[occidentalcapital]

So Alberta grew by 184,000 people. If we think it’s reasonable to have received about 1/3 of this, that would be about 60,000. Knack quotes 40,000.. I assume that is just for Edmonton. Do we think the metro region grew by something closer to 60,000? Is there anywhere we can confirm this quickly?

Statscan will release CMA estimates, which should answer that question. If rental market is anything, then yes it seems like we have seen a big increase. Very tight supply. We could easily be at 1.6million right now, with the issues with undercount of non permanent residents, it's hard to say but maybe even 1.7mil?

 

[ChazYEG]

Not too sure! StatsCan might have estimates by CMA but the City probably has its own statistics crew in charge of this as well.

All I know is if this rate continues, and increases (which I’m honestly a bit confident of, just based on migration trends, I’m assuming we’ll have a base of 20-25k international migrants, 5-10k interprovincial migrants, 2-5k intraprovincial migrants and 5-10k natural increase ) Edmonton will add almost 200,000 people in the span of four years.

That’s absolutely bananas.

And before anyone says I’m just pulling numbers out of thin air, I’m basing it off these StatsCan estimates. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2020003-eng.htm

I’d argue that international migration would be the most stable out of all these categories (almost all of whom move into multifamily rentals, it’s very rare in my experience for new immigrants to immediately buy property, and I can state that from my own family’s transition from rental to SFH housing)

Ans that's Edmonton proper, I'm assuming, by these numbers. We could possibly see up to 300000 in the CMA, within the same time span. If we're thinking 5 years, we'll be probably at close to 2M by 2037-38, which is at least 5 years prior to what has been predicted recently.

 

[David A]

Yes, assuming the current trends continue of approximately 40,000 to 60,000 per year growth in city and metro.

Historically more international immigrants have gravitated towards larger cities in Canada such as Toronto and Vancouver, but with affordability being such an issue now, I expect like everyone else they are looking elsewhere.

Also, it might be easier for someone new coming to Canada to go elsewhere if they don't already have existing ties to any particular place here.

 

[Kosy123]

Yes, assuming the current trends continue of approximately 40,000 to 60,000 per year growth in city and metro.

Historically more international immigrants have gravitated towards larger cities in Canada such as Toronto and Vancouver, but with affordability being such an issue now, I expect like everyone else they are looking elsewhere.

Also, it might be easier for someone new coming to Canada to go elsewhere if they don't already have existing ties to any particular place here.

Yup. A significant chunk of people (internationally) base it off family members and/or YouTubers of people of their ethnic background.

I’m from a Southeast Asian background and let me tell ya that affordability has straight up become one of the biggest talking points for new arrivals or soon to be new arrivals as well (especially on those YouTuber blogs. I personally don’t watch them, but my folks do). There’s enough stories of people landing in Toronto/Vancouver and then just dipping to Alberta after a year or two. Plus, there’s also word of mouth. There’s a critical mass that an immigrant community reaches where it constantly gets new arrivals despite the destination’s economic/social situation.

It’s that reason I’m treating that 40,000 growth per annum as a floor rather than a ceiling.

 

[Glenco]

I met a Ukrainian woman the other day who was originally going to go to Vancouver. While she was transferring in Istanbul she heard someone mentioning Edmonton so she thought either Vancouver or Edmonton. Then she found out about the cost of rentals in Vancouver so………….

 

[Tropical]

Question - when are we due for updated population figures by neighborhood? The most recent municipal census figures I can find are from 2019 and can feel woefully out of date.

Or is there another source I'm unaware of?

 

[David A]

I met a Ukrainian woman the other day who was originally going to go to Vancouver. While she was transferring in Istanbul she heard someone mentioning Edmonton so she thought either Vancouver or Edmonton. Then she found out about the cost of rentals in Vancouver so………….

Yep, Vancouver is more for millionaires not regular immigrants, but if you have tons of cash, perhaps questionably obtained that you want to get some out of Asia, South America or elsewhere then investing Vancouver property may be for you.

 

[Glenco]

View attachment 509506

Something happened

 

[ChazYEG]

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Really interesting comparison showing the city proper sizes vs Edmonton.

It's crazy how dense especially Vancouver and Toronto (but also Montreal) are, vs Edmonton (and Calgary), but how much denser Edmonton is than Ottawa, Winnipeg and Quebec City.

 

[IanO]

Edmonton is not denser than Ottawa, but is a smaller CMA in land size.

 

[ChazYEG]

Edmonton is not denser than Ottawa, but is a smaller CMA in land size.

Edmonton proper has ~1300/km2, Ottawa proper has just over 300/km2, and that is pretty much what you'd find on any reliable source.
Please, explain how Edmonton is not denser than Ottawa.

 

[BASE]

I thought Edmonton CMA was bigger in land size (it's too big imo). City of Ottawa itself bigger than city of Edmonton land wise for sure and much less dense in that regard.

 

[Avenuer]

Edmonton is not denser than Ottawa, but is a smaller CMA in land size.

Incorrect, the City of Ottawa has TONS of empty green space in their green belt, for example, which is much larger than all of the undeveloped areas within the City of Edmonton.

 

[IanO]

Talking CITY population, not CMA which is somewhat useless.

5​	Edmonton	Alberta	Large urban	1,151,635	1,070,998	+7.5%	627.2​	1,836.2​
6​	Ottawa–Gatineau	Ontario / Quebec	Large urban	1,068,821	994,576	+7.5%	549.49​	1,945.1​

WIKI

Winnipeg is denser than both at over 2000

 

[Avenuer]

Talking CITY population, not CMA which is somewhat useless.

5​	Edmonton	Alberta	Large urban	1,151,635	1,070,998	+7.5%	627.2​	1,836.2​
6​	Ottawa–Gatineau	Ontario / Quebec	Large urban	1,068,821	994,576	+7.5%	549.49​	1,945.1​

WIKI

Winnipeg is denser than both at over 2000

Not sure where that 549.49 for the City of Ottawa is from, but it's definitely larger than the City of Edmonton:

The City of Ottawa is MASSIVE - much larger than the City of Edmonton.