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Yeah, Perks isn't a good candidate, despite being one of the best orators on council. I think it's going to be Shelley Carroll. She voted with the mayor on the garbage issue this week. She's been careful to position herself as more centrist than the rest of the opposition councillors. She's going to be well-positioned to mount a strong challenge in 2014.
 
In 2014 my bet is that Ford will be able to effectively argue that he needs another term to fully mop up the gravy and get the subway plans running and with no compelling anti-Ford candidate, he'll win again like Miller did.

TrickyRicky said:
I agree it is way too early to tell. But if you are left-leaning and you think Adam Vaughan is your saviour I think you will be surprised how marginalized his support could be.
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Agreed. Vaughan is very front-and-centre on urban issues but he's also a pretty divisive figure, particularly in organized political circles. He's not aligned with any party: the Libs want him but he's resisted thus far, while him and the NDP have a strong mutual contempt for each other. He can overcome that when running for councillor, heck it's probably an attractive bonus; but when running for mayor, it's a problem because he'd need both parties' full on-the-ground strength for an effective mayoralty bid. The Libs would likely acquiesce(sp?) but the New Dems would be a tougher sell. I think it's doubtful Vaughan could even carry the old city of Toronto.

Also agreed that Perks is too leafy-leftie. Carroll is likely 2014's Pitfield (with an eye to a federal MP run when she likely loses) and then Matlow will run in 2018.
 
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Out of everyone that's been mentioned so far... I would have to guess that Ford might just win again.
 
GraphicMatt said:
Don't know if you read this earlier this week, MetroMan, but there's an interview with Shelley Carroll at Spacing that explains how close she came to running for mayor last year, with John Laschinger as her campaign manager. Would have made for a far more interesting race.

http://spacingtoronto.ca/2011/05/11/why-shelley-carroll-didnt-run-for-mayor/
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I'm a pretty big fan of hers and that was a pretty interesting article but her 'analysis' is just a big boatload of excuse-making and hindsight. If you're waiting around to be asked to the dance, you're not in contention to begin with.

Plus, some of her main assertions jsut turned out to be false - re: needing a non-NDPer to run (see how well that worked for Smitherman) and the successful progressive candidate needing to distance themselves from Miller (see how well that worked for Smitherman too.) The politicos need to figure out that you couldn't have more than one candidate doing the I'm-not-Miller dance; one of the (many) reasons for the outcome in October was that the only candidate that supported the past seven years' work might have been an ok councillor but was not mayor material. If you're going to choose the anti-Miller, that made Ford the obvious choice.

The other problem was the left and center picked terrible candidates. The Libs took the electorate for granted and went for immediate gain by picking a high-profile candidate who was all ambition and no mission; the New Dems picked a candidate with grooming for the future in mind and that 'investment' was completely lost when he flamed out in such a manner that he's probably unlelectable for a decade.
 
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I like Mike Thompson but having Ford in the Mayor's seat has brought the worst out of him. I've never known him to be that right wing. I'm disappointed in him and will tell him in person at the next opportunity.
 
Eug said:
Agreed. But could he win without the buffoonery, that Ford somehow has used to his advantage? ;)
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Yes. Esp. if you consider said "buffoonery" to be but a smokescreen for what'd otherwise be a "normal" right-of-centre mayoralty. Remove Ford, and suddenly it all becomes much less odious, and closer to what a 2003 John Tory mayoralty might have been--esp. if one allows for a little "post-Ford" normalizing correction...
 
Thompson isn't a good public speaker at all. I mean, Ford isn't either, but at least he has some natural charisma. Thompson will put people to sleep.

If we're looking at candidates from the right, I'd peg Denzil Minnan-Wong and Karen Sintz as more likely candidates than Thompson.
 
Miller making a comeback may not be totally out of the realm of possibility. He's going to look very good in 2014, and he has a very broad appeal across the city.

Perks is indeed a very good councillor, certainly one of the most articulate of the people on the Left. I don't know how he'll do in the suburbs though.

Another name to throw out as a good urban/suburban compromise...how about Janet Davis?
 
jeff316 said:
Agreed. Vaughan is very front-and-centre on urban issues but he's also a pretty divisive figure, particularly in organized political circles. He's not aligned with any party: the Libs want him but he's resisted thus far, while him and the NDP have a strong mutual contempt for each other. He can overcome that when running for councillor, heck it's probably an attractive bonus; but when running for mayor, it's a problem because he'd need both parties' full on-the-ground strength for an effective mayoralty bid. The Libs would likely acquiesce(sp?) but the New Dems would be a tougher sell. I think it's doubtful Vaughan could even carry the old city of Toronto.
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I disagree. I think Vaughan would have much more trouble with big-"L" Liberals then he would with NDPers. First of all, he's solidly aligned with the progressives on council. Second, as was made clear in the federal election, Liberal voters are not "left". Not to mention whatever bad blood there was over the 2006 race in Trinity-Spadina is no longer an issue (and I say this as someone who supported Vaughan over the NDP machine candidate in that race and always votes NDP provincially and federally) is gone. Keep in mind that Vaughan supported Cathy Crowe when she ran against Glen Murray and also supported the NDP-backed Kristyn Wong-Tam over Smitherman's puppet municipally. He also endorsed Jonah Schein and I wouldn't be surprised if he endorses Schein again if he gets the ONDP nomination in Davenport.

Another thing to keep in mind the worst polls for Helen Kennedy in 2006 were the best for Mike Yen in 2010 - which says to me these big-"L" Liberals who voted "strategically" for Vaughan to "stick it to the NDP" were dissatisfied.
 
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King of Kensington said:
I disagree. I think Vaughan would have much more trouble with big-"L" Liberals then he would with NDPers ... ... Another thing to keep in mind the worst polls for Helen Kennedy in 2006 were the best for Mike Yen in 2010 - which says to me these big-"L" Liberals who voted "strategically" for Vaughan to "stick it to the NDP" were dissatisfied.
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Yeah my comment wasn't about voters or voting patterns/trends - it was about whether and how Vaughan would be able to garner the support of the party machine. Apologies if that wasn't clear.
 
King of Kensington said:
Miller making a comeback may not be totally out of the realm of possibility. He's going to look very good in 2014, and he has a very broad appeal across the city.
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I'd love for Miller to come back but the damage has been done. He spent 7 years building the momentum that is bearing fruit now but this has been halted by Ford. Miller couldn't just start off where he left it. It would take quite some time to get the momentum back.

As for a theoretical Miller comeback, I won't say that he wouldn't do it but if he does make a return, it will be after his kids are raised and married off. He's still very young so me may get him back in a decade or so. I think it is more likely that he runs in provincial or federal elections instead.
 
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If the federal NDP still looks like a potential government-in-waiting in 2014, I could see Miller standing for office of MP if they need a 416-area candidate. I know he split from the NDP in his second term, but maybe there's still some loyalty there.

I too think he's done with municipal politics. He got a rough ride at the end there, particularly from the Toronto Star. I never understood why.
 
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