[King of Kensington]

I don't know. The only time that riding ever went Conservative recently was with Star candidates (Fantino, Palladini). They are running a nobody vs. Steven Del Duca.

That being said if the PC's trounce the Liberals I could see the candidate (Michael Tibollo) riding the wave to victory.

Ford's straight talking "businessman-populism" probably has more appeal than a generic PC (think of Trump doing much better in Staten Island than in Greenwich, Connecticut). He also dominated the Italian vote in the municipal election and 905 Italians are less Liberal than in the 416.

 

[King of Kensington]

Like the Democratic Party in 2016, I think the Ontario Liberals are in danger of being the party of the professional urban class. Similar to Clinton winning the Upper East Side, Orange County and NW Virgina, I can see a scenario where the Ontario Liberals get relegated to as few as 15-20 seats. These seats will be overwhelmingly professional, urbane, with many 30 and 40 somethings in fields like tech and healthcare. Think downtown Toronto, some ridings in Peel, Halton, KW and some ridings Ottawa. These are communities that are affluent with solid community structures and social and economic stability.

However, if you can't afford a home, if your kids are swimming in student debt, you are working check-to-check, and life seems to be getting harder, Ford becomes a sort of savior. He's easy to understand for the average voter, and he can point to a million scapegoats. And unlike Trump, he appeals particularly to newcomers.

Likewise, I could see some historically 'blue' and upper crust pockets, such as North Toronto, resisting Ford Nation. Heck, in stuffy pockets of Toronto like Don Valley West and Eglinton-Bathurst, Doug Ford came third behind both John Tory and Olivia Chow.

We're entering a totally new landscape. Ford Nation is politically agnostic; they cheer Ford like he's their favourite hockey player, not a politician.

I think the PCs can forget about DVW and Eglinton-Lawrence with Ford leading them.

St. Paul's is the epicenter of professional class liberalism and is probably the safest riding for the Liberals in Ontario (along with Ottawa-Vanier). Christine Elliott never would have won that seat even if she was the leader. It'll be interesting to see how much the PC vote tanks there.

 

[narduch]

I think the PCs can forget about DVW and Eglinton-Lawrence with Ford leading them.

St. Paul's is the epicenter of professional class liberalism and is probably the safest riding for the Liberals in Ontario (along with Ottawa-Vanier). Christine Elliott never would have won that seat even if she was the leader. It'll be interesting to see how much the PC vote tanks there.

Apparently Elliott is still running for a seat . I wonder where though.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Apparently Elliott is still running for a seat . I wonder where though.

I guess she needs a job now, having resigned from her Wynne patronage job.

 

[animatronic]

Ford's straight talking "businessman-populism" probably has more appeal than a generic PC (think of Trump doing much better in Staten Island than in Greenwich, Connecticut). He also dominated the Italian vote in the municipal election and 905 Italians are less Liberal than in the 416.

That’s why the Liberal/NDP attack dogs need to find a scandal with his business past and run with it. Sure they’ve got researchers down in NJ and Chicago right now.

 

[SunriseChampion]

I guess she needs a job now, having resigned from her Wynne patronage job.

What?
Please explain your wording.

From what I know, Elliott took a job that was available to anyone with the prerequisite qualifications and was solicited for publicly. Am I wrong?

 

[kEiThZ]

My bet is for a minority. Either Liberal or PC. Edging towards a PC minority. The PCs would have to flip a massive amount of GTA suburban seats to win a majority. And despite what they say I can't see the PCs taking seats in NorOnt, while I see the Liberals gaining there. Depending on how your define suburban, the PCs would have to flip like ~80% of the Liberals suburban seats to get a majority. That wave is possible. I do think it's a long shot though. Hence, my prediction for a minority.

 

[kEiThZ]

That’s why the Liberal/NDP attack dogs need to find a scandal with his business past and run with it. Sure they’ve got researchers down in NJ and Chicago right now.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Personal attacks are not going to work. They simply make the attacker look shrill and desperate. Focus on his record and focus on what those swing communities will need to prosper/what they want. Especially where the deltas are against what the PCs are promising.

It's really unfortunate the Liberals footdragged so much on RER. Personally, I think they should have prioritized RER over every suburban LRT, because it's a real vote-getter. Dunno how well they can sell it now. But they should absolutely try.

 

[Jasmine18]

If there is a high turnout election, I think the favour will be for Ford as it will be a lot of people who don't really care about Ontario politics and be drawn in the by the populism.

Ford is already promising grand promises like Trump 'no tax under 30k' or something.

So I think he will run a very simple campaign on very big easy to sell promises and crooked liberals.


He can lose but I as a person in the burbs, if you are in Toronto and a progressive, I be sweating.

 

[animatronic]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Personal attacks are not going to work. They simply make the attacker look shrill and desperate. Focus on his record and focus on what those swing communities will need to prosper/what they want. Especially where the deltas are against what the PCs are promising.

It's really unfortunate the Liberals footdragged so much on RER. Personally, I think they should have prioritized RER over every suburban LRT, because it's a real vote-getter. Dunno how well they can sell it now. But they should absolutely try.

Not a personal attack per se - an attack on his false narrative as a successful businessman devoted to public service. The more people who understand he’s a shifty salesman who’s just in it for himself the better the Lib/NDP chances.

 

[kEiThZ]

Not a personal attack per se - an attack on his false narrative as a successful businessman devoted to public service. The more people who understand he’s a shifty salesman who’s just in it for himself the better the Lib/NDP chances.

How well did that work out in the US for the Democrats?

When you make it about the candidates past, you make it about them. And when you do that, you will end up giving them more airtime. All while, avoiding coverage for your platform.

Clinton had a great platform. How many people remember her actual campaign promises?

I've been in the US since late 2016 pursuing a post-grad. I got an up front look at their election. I could see how the narratives developed and played out. And so far, all I have to say, is that virtually every left-leaning individual I see online, is making the exact same arguments I saw Democrats make.

 

[BurlOak]

That’s why the Liberal/NDP attack dogs need to find a scandal with his business past and run with it. Sure they’ve got researchers down in NJ and Chicago right now.

I recall going to a provincial Liberal rally in the mid 1980's - they provided free alcohol and hors 'oeuvres. I went to a Reform rally in the 1990's and they charged for coffee and donuts.
The key is to bribe the media so they provide more favourable coverage.

 

[ADRM]

Apparently Elliott is still running for a seat . I wonder where though.

Her campaign floated the idea of her running in St. Paul's, which was of course recently vacated by Eric Hoskins.

 

[PinkLucy]

I agree with Keith. I am also calling a minority. Minority government isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

 

[King of Kensington]

Her campaign floated the idea of her running in St. Paul's, which was of course recently vacated by Eric Hoskins.

Well if she wants to be a "loyal player" but not have to serve under Ford, I guess a St. Paul's run isn't a bad idea.

BTW St. Paul's is Caroline Mulroney's "home" riding but she was wise enough not to run anywhere near there.