[sixrings]

Milton line would be the best option. However, that proposal has been made multiple times, ages ago, and still no progress. I can't help thinking the obstacles are more fundamental than just the funding.

A Line 2 extension to Square One would be a rather poor way to connect Square One to Toronto Downtown. Too many stops, and then have to transfer at St George. However, such an extension would be useful for a number of trips from Toronto Midtown to the Square One jobs. Say, someone lives near an N-S bus route not too far from Bloor, and can take a short bus trip and then the subway to a Square One office.

I don't have the demand estimates, maybe the numbers are still not there.

The fact that the proposal has happened multiple times including the idea of rerouting the freight trains makes me think this is substantially more difficult than we think. It’s easy to get the google map satellite out and think we have the solutions but I tend to think if it was that obvious and easy then it would have been done already. Which makes me nervous about the whole 15 minute a day frequencies thing. The fact that so few trains go out a day and so few trains come back makes me think if they got it to once a hour the people on the line would be happy. But the line has so much more potential than that but how much weight do people in Milton have and square one have?

 

[sixrings]

It sure looks like most of the ROW is wide enough to accommodate 4 tracks. Maybe there are some pinch points where property would need to be acquired, but I can't see it being all that bad. Probably worse is needing a solution for the remaining freight customers to access the CP tracks (flyovers?).

If it was that simple why hasn’t it happened already. The Milton line is one of the busiest on the system yet one of the worst serviced.

 

[crs1026]

^I wonder what today’s ridership projections say. The Milton line was crazy busy at peak back pre pandemic, but with WFH being probably permanent, that has eased. For 2WAD we need all day ridership. Intuitively, the numbers must be pretty good, but we should not assume the 2WAD business case is there just because of that pre pandemic peak demand.

I know of no technical showstoppers for the Milton route, but its cost is substantial…..much more per mile than the other routes where ML is the owner or primary user. It’s a project as large as Georgetown South…. which took from 2009 to 2015 to partially complete, with the last bits only getting done now, and still no weekend service, and no shovels in the ground on the CN portion.

If Milton had been included in the original GO RER plan, the total cost of the RER project would have jumped to a point where possibly no political party would have supported it. and if that route had been favoured over other routes in the funding queue, (given Georgetown South was in progress), there would have been cries that Halton/Peel was getting better treatment than Vaughan-Markham-Durham.

Putting it another way, if ML had added Milton to its priority list, and spread its cash flow and project expertise across all those projects, we would be seeing even slower progress on all routes.

I’m not sure that ML’s pace is very impressive as it is…. adding Milton to its project scope might have capsized the ship.

In all, leaving Milton til later was likely prudent and politically sensible. “Eat the elephant one steak at a time” applies.

- Paul

 

[crs1026]

PS:

The most intriguing part of leaving the Milton line until later is the opportunity for it to become a GO 2.0 design… no reason why it can’t be a crossover between vanilla GO and a more subway like entity with branches to MCC and perhaps even south Brampton via Streetsville. Alternatively, this route could offer partial or full service across North Toronto, connecting to the Ontario line (and perhaps VIA HFR, if it does go this way).

This could be the first route to implement true high platforms, single level EMU’s, and a lighter loading gauge.

- Paul

 

[sixrings]

If WFH is an excuse not to do anything then we should just stop the Scarborough subway extension right now, stop studying a magical Bolton go line and cancel that Yonge subway to Richmond hill

 

[Sunnyside]

The fact that the proposal has happened multiple times including the idea of rerouting the freight trains makes me think this is substantially more difficult than we think. It’s easy to get the google map satellite out and think we have the solutions but I tend to think if it was that obvious and easy then it would have been done already. Which makes me nervous about the whole 15 minute a day frequencies thing. The fact that so few trains go out a day and so few trains come back makes me think if they got it to once a hour the people on the line would be happy. But the line has so much more potential than that but how much weight do people in Milton have and square one have?

It’s no doubt difficult, but imo there are signs it is slowly inching forward. The regional TMPs (MX 2041, GGH 2051) include it as being an RER service. While those plans are basically crayoning at this point, it is at least on the governments radar and seems to be the next-in-line GO expansion. There are a few other things that make me think it’s “next” as well:

1. The missing link was deliberately pursued and then abandoned when determined unecessary for this specific purpose.
2. It is physically possible for both CP & GO to share the corridor with more trackage: if we could do it once in Georgetown, we can do it again- just not right now.
3. The $1B federal funding: Metrolinx/the province probably can’t afford to pursue Milton right now, especially alone. The federal dollars should represent a jumping off point once the current pipeline of projects, namely around GO, are done.

