it may well be his appointed replacement that we'd be voting for or against in 2014--and no, I'm not thinking of Doug Ford, but more of someone like Michael Thompson...
 
Bruvyman said:
If Tory had run in this past election, I would be shocked had he NOT won. He would have taken it in a landslide.
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I doubt it. Either he wasn't interested, or he did some research before the cut-off date in September and found Ford's lead was too much to overcome.

MetroMan said:
I've been thinking that while Ford will have the advantage of incumbency, he will not have that of a divided left. Let's not forget that most of the city voted against Rob Ford and I can't imagine that letting up after 4 years of cuts. The left will be just as against Ford as they were before but under a single candidate.
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Ford could have one, two, more, or even no viable opponents in '14. Way too soon to tell.

Everyone forgets that most of the city voted against Ford because it's meaningless argument. And I say Ford would have smoked Smitherman had there been a run-off a week later.
 
Councilor Gord Perks was impressive today and yesterday. I think he would be an adequate contender, but he doesn't have the name recognition to challenge Ford. Then again, Ford didn't have much name recognition before he became Mayor unless you count the negative connotations that went along with him.

Vaughan and Tory are the only two I can think of now that have a chance. I wish Miller would come back, if he hadn't left we wouldn't be in this mess.
 
GenerationW said:
I doubt it. Either he wasn't interested, or he did some research before the cut-off date in September and found Ford's lead was too much to overcome.

Ford could have one, two, more, or even no viable opponents in '14. Way too soon to tell.

Everyone forgets that most of the city voted against Ford because it's meaningless argument. And I say Ford would have smoked Smitherman had there been a run-off a week later.
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No left winger was going to win anyway. 2014 will be a different story.
 
Marcanadian said:
Councilor Gord Perks was impressive today and yesterday. I think he would be an adequate contender, but he doesn't have the name recognition to challenge Ford. Then again, Ford didn't have much name recognition before he became Mayor unless you count the negative connotations that went along with him.

Vaughan and Tory are the only two I can think of now that have a chance. I wish Miller would come back, if he hadn't left we wouldn't be in this mess.
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Perks is way too left wing.
 
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