[mdrejhon]

I think the goal was to please everybody with an LRT and GO expansion announcement. So far I think they have done a good job doing that.

This is correct. Hamilton Mountain and Stoney Creek are more interested in GO expansion (as the LRT is part of Lower City at the moment, not the Mountain), and having a GO announcement helps a lot. In addition, the James Street spur is the very early beginnings of the already-proposed A-Line LRT (Airport LRT -- which leads up the mountain to the Hamilton Airport / future Airport Business Lands). Some of them are against the Lower City gaining the LRT. Embedding a GO expansion announcement in the LRT announcement, is a shrewed political move. Construction start date (2017) of the new GO station is also earlier than the LRT, and even starts shovels before the next mayor/provincial election. Contract signing (procurement) of LRT is before the election too even if shovels begin in 2019, so both GO and LRT will be extremely hard to cheaply cancel for the next municipal/provincial government.

 

[TOareaFan]

Certainly good points. This page from the Ontario Chamber of Commerce pegs 2012 - 2014 growth at 0.7 - 0.8% per year and estimates 0.7% growth in 2015. In comparison, I believe the 2013 growth rate in Toronto was something like 1.5% (not sure what 2014 was like).

In regards to the new people simply replacing existing people in single-family units, that is definitely a good point, but I believe part of the theory (and again, this is just taken from newspaper articles and I can't think of any actual studies on the topic) is that young people (who are about to start families) are starting to replace older people that no longer have children residing with them.

Although if you look at the Outlook provided by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, it shows that intraprovincial immigration just slightly edges out international immigration for adding people to Hamilton's population. What would be really interesting would be data on the age of these people immigrating to the city.

I was actually thinking of it in comparison to some 905 communities that are seeing +/- 4-5% annual growth....but even if you compare it to Toronto 1.5% of 2.6mil is a significantly larger amount of people than .7-1% of 520k.



So we are counting on some sort of Hamilton specific echo boom in, what, 5 - 10 years?

Sorry, I edited my post as I had quoted some of the wrong numbers (it's late, apologies!)

No question. I'm not trying to make any claims that Hamilton is some sort of growth monster. It definitely has had a lot of localized problems that have prevented it from growing at the same pace as the rest of the GTA. I do, however, think that housing market pressure is slowly changing this and it is likely going to start seeing higher percentages of population growth.


I'm not counting on anything. Huh?

This conversation came to mind as I read that silly, now annual, report from Moneysense magazine about the best places to live in Canada.....while I think overall the report is stupid (and stupidly put together) they publish some data that is interesting.

Hamilton (which, if you care, ranked 41st) showed:

Population: 551,897
Population Change (2010 To 2015): 3.8%

Toronto (35th)

Population: 2,807,334
Population Change (2010 To 2015): 4.9%

Brampton (154th)

Population: 592,617
Population Change (2010 To 2015): 12.7%

Like I said the city rankings are silly.....I don't want to get into a debate over the merits of any of the cities/towns we have chosen to live in but let's just point out that Brampton's overall ranking of 154 is the 2nd worst of any city in Canada with a population of 400k or more (ie. what they call large cities). Far be it for me to suggest it is "better" than any of the 13 large cities that rank above it......but I do wonder how it merits consideration as a better place to live in than the only large city that ranks below it.....Montreal (161)

EDIT: I should also state that one of my pet peeves when we discuss transit infrastructure and investment is the oft used terms "fast growing KW region" or "fast growing SW Ontario".....population growth in KW & C from 2010 to 2015 are, respectively, 5.8%/3.2%/4.4%.....while London's is 3.6%.

It looks like Milton is still fastest growing at 25.1% over the 5 years but it is easy t see that as their denominator grows their eye popping % growth is falling in line.

 

[mdrejhon]

The rankings are pretty generic and average. It's possible to find pockets in Brampton that's far nicer to live than, say, the worst part of Toronto. Or vice-versa. I say this, even as a Hamiltonian

Broken down block by block, there's really a massive overlap, with nice parts and bad parts of all cities. And it breaks down even further depending on your goals (nightlife? parks? neighbourliness? city centre? suburbs? etc.)

An example of priorities. Our neighbour gave us an apple pie when we moved to our house in Hamilton. In the neighbourliness department, we found our block in Hamilton unexpectedly ranks many, many, many rungs above many places in 416 Toronto, and even more neighbourly than Riverdale/Cabbagetown (the area we both used to live in); we've made more friends in less than six months, than all of 3 years in Toronto living in two different locations in Toronto. There are great people and neighborhoods, but they can be hard to find. It gets cheaper in places like Pickering and Brampton, and perhaps, the neighbourliness factor goes up (that I don't know -- perhaps you Pickering and Brampton residents can chime in how amazing your neighbours are), which isn't necessarily accounted for in the "best city to live in the world" surveys.