I would think, personally, that any expansion of Milton would be a multi-phased upgrade of the entire CP line through Scarborough-Milton- there is plenty of utility in continuing the work in the west to the east and gaining a whole new line along with boosting the second-most-used service in the system (besides LSW/LSE). Phasing might look like:
Phase 1: (2027-2035+)
A. Union-Kipling
B. Kipling-Cooksville
C. Cooksville-Meadowvale/Lisgar
D. “ “ to Milton
D-1. Square One Diversion
Phase 2: (2035-2050)
E. Midtown to & incl. Don Branch (approx Eglinton)
F. Richmond Hill upgrade, reroute thru Don branch
G. Eglinton-Stouffville connection
H. Malvern & Markham split; assumes CP yard plans are sorted out

The phase 2 grouping is subject to whenever “phase 1” is done, which only needs to be sometime before 2041/2051. This corridor is going to take a long time, but it will get done; the value is too great. The only alternative to bringing RT to Mississauga is Line 2 (not happening) or the fabled interregional LRT, which will miss the mark on Toronto-Sauga trips anyway. Even though such a line would be cost-effective, the cost-per-rider and/or cost-per-km of upgrading Milton is still far less than a poorly conceived subway extension, which we do anyway for more vapid reasons. Also, for thread relevance; this project is effectively an alternative to a Line 2 extension, which the TTC nor Mississauga want to pursue. Frankly I think the politicians will be fighting over this one vehemently to put their name on it.

Edit:re crs1026: this can easily be grouped into HFR schemes if federal involvement is a mainstay.

 

[sixrings]

It’s no doubt difficult, but imo there are signs it is slowly inching forward. The regional TMPs (MX 2041, GGH 2051) include it as being an RER service. While those plans are basically crayoning at this point, it is at least on the governments radar and seems to be the next-in-line GO expansion. There are a few other things that make me think it’s “next” as well:

1. The missing link was deliberately pursued and then abandoned when determined unecessary for this specific purpose.
2. It is physically possible for both CP & GO to share the corridor with more trackage: if we could do it once in Georgetown, we can do it again- just not right now.
3. The $1B federal funding: Metrolinx/the province probably can’t afford to pursue Milton right now, especially alone. The federal dollars should represent a jumping off point once the current pipeline of projects, namely around GO, are done.

I would think, personally, that any expansion of Milton would be a multi-phased upgrade of the entire CP line through Scarborough-Milton- there is plenty of utility in continuing the work in the west to the east and gaining a whole new line along with boosting the second-most-used service in the system (besides LSW/LSE). Phasing might look like:
Phase 1: (2027-2035+)
A. Union-Kipling
B. Kipling-Cooksville
C. Cooksville-Meadowvale/Lisgar
D. “ “ to Milton
D-1. Square One Diversion
Phase 2: (2035-2050)
E. Midtown to & incl. Don Branch (approx Eglinton)
F. Richmond Hill upgrade, reroute thru Don branch
G. Eglinton-Stouffville connection
H. Malvern & Markham split; assumes CP yard plans are sorted out

The phase 2 grouping is subject to whenever “phase 1” is done, which only needs to be sometime before 2041/2051. This corridor is going to take a long time, but it will get done; the value is too great. The only alternative to bringing RT to Mississauga is Line 2 (not happening) or the fabled interregional LRT, which will miss the mark on Toronto-Sauga trips anyway. Even though such a line would be cost-effective, the cost-per-rider and/or cost-per-km of upgrading Milton is still far less than a poorly conceived subway extension, which we do anyway for more vapid reasons. Also, for thread relevance; this project is effectively an alternative to a Line 2 extension, which the TTC nor Mississauga want to pursue. Frankly I think the politicians will be fighting over this one vehemently to put their name on it.

Edit:re crs1026: this can easily be grouped into HFR schemes if federal involvement is a mainstay.

Perhaps the problem is I am new to Mississauga and I am use to Toronto politicians. Toronto politicians put their names on everything promising the world. That north York guy has been promising a shepherd extension forever. Out in Mississauga there is very little news or perhaps a platform like cp24 for politicians to make infinite promises. The silence is deafening.

 

[crs1026]

If WFH is an excuse not to do anything then we should just stop the Scarborough subway extension right now, stop studying a magical Bolton go line and cancel that Yonge subway to Richmond hill

The pandemic was a gamechanger in transit planning, and it would be foolish not to face that fact.

The point remains that the GTA population is growing but the road network (already close to saturation) cannot. So now the challenge for transit is, where are we placing that population density and what are their new transportation needs. (Toronto Union’s peak loading may never again be 5PM on a weekday…. but when the ACC, Skydome, and BMO field and the Ontario Place stadium all empty out at once on a Saturday night….watch out !)

Moving people to the centre of Toronto and back on a 8-to-5 basis may never again be the raison d’etre for GO. But fear not, we need public transit more than ever. Just differently.

- Paul

 

[sixrings]

The pandemic was a gamechanger in transit planning, and it would be foolish not to face that fact.

The point remains that the GTA population is growing but the road network (already close to saturation) cannot. So now the challenge for transit is, where are we placing that population density and what are their new transportation needs. (Toronto Union’s peak loading may never again be 5PM on a weekday…. but when the ACC, Skydome, and BMO field and the Ontario Place stadium all empty out at once on a Saturday night….watch out !)

Moving people to the centre of Toronto and back on a 8-to-5 basis may never again be the raison d’etre for GO. But fear not, we need public transit more than ever. Just differently.

