[Northern Light]

Although unintended to being so, minority coalitions are as close as you'll get to Proportional Representation in the First Past the Post System. With many of the pluses and minuses too.

Prop Rep trends towards gridlock. A bit like the Sergeant Major having to put every command to a plebiscite. There's a reason Italy, for instance, has an election every other pizza being cooked.

While the statement about Italy is essentially correct, I don't think you would find it representative of PR systems the world over.

There are 23 democracies in nations of more than 2,000,000 that use PR and the majority do not suffer from gridlock or profound instability.

The problems w/Italy's particular system are myriad and could easily merit their own thread.

 

[Admiral Beez]

---

PC's could easily govern with NDP support. NDP wont support Liberals again I don't think as it didn't work out well for NDP last time.

I’d support it. Neither DoFo or Horvath support the perceived elites, and both claim to speak for the “working man”, albeit only Horvath has the unionists.

 

[Admiral Beez]

While the statement about Italy is essentially correct, I don't think you would find it representative of PR systems the world over.

There are 23 democracies in nations of more than 2,000,000 that use PR and the majority do not suffer from gridlock or profound instability.

The problems w/Italy's particular system are myriad and could easily merit their own thread.

I’d prefer ranked ballots, so that every MP is elected by at least 50% of the voters in any riding. Yes, that means that up to 49.9% of voters in any riding may not feel represented, but it’s still an improvement, and keeps us away from splintering the legislature into a half dozen cells.

 

[christiesplits]

Yikes, Liberals are in trouble.

https://twitter.com/christoaivalis/status/973194043915194368
@christoaivalis

First poll out since the Doug Ford win shows the following results
1. the OPCs with 44%, and 84 seats
2. the ONDP with 27% and 29 seats
3. the the OLP with 23% and 11 seats

 

[PinkLucy]

What was the poll before Doug? I had read that the PCs were polling higher before he was elected
ETA: Yes, the article that's linked with this shows that people are LESS likely to vote PC now that Doug is leader. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2835/doug-ford-leadership-march-2018 (It's a Forum poll though, so I never count on those)

Once people have had a chance to see/hear Doug in action over the next little while, it will be interesting to see how this changes.

 

[narduch]

Yikes, Liberals are in trouble.

https://twitter.com/christoaivalis/status/973194043915194368
@christoaivalis

First poll out since the Doug Ford win shows the following results
1. the OPCs with 44%, and 84 seats
2. the ONDP with 27% and 29 seats
3. the the OLP with 23% and 11 seats

Ford doesn't even really need to come up with policy. Policy is what gets you in trouble (see Tory and Hudak).

Just keep hammering Wynne.

I actually blame the Liberals for allowing this to happen. There has been nearly zero accountability for their scandals. And has their really been any big infrastructure (transit) project started since they won the last election?

 

[Northern Light]

I’d prefer ranked ballots, so that every MP is elected by at least 50% of the voters in any riding. Yes, that means that up to 49.9% of voters in any riding may not feel represented, but it’s still an improvement, and keeps us away from splintering the legislature into a half dozen cells.

For me, I tend to work backwards.

Look at those countries whose quality of life I admire most, and who have objectively comparable or better outcomes for society (poverty, income inequality, health, lifespan, crime etc.) then ask, what are they doing different?

A cursory examination of countries using one set of statistics (UN Human Development index) and one anecdotal (the happiness survey) comes up w/most similar names.

Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland (all PR systems); while a larger list features New Zealand as well.

HK and Singapore show up in these lists, though both have some democratic deficiencies.

Only 2 countries that are fully democratic and don't have PR are top 10. Canada and Australia.

On balance, that leans me towards some variant of unicameral PR, w/provisos for minimizing extremism and ensuring some stability. (ie. 5% threshold to get PR seats)

I recognize some of things I and others might value aren't direct consequences of the electoral system, at least in all cases.

Though, I think there is a tangible link between a society that values diverse opinions in its legislature and power-sharing and social-economic framework that likewise emphasizes some sharing
of the spoils of a society's wealth and minimum standard of living for all.

As opposed to an electoral system framed as winner-takes-all; which would seem associated with a similar socioeconomic mindset.

 

[kEiThZ]

Ford doesn't even really need to come up with policy. Policy is what gets you in trouble (see Tory and Hudak).

Just keep hammering Wynne.

I actually blame the Liberals for allowing this to happen. There has been nearly zero accountability for their scandals. And has their really been any big infrastructure (transit) project started since they won the last election?

My biggest criticism of the Liberals is that they pursued targeted social policies (pharmacare and fully funded university for some) instead of broad initiatives that help society as whole. If you benefit from those policies, you will support them. But if you don't, the spending will appear wasteful to you. And right now, this is exactly what the average middle class voter, who doesn't benefit from a lot of the targeted spending is thinking.

If they spent most of that deficit on infrastructure instead of social programs, they'd be one of the most popular governments in history. Infrastructure benefits everybody and gives you something tangible to point to, when asked what you've done.

 

[PinkLucy]

As I said, I'm always cautious with Forum polls!

 

[Northern Light]

As I said, I'm always cautious with Forum polls!

Poll may be right or wrong as of today.............but.....

There is massive margin of error on a riding level for a poll of this size.

They show a sample size of just over 8 per riding.

According to Forum's own Sampling Error page this would be a margin of error at the riding level of +/- 34%

At a regional level, for the 416 = +/- 7%

Underlying Poll Data Here: http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/ff056a23-8212-4b53-9163-8110bcca3cddDoug Ford Leadership.pdf

Sample Size Error Calculator here: http://www.forumresearch.com/tools-sample-estimator.asp

 

[narduch]

My biggest criticism of the Liberals is that they pursued targeted social policies (pharmacare and fully funded university for some) instead of broad initiatives that help society as whole. If you benefit from those policies, you will support them. But if you don't, the spending will appear wasteful to you. And right now, this is exactly what the average middle class voter, who doesn't benefit from a lot of the targeted spending is thinking.

If they spent most of that deficit on infrastructure instead of social programs, they'd be one of the most popular governments in history. Infrastructure benefits everybody and gives you something tangible to point to, when asked what you've done.

I know this first hand. We applied for the 'free' IVF and were told there is currently a 5-year waiting list at our clinic. Like Marisa Tomeii said, my wife's biological clock is ticking...

The Liberals are good at announcing spending 'programs' but a lot of times people aren't eligible. But they sure have nice pressers to announce these programs.

I think their own internal polling showed that transit infrastructure won't actually win votes, spending on social programs has a better chance of moving the needle. Especially considering how desperate they are to hold power.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I know this first hand. We applied for the 'free' IVF and were told there is currently a 5-year waiting list at our clinic. Like Marisa Tomeii said, my wife's biological clock is ticking..

This reminded me of a humorous chat I had with my brother some years ago. He’d spent $25K on IVF and his toddler was having a melt down, and I asked him if that was worth the $25k, saying he could have bought a car or had some other experiences. All in jest of course.

My wife and I said at the onset, we’ll try for kids the natural way, but if they don’t happen we’ll try instead for sunny vacations, money in the bank and free time. First shot, um, and we have twins, almost triplets. Now, 16 years later we can again try for sunny vacations, free time, etc, lol.

 

[kEiThZ]

I think their own internal polling showed that transit infrastructure won't actually win votes, spending on social programs has a better chance of moving the needle. Especially considering how desperate they are to hold power.

I actually think polling doesn't work great here. If you ask people, "Would you want a tax cut or a subway?" They'll say tax cut. But they are just likely to appreciate the subway when it's built and working. Polls aren't great for capturing how much people will approve of infrastructure that's actually delivered.

 

[narduch]

I actually think polling doesn't work great here. If you ask people, "Would you want a tax cut or a subway?" They'll say tax cut. But they are just likely to appreciate the subway when it's built and working. Polls aren't great for capturing how much people will approve of infrastructure that's actually delivered.

Maybe it wasn't polling per se. But it is a total change in strategy.

Just a year ago they were bragging about a balanced budget. Which they said would remain balanced for 3 additional years. Now a year later they are purposefully going to run a deficit in order to win an election, with no real plan to make up the difference.

 

[narduch]

This reminded me of a humorous chat I had with my brother some years ago. He’d spent $25K on IVF and his toddler was having a melt down, and I asked him if that was worth the $25k, saying he could have bought a car or had some other experiences. All in jest of course.

My wife and I said at the onset, we’ll try for kids the natural way, but if they don’t happen we’ll try instead for sunny vacations, money in the bank and free time. First shot, um, and we have twins, almost triplets. Now, 16 years later we can again try for sunny vacations, free time, etc, lol.

Thankfully we had our miracle baby that was born naturally. But we want to try to give him a sibling.

Which brings up another point, we have already had 2 items not covered under the new Pharmacare (a Hep A vaccine and an eczema cream). Sure they were both minor but its another case of being sold something that isn't totally true.