Now... on the other hand, I certainly concede we rank fairly low in public transit (at least until the LRT and major bus upgrades). Easily lower than even transit-inadequate Brampton, and we definitely rank far lower than Toronto for public transit (at least on the major TTC routes).

Also, I have long ago learned the "best city to live in the world" behaves very, very differently with people tight on money, versus people who have lots of money. The ones in the rich international magazines are somewhat biased towards people who can afford any of the city listed in the list. 416 Toronto is a fantastic city to live if you can afford it and have the time to enjoy all the expensive amenities all the time, without periods of struggling between periods of enjoying the city. I suspect a lot more-struggling central Torontoians are so focussed working hard and paying their lifestyle, or super-expensive rent or mortgage, in an expensive city that they have less time for friends, or being able to afford near-downtown Toronto's expensive life (on average, anyway).

 

[TOareaFan]

^you read the part where I was dismissive of (and noted there is no point debating) the rankings....was simply just using their source data to update population figures and growth rates.

 

[crs1026]

I did a little sidewalk snooping down at Stuart Street today. It looks like there will be enough work completed to allow GO trains to load and unload at the James Street station, but to say it will be "finished" is very optimistic.

The work to triple track the Oakville Sub from Bayview Jct into Hamilton is beginning in earnest. A very impressive access road has been dug into the site. Some brush clearing and staking has been done as well as stabilisation of the shoreline. It looks like work is beginning to do the tiebacks and then the pile driving to build a retaining wall along the bay side of the embankment. As was the case when the triple tracking was done east of Bayview, there will be a huge amount of fill required between the existing trackage and the shoreline. This will clearly be a year or more in the making.

- Paul

 

[reaperexpress]

June 4th update on the Barrie Line double-tracking project through Vaughan:

There's been some pretty decent progress on grading the segment between Rivermede Road and Langstaff Road. The second track is being added to the east of the existing one.

This segment includes widening a fairly substantial embankment just south of Langstaff Road.

Typical segment, looking south:

The start of the embankment, demarcated by the cut fence:

The embankment looking north toward Langstaff:

Pardon my hand in the last one, I had to trick my phone's camera into giving a decent exposure despite pointing directly toward the sun.

 

[mdrejhon]

I did a little sidewalk snooping down at Stuart Street today. It looks like there will be enough work completed to allow GO trains to load and unload at the James Street station, but to say it will be "finished" is very optimistic.

West Harbour station work will continue through 2017, including the 300-car parking garage. But it definitely looks like the station will at least be usable for PanAm, they've made much quicker progress since spring started. I even see trackage being rapidly built towards the station every time I pass by, trackage should arrive within a few days I'd hope, if not already.

The work to triple track the Oakville Sub from Bayview Jct into Hamilton is beginning in earnest. A very impressive access road has been dug into the site. Some brush clearing and staking has been done as well as stabilisation of the shoreline. It looks like work is beginning to do the tiebacks and then the pile driving to build a retaining wall along the bay side of the embankment. As was the case when the triple tracking was done east of Bayview, there will be a huge amount of fill required between the existing trackage and the shoreline. This will clearly be a year or more in the making.

This should hopefully make good progress towards increased and faster Hamilton GO train service when that triple tracking is done. One can wish for all-day two-way GO service, even if every 2 hours, to happen sooner rather than later. The plans say 60 minute 2-way service by 2024-2025, which is an awfully long wait. We shall see!

 

[innsertnamehere]

what is CN doing pulling passenger cars in that first image?

Also, I'm working in Vaughan now and have been driving on Langstaff a lot recently.. The amount of fill required for that embankment was significant. a good month of constant truck loads of soil.

 

[nfitz]

what is CN doing pulling passenger cars in that first image?

The CN locomotive isn't on the same track as the Amtrak coaches - which I think you can see a bit of a passenger locomotive on the other end. Isn't that where the Amtrak train from New York City to Toronto passes?

I'd hazard a guess that's yesterday's train from New York City, which arrived at Aldershot at 7:28 pm.

 

[vegeta_skyline]

Great photo's Paul & reaper. Been a while since I've been down either of those lines, its nice to see progress.

what is CN doing pulling passenger cars in that first image?

Just the timing of the photo, if you look closely you can see the end door of the Amtrak coach.

 

[mdrejhon]

It looks like an Aldershot south parking lot expansion going on. About time. At least until all day two way Hamilton service.

 

[crs1026]

what is CN doing pulling passenger cars in that first image?

That was CN train 422 (Niagara-Toronto) passing the VIA/Amtrak train heading from Toronto to New York. The two trains are on different tracks.

The VIA/Amtrak train was waiting for the freight to pull off the single-track Grimsby Sub so that it could proceed south and then eastwards through Hamilton. Yes, there's a point I'm making with this picture....

There are only four mainline freight trains in this territory, 421/422 which run Fort Erie-Toronto, and 330/331 which run Fort Erie - Sarnia. You'd think that even the existing track configuration would leave lots of capacity for passenger trains.....but it's funny how those freight trains get first priority. (It is CN's line, after all).

The freight could have been held on the east side of Hamilton, where double track resumes, to let the passenger proceed without delay, but CN gives its own trains priority and the passenger schedules are slower as a result. Hence GO and VIA have to pay to have more tracks added. When the work is finished at Hamilton, there will be double track throughout the city, and there will be a third track from James Street over to about this point, to provide for GO service. You would think that would eliminate this kind of delay. Let's watch and see.

- Paul

 

[mdrejhon]

Even with this improvement, there will be track crossing with freight, to get on the opposite side of freight tracks. A rail-to-rail grade separation would then now be needed to completely eliminate freight interference, in order to extend 15-min RER service beyond Aldershot. (15-20 year timeline?)

 

[crs1026]

Even with this improvement, there will be track crossing with freight, to get on the opposite side of freight tracks. A rail-to-rail grade separation would then now be needed to completely eliminate freight interference, in order to extend 15-min RER service beyond Aldershot. (15-20 year timeline?)

Check the maps carefully when Metrolinx does its next round of public consultations. There is no plan to extend electrification beyond Aldershot. This isn't even possible, absent an agreement with CN - Metrolinx doesn't own the ROW. For all practical purposes, the RER expansion will terminate at Aldershot.

We may see hourly diesel powered trains from Centennial (or beyond), and that may actually be a good thing, if they run express or semi-express from Aldershot to Union. (Digression - Maybe this would be a good application for the UPX fleet in a few years....electrify UPX with new rolling stock rather than convert the DMU's, and cascade the DMU's to an express service to Niagara Region. But we shouldn't design transit around the rolling stock!)

- Paul

 

[mdrejhon]

Check the maps carefully when Metrolinx does its next round of public consultations. There is no plan to extend electrification beyond Aldershot. This isn't even possible, absent an agreement with CN - Metrolinx doesn't own the ROW. For all practical purposes, the RER expansion will terminate at Aldershot.

Impossible? Hogwash!

Granted, it is going to be extremely difficult. The corridor width has room for two additional tracks all the way to Welland Canal, and Metrolinx is adding additional trackage. Electrifation is not incompatible with freight; diesel freight trains go under catenary in many countries, so it is a matter of an agreement with CN of some kind.

The funded $150M to Stoney Creek ($35M station, $115 corridor improvement) includes new Metrolinx-funded trackage installation in the CN corridor. So once there's Metrolinx trackage, there's no restriction against installing an overhead wire as long as it does not conflict with CN freight height clearance requirements, as long as CN is getting a bit of money and/or night running rights, etc, in return, especially if it's just Metrolinx-funded track that's upgraded without disrupting adjacent CN track. Even if CN ultimately owns the Metrolinx-funded trackage, but with full Metrolinx track running rights on the added track during daytime where it doesn't intersect with current CN track. Thers some kind of areangement already of some sort that let Metrolinx add extra track to CN owned corridor in some parts of the Ontario network. So this has precedent. It is just overhead wire added to the mix. Not simple but not impossible.

It is true there is no plan in the current 10 year cycle to electrify pasts Aldershot.

However, Hamilton electricifation is mentioned in numerous Metrolinx long term plans (e.g. Metrolinx 2010 Electricifation Study, and various other documents like Metrolinx 2031). One of the PDFs show a multi-phased electrification concept that went from Phase 1 through 7, with Hamiltion being Phase 7. The current GO RER plans seems to be accomplishing only the first four phases (I think).

In other words, expect an announcement in the mid-to-late 2020s, assuming the current GO RER is not cancelled. Otherwise, expect an announcement in 2030s, unless there's a big U.S. debt default, then expect an announcement in the 2040s.