- Paul

Again. Then a whole bunch of lines should be cancelled. Also I have a hard time believing that one of the busiest lines prepandemic all of a sudden is the one line which doesn’t need upgrading. Milton and Mississauga residents should give YouTube courses on how to successfully maintain permanent wfh employment. Surely there are some commuters from Barrie or Ajax that would like some tips.

 

[crs1026]

Again. Then a whole bunch of lines should be cancelled. Also I have a hard time believing that one of the busiest lines prepandemic all of a sudden is the one line which doesn’t need upgrading. Milton and Mississauga residents should give YouTube courses on how to successfully maintain permanent wfh employment. Surely there are some commuters from Barrie or Ajax that would like some tips.

I can half agree with you - in that, any transit investment that relies on a pre-covid business case assuming high peak period commuting demand needs a revisit to see if the numbers will still be there.

As to the Milton line, the demographic of the residents in suburbs that feed that line are exactly those who are most able to work from home. Whereas, the transit pro's I talk to tell me that the transit demands of the logistics centers that run along Steeles/Hiway 7 from Highway 400 over to Highway 25 are now virtually insatiable, and their shift work patterns are far from 9 to 5 ish. Perhaps some of the money that would be required to upgrade the Milton line is better spent (in terms of revenue and riders per $M invested) on that ridership, and sooner.

GO RER is still defensible as a regional network and better choice than highway travel, - but it may plateau as a 15-20 minute headway service serving non-commuting travellers with non-employment needs. The vision of peak ridership demanding 5 - 7.5 minute headways, bringing hordes into downtownToronto employment locations, may not materialise as quickly as previously thought. For 2WAD, 5 - 7.5 minute headways may be decades away.

If Milton RER goes ahead, I'm certainly not going to complain. But I do think there has been a shift in the underlying tectonic plates, and we need to recalibrate and not assume what might in the past have seemed to be a no-brainer business case.

- Paul

 

[turbanplanner]

I can half agree with you - in that, any transit investment that relies on a pre-covid business case assuming high peak period commuting demand needs a revisit to see if the numbers will still be there.

As to the Milton line, the demographic of the residents in suburbs that feed that line are exactly those who are most able to work from home. Whereas, the transit pro's I talk to tell me that the transit demands of the logistics centers that run along Steeles/Hiway 7 from Highway 400 over to Highway 25 are now virtually insatiable, and their shift work patterns are far from 9 to 5 ish. Perhaps some of the money that would be required to upgrade the Milton line is better spent (in terms of revenue and riders per $M invested) on that ridership, and sooner.

GO RER is still defensible as a regional network and better choice than highway travel, - but it may plateau as a 15-20 minute headway service serving non-commuting travellers with non-employment needs. The vision of peak ridership demanding 5 - 7.5 minute headways, bringing hordes into downtownToronto employment locations, may not materialise as quickly as previously thought. For 2WAD, 5 - 7.5 minute headways may be decades away.

If Milton RER goes ahead, I'm certainly not going to complain. But I do think there has been a shift in the underlying tectonic plates, and we need to recalibrate and not assume what might in the past have seemed to be a no-brainer business case.

- Paul

I see tiktok videos of buses jam packed ~11pm on steeles because all the warehouse workers are ending their shift

 

[ARG1]

I see tiktok videos of buses jam packed ~11pm on steeles because all the warehouse workers are ending their shift

Ye, I see this idea that 9-5 is dead to be overblown. Now granted this does differ from industry to industry, factory workers are a different case study than Bay Street. Anecdotally speaking, where I work, the general vibe is that people are itching to end WFH as soon as possible. The problem for us is we don't have enough cubicles for all of the employees, so for logistic reasons we're stuck with the hybrid work environment. From what I hear from people I know from other companies, this isn't an uncommon situation.

 

[Undead]

Anecdotally speaking, where I work, the general vibe is that people are itching to end WFH as soon as possible.

Outside of a few silly HR types, the exact opposite in my experience. Everyone uses whatever excuse they can to get more wfh. And we're facing the same issue with space.

 

[ARG1]

Outside of a few silly HR types, the exact opposite in my experience. Everyone uses whatever excuse they can to get more wfh. And we're facing the same issue with space.

Interesting. I guess it really just depends on the workplace and the industry.

 

[nfitz]

Interesting. I guess it really just depends on the workplace and the industry.

And who is doing the saying. We've almost all worked from home. If we want to be honest with ourselves, we all know (at least those with lives and families, and especially young kids), that we don't get the same amount of work done in 8 hours at home, compared to 8 hours at work, and have a lot more interruptions. Sure, if you've got a massive deadline, and you aren't given what you need in the office to close the door and work in peace, you might get more work done at home; but that's the exception.

Ultimately, weekday transit will exceed pre-Covid levels. There may be a trend of ridings moving some from peak to off-peak, but this trend was well underway pre-Covid.

Vacancies are increasing downtown, but this space will ultimately be filled with other businesses.

Could be another 2-3 years - though I expect by the time the Ontario Line, and Line 1/2 subway extensions come on line, we'll be there. If not higher than pre-Covid! Assuming the next pandemic doesn't occur before then.