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How many non-incumbent winners will there be on council?

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
A few predictions for tonight:

  • Peruzza beats Mammo, putting an end to a dark chapter in Toronto's history
  • Pasternak defeats Augimeri, ending her 33 (!) year time in office
  • Matlow and Kellway edge out Tory endorsees Mihevc and Brad Bradford
  • Michael Thompson wins with the largest vote plurality of all candidates
  • Clashing progressive candidates split the vote and let Frances Nunziata and Grimes get re-elected
  • Doug Ford sends in an army of PC operatives and Mikey Ford defeats Crisanti handedly
 
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Wong-Tam vs. Troisi vs. Smitherman will be interesting. The population of the ward is highly transient, with a huge swath of new residents and first time voters. Because of boundary shifts and the death of McConnell I doubt there is a name recognition advantage to any of them. I would think it's a ward where a candidates on the ground organization matters a lot, yet I have received precisely zero campaign materials or door knocks from any candidate. This was the same in the provincial election too. The only material ever delivered to me was a door hanger from the Liberal candidate, and I found it was on election day after I had already voted.
 
Jonny5 said:
Wong-Tam vs. Troisi vs. Smitherman will be interesting. The population of the ward is highly transient, with a huge swath of new residents and first time voters. Because of boundary shifts and the death of McConnell I doubt there is a name recognition advantage to any of them. I would think it's a ward where a candidates on the ground organization matters a lot, yet I have received precisely zero campaign materials or door knocks from any candidate. This was the same in the provincial election too. The only material ever delivered to me was a door hanger from the Liberal candidate, and I found it was on election day after I had already voted.
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I've seen Ryan Lester's team canvassing the most. There was a march for Khuram Aftab on Saturday. And I saw Smitherman campaigning on the streets a few weeks ago. But other than that, despite the large number of candidates, all I've got are a few campaign flyers at my door.
 
In no way the Wong-Tam vs. Troisi vs. Smitherman will be a tight race. Troisi isn't even in the race. She promised to the Cabbagetowners she will drive poor folks out so some of them will vote for her but that doesn't amount to a lot of people. I say >55 percent Wong-Tam, ~25 percent Smitherman and <20 percent for the rest of the candidates.
 
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Predictions:

MAYOR - John Tory
WARD 1 - Michael Ford
WARD 2 - John Campbell
WARD 3 - Mark Grimes
WARD 4 - Gord Perks
WARD 5 - Frances Nunziata
WARD 6 - James Pasternak
WARD 7 - Anthony Perruzza
WARD 8 - Christin Carmichael Greb
WARD 9 - Ana Baliao
WARD 10 - Joe Cressy
WARD 11 - Mike Layton
WARD 12 - Joe Mihevc
WARD 13 - Kristyn Wong-Tam
WARD 14 - Mary Fragedakis
WARD 15 - Jon Brunside
WARD 16 - Denzil Minnan-Wong
WARD 17 - Ken Lister
WARD 18 - John Fillion
WARD 19 - Matthew Kellway
WARD 20 - Michelle Holland-Beradinetti
WARD 21 - Michael Thompson
WARD 22 - Norm Kelly
WARD 23 - Cynthia Lai
WARD 24 - Paul Ainslie
WARD 25 - Jennifer McKelvie
 
StevieD said:
Predictions:
WARD 8 - Christin Carmichael Greb
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I think Colle has the advantage in Eglinton Lawrence. I've heard that some of the local Liberals are working for Jennifer Arp, but I don't think she will peel enough votes away from Colle who has huge name recognition in the area.
 
Avenue said:
In no way the Wong-Tam vs. Troisi vs. Smitherman will be a tight race. Troisi isn't even in the race. She promised to the Cabbagetowners she will drive poor folks out so some of them will vote for her but that doesn't amount to a lot of people. I say >55 percent Wong-Tam, ~25 percent Smitherman and <20 percent for the rest of the candidates.
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Lucy! is certainly NOT popular in St Lawrence - I have seen several of her signs with an added "Lying" added before the Lucy! She did promise not to run when she was appointed to succeed Pam McConnell. I think she will be toast!
 
I find it very frustrating there was no poll done in my ward.

