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The_Cat said:
^ I think this time is a little different. Calgary (and Edmonton) have more diverse populations, leaning more towards NDP.
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The NDP won a bunch of seats in Calgary in 2015 but hung onto just three of them in 2019--and those only because they had high-profile MLAs like Joe Ceci and Kathleen Ganley.

And there were six or so ridings in Calgary in this election that the NDP absolutely had to win in order to form government, in addition to the ones they picked up. Nevertheless they lost them. Even several of the seats they did win were won only by the skin of their teeth (seven votes in Acadia???).
 
The divide between Urban and Rural has become to be more pronounced in Alberta just as it has in the U.S. As some of Alberta's minor cities grow to be more major population-wise I would expect that trend to carry over to centres like Red Deer, Grande Prairie, Cold Lake, LLoydminster, and Fort McMurray (I think it was a mistake that NDP didn't put more effort into these locations). Lethbridge is already starting to shift. Ruralites, in general, always call for less government and therefore lower taxes (not seeing direct benefits to their particular situations) and are therefore easier targets for Conservatives.
 
Another thing will be the growth in Calgary and Edmonton. I calculated (based on average riding population) that Calgary has the equivalent of two more seats. With the exception of Calgary South East, the NDP ridings have grown faster.
 
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TravellingChris said:
Doesn't anyone remember 1993? The same concerns were raised when Ralph Klein won the election but every Edmonton seat (and most surrounding seats) went Liberal. Local residents and politicians expressed the same fears that Edmonton would be "shut out" of decision-making. If I recall correctly Klein decided that he would "buddy up" certain of his MLAs from other areas with Edmonton ridings to give them a voice. Interestingly, The PCs won back some Edmonton and area seats in 1997 and won an even greater number in 2001.
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I suppose that could happen, however two importannt things may be different than in 1993. First and foremost, I don't think Smith is another Klein. Second, unfortunately for the opposition that came so close, their leader passed away.
 
TravellingChris said:
Good points here. As to your last point, the NDP campaign reminded me a bit of the failed Clinton/Kaine campaign in 2016. Hillary spent way too much time pointing out how flawed her opponent was and how unsuitable to be president--to the extent that voters were telling pollsters they didn't think Hillary even had an economic plan because she spent all her time talking about her opponent's character. This seems to be the same mistake the NDP made, not focusing enough on bread-and-butter issues instead of on the flaws in the UCP and Danielle Smith's leadership.

It's also interesting that only very slight changes in vote totals in a few places (several Calgary ridings for the NDP, Michigan and Wisconsin for Hillary), would have resulted in a completely different outcome for the entire election.
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I think one political commentator said if the outcome had been 2,500 more votes or so for the NDP in several close Calgary ridings, they not the UCP, would have won. I was closer than it seemed.

I agree with your other point, you can only get so far by pointing out your opponents flaws. Almost every party that loses focuses too much on that.
 
David A said:
I think one political commentator said if the outcome had been 2,500 more votes or so for the NDP in several close Calgary ridings, they not the UCP, would have won. I was closer than it seemed.

I agree with your other point, you can only get so far by pointing out your opponents flaws. Almost every party that loses focuses too much on that.
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the shame of that here is that almost across the board the ndp had stronger policies, even fiscally. their economic platform was well developed and would have provided a much stronger and more flexible foundation for the province going forward.

some will say they shouldn’t have released as much detail as they did (particularly the proposed corporate tax rate increase) but i disagree. the problem as i see it (with the wonderful gift of 20/20 hindsight) isn’t that it gave the ucp a target, it’s that once they released it they didn’t aggressively sell it.

it was - and is - eminently saleable and by not doing so it was like ceding ground to the ucp that they hadn’t earned and didn’t deserve, ground that they wouldn’t have won the election without.
 
kcantor said:
the shame of that here is that almost across the board the ndp had stronger policies, even fiscally. their economic platform was well developed and would have provided a much stronger and more flexible foundation for the province going forward.

some will say they shouldn’t have released as much detail as they did (particularly the proposed corporate tax rate increase) but i disagree. the problem as i see it (with the wonderful gift of 20/20 hindsight) isn’t that it gave the ucp a target, it’s that once they released it they didn’t aggressively sell it.

it was - and is - eminently saleable and by not doing so it was like ceding ground to the ucp that they hadn’t earned and didn’t deserve, ground that they wouldn’t have won the election without.
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I agree, but the Rural riding would still not have voted for the NDP. The NDP may have swept Calgary and Lethbridge but the UCP has such a strong hold in the rural ridings and the narrative that Singh and PJT were pulling the strings was not refuted or for that mater turned around that That PP was driving Alberta Policy. The TBA did do a bit of damage though.
 
I think some UCP voters don’t understand the numbers. Something like taxes arouse emotions of voters.
 
kcantor said:
the shame of that here is that almost across the board the ndp had stronger policies, even fiscally. their economic platform was well developed and would have provided a much stronger and more flexible foundation for the province going forward.

some will say they shouldn’t have released as much detail as they did (particularly the proposed corporate tax rate increase) but i disagree. the problem as i see it (with the wonderful gift of 20/20 hindsight) isn’t that it gave the ucp a target, it’s that once they released it they didn’t aggressively sell it.

it was - and is - eminently saleable and by not doing so it was like ceding ground to the ucp that they hadn’t earned and didn’t deserve, ground that they wouldn’t have won the election without.
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Exactly, it seems obvious, but if you don't strongly defend your policy particularly when it is attacked, voters will conclude your opponents criticisms of it are valid, whether they are or not.
 
I’m thinking Notley’s campaigning in Calgary probably won 10 additional NDP seats.
 
TravellingChris said:
The NDP won a bunch of seats in Calgary in 2015 but hung onto just three of them in 2019--and those only because they had high-profile MLAs like Joe Ceci and Kathleen Ganley.

And there were six or so ridings in Calgary in this election that the NDP absolutely had to win in order to form government, in addition to the ones they picked up. Nevertheless they lost them. Even several of the seats they did win were won only by the skin of their teeth (seven votes in Acadia???).
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The NDP performed pretty strongly in Calgary this election, winning almost as many seats this year as they did in 2015, but this time against a united right. What cost them the election was their complete inability to win the Edmonton Donut ridings (love that name btw, gonna call our suburbs The Donut from now on)
 
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