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AIUI that was never the goal. The reason we’ve been social distancing and closed the economy was to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. With fewer than a hundred people in ICUs with Covid province-wide, I’d say we’re on the right track. We knew the numbers were going to increase in the autumn as people moved back inside and school started back up. Let’s hope the hospitals, unlike LTR homes have used these six months to prepare for the predicted increase in case numbers.

Perhaps the goal should have changed right from the get go then? Getting to zero community infection meant that you can actually focus on externally acquired cases and allow durable re-opening - instead of "this".

And "hope" isn't going to get you anywhere.

AoD
 
I generally find people who advocate to just keeping everything shut down to have no cases are people who are likely working from home and just living off Amazon prime...

To them a shut down has no real negative effects.

We have to find ways to function not just lock down .

- we can't shut down all schools as parents need to work and can't work from home.
We can move more kids to online though.

- If we shut down bars and restaurants till next spring we pretty much will have a city without any bars and restaurants and will be a devastating effect on the city.

We can have more restrictions

- we need a way to test a lot of people who really don't need tests and do so for peace of mind. So getting those people out of the hospitals and assessment centers to more localized settings such as a pharmacy make sense.


So cases will go up...its not just Doug fords fault or Trudeau's fault. This is a global trend.
 
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I generally find people who advocate to just keeping everything shut down to have no cases are people who are likely working from home and just living off Amazon prime...

To them a shut down has no real negative effects.

The initial shut down was done to protect public health and avoid overwhelming hospitals, which would threaten everyone. If the situation gets as bad as it was a few months ago, then it should be reinstated in some way, for the same reasons. Nobody wants people to be out of work or businesses to fail, but protecting public health is paramount.

Whether or not there are stricter measures, let's be realistic and say that most restaurants will be toast before the end of the year.
 
The initial shut down was done to protect public health and avoid overwhelming hospitals, which would threaten everyone