I want to vote strategically, but I have no idea who is closer to slaying Grimes. I think the safe bet is Gough for councillor. Sorry Amber.
 
mjl08 said:
A few predictions for tonight:

  • Peruzza beats Mammo, putting an end to a dark chapter in Toronto's history
  • Pasternak defeats Augimeri, ending her 33 (!) year time in office
  • Matlow and Kellway edge out Tory endorsees Mihevc and Brad Bradford
  • Michael Thompson wins with the largest vote plurality of all candidates
  • Clashing progressive candidates split the vote and let Frances Nunziata and Grimes get re-elected
  • Doug Ford sends in an army of PC operatives and Mikey Ford defeats Crisanti handedly
Click to expand...

Those are good predictions. I second them all.

I'll add that Carmichael-Greb who got elected by a thread in the low teens will be defeated by Mike Colle.

Wong Tam beats Smitherman and Troisi easily.

Fletcher edges Fragedakis.

The Campbell vs Holyday race is a mystery to me but I think the Holyday name will take the worse progressive back to City Hall.

What I'm holding out for is if Denzil will finally be gone. Caplan is a strong campaigner and Minnan-Wong did surprisingly poorly in his ward when it was the size of a provincial riding.

Cressy vs Vuong is a very interesting race. Kevin got a head start, having campaigned and canvassed nonstop since May, Cressy was running out of the ward and only a small sliver of his would-be ward 24 is in the current ward 10. He began campaigning here only weeks ago. Cressy and Mike Layton argued over who would take University-Rosedale. Cressy did not want to run in the condo rich part of his old ward. He's not liked at all in CityPlace. He does better in neighbourhoods with houses where he spent most of his time in the last 4 years. Having seen unpublished polls, Vuong is in second place way ahead of Sabrina Zuniga in third. Cressy has a good lead. However — and this is where it gets really interesting — the number of undecideds in ward 10 is humongous. That does not bode well for the incumbent. If that many people are undecided days before the election, they're looking for change. If Kevin crystallizes as that change, he will actually pull this off and win.
 
bobbob911 said:
Rob Ford *was* a surprisingly good councilor (albeit with political views I found abhorrent). That skill set did not translate to being a good mayor.
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Rob was only a 'good councilor' if you think that the role of a councilor is to return resident phone calls and get pot-holes filled - rather than encouraging use of 311, which Rob did not support - while constantly complaining about waste (elsewhere) and with absolutely NO concept of 'city building". This mind-set MAY be acceptable for a Councilor (though I do not think so), it is certainly not for a Mayor.
 
Grimes will not win because of vote splitting - his corrupt ass will beat the next two combined.

Name recognition + Tory and Di Ciano endorsements will be too strong.
 
MetroMan said:
Third and Forth places in ward 10 are way further down from the two front runners. Most candidates including semi high profile April Engelberg and Al Carbone don’t even register above 1%. They’re all bunched up under “Another Candidate” which is a low single digits number.

Undecided is still unusually high for an election that’s tomorrow! That to me spells trouble for the incumbent. Those undecided *will* decide who’s city councillor for ward 10.[/QUOTE

Undecided or just don't care and therefore will not vote?
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MetroMan said:
Cressy vs Vuong is a very interesting race. Kevin got a head start, having campaigned and canvassed nonstop since May, Cressy was running out of the ward and only a small sliver of his would-be ward 24 is in the current ward 10. He began campaigning here only weeks ago. Cressy and Mike Layton argued over who would take University-Rosedale. Cressy did not want to run in the condo rich part of his old ward. He's not liked at all in CityPlace. He does better in neighbourhoods with houses where he spent most of his time in the last 4 years. Having seen unpublished polls, Vuong is in second place way ahead of Sabrina Zuniga in third. Cressy has a good lead. However — and this is where it gets really interesting — the number of undecideds in ward 10 is humongous. That does not bode well for the incumbent. If that many people are undecided days before the election, they're looking for change. If Kevin crystallizes as that change, he will actually pull this off and win.
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What about the St. Lawrence part of Spadina Fort York? I've seen Joe signs there. You only mentioned west of Yonge.
 
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