The key thing to remember is all of this cost $$$ ... for a subway ... a lot of it!
All of these reports really fail to mention where the money will come from. If you really think we'll get all this money (at least in some timely matter) I think your way off.
So the question becomes how to most effectively spend the $$$ we will get. My argument is that a subway to Steeles and a dedicated lane on Yonge is best (no LRT on Yonge is even needed).
I disagree but it's not a ridiculous argument to make.
That said, it's basically moot at this point. York Region wants the subway and the province wants it and the planning is all but done already.
I think you also might be underestimating how many bus routes won't go to Finch anymore. According to York Region, 19 bus routes will stop at Langstaff. Steeles has 16 (obviously some are the same). Still, that's 140 buses an hour stopping at Steeles instead of going to Finch.
I think all the condo development you see north of Sheppard now will basically extend to Hwy 7 in the next 20 years, aside from a break around the Thornhill heritage district. It might not be quite on that scale but it will be a major change from what's there now.
The money thing was half-answered yesterday. The money for the subway is there right now. As for the $30 billion for post-2015 projects? That remains unclear, though I expect the feds to step up with the $6 billion for Move2020 sooner or later.
I understand the quibbles about ridership numbers but it's really all academic - we're talking about changing the culture of how people get around the GTA, and the 905 in particular. I don't want to blab on about modal splits but the transit has to be there if the condo plans coming down the pipe in Thornhill and Richmond Hill aren't going to swamp the surrounding communities.
Metrolinx says their plan will cut commutes by 5 minutes which really sounds not worth it. But then remember we're talking about adding 2.5 million people while not allowing the commute to get longer. That, in itself, is an achivement. At this point, of course, it's also merely an educated guess....