John Barber's commentary from the Globe:
Expo 2015 is ours for the taking. Uh oh
JOHN BARBER
The most shocking and potentially appalling thing about Toronto's fledgling bid to stage Expo 2015 is not that it will fail, like all previous local attempts at brass-ring seizure, but that it will win -- easily.
With only the Turkish city of Izmir in the competition so far, and Moscow demurring, waiting to see what we do, the very emergence of a Toronto bid could be enough to ensure its success. Indeed, it could be that the good grey folk at the Bureau of International Expositions are downright eager to implant their upcoming megaproject on our shores, at our expense.
We only lost our bid for Expo 2000 by one vote, a tie-breaker registered by the former government of East Germany in response to a bribe from the winning West Germans -- the last official act of the hated Communist regime and thus its final perfidy.
So this time we win. Then what?
It's all slightly scary. Unlike the previous two Olympics bids, which were well known and widely supported by the local yokelry throughout their gestation and through the heartbreaking competitions that followed, the Expo bid is a black box. Diligent consultants have produced attractive estimates of potential attendance and economic impact, but the city hall-based bid team is still struggling to articulate a compelling reason why we would want to undertake such a project in the first place.
Councillor Brian Ashton admits that that fundamental fogginess glared during his team's discussions with senior BIE officials in Paris this week.
"We talked about people, humanity, civil society, what makes Toronto different as a centre of foreign migration," Mr. Ashton said. "They wanted something more pointed."
So that's the No. 1 priority on the current Expo to-do list: Figure out why we want to have one.
We know it's going to cost a fortune -- at least $3.5-billion, before hoped-for revenues. What's the point?
"We know we have a little more work to do on the theme element," Mr. Ashton said.
The vision thing.
Happily, there are consultants working on that, figuring out what it is that Toronto and the world might like to celebrate nine years from now and boiling it down to a not-too-trite idealistic phrase.
But they don't have much time: Assuming Izmir submits its bid on June 30, at the BIE's annual convention, other potential hosts will then have six months to enter the contest. In addition to fashioning a good reason to do so, the Toronto team will have to obtain firm commitments of several billion dollars by Christmas.
In any event, selling the idea to Canadians will probably prove tougher than selling it abroad. It isn't cities but rather nations that apply to host Expos. Strong leadership from the national government is essential. "It's their bid," Mr. Ashton said. "If Ottawa says no, you're dead."
In fact, the new Harper government knows no more about the bid than the average Torontonian, and has said less. Busy husbanding the alienated west into power, it has no representatives from Toronto and an attitude toward the country's largest city that, at best, is traditional.
"The greatest challenge now is to have a prime minister who looks at this bid and sees a marvellous opportunity," Mr. Ashton said. "I want him to see some value in this -- not only for Toronto and the Golden Horseshoe but for Canada."
There is some foggy talk about inducing national participation by styling Expo 2015 as an ever-so-slightly premature sesquicentennial of Confederation. There is also some pouting about our deservedness, given the successes of Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary in such pursuits, contrasted with our past losses. But the best reason for the Harper government to say yes is that under current Canadian rules governing such bids, Queen's Park would have to pay for it.
But those rules don't work. Although the McGuinty government is already supporting the Expo bid, financially and otherwise, it could never afford the whole nut.
Mr. Ashton imagines the budget being shared relative to each government's Expo-led gain in tax revenue, adding that federal officials have already assured him that a first-class world's fair is "not too hard to say yes to." Could it be, he wonders, that the Harper government says yes and the McGuinty government blocks the way?
Whatever happens, the mercy is that it will have to happen soon. Plucky Izmir will set the clock ticking on June 30. With luck, we will know the bid's fate before succumbing to sugarplum visions of the sort that two failed Olympic bids created and then cruelly shattered.
If anything, the Expo vision is even more beguiling. Unlike the largely prefabricated Olympics, Expos are conceived and developed locally, allowing cities greater flexibility in making statements and in capturing lasting benefits -- whether it's new transit or, in the case of Expo 2015's site in the port lands, a whole new urban district.
The 1972 Montreal Olympics were a disaster, but Expo 67, in the same city, had a magical effect on the morale of the nation and on its international image.
There we go dreaming again -- a dangerous pastime.
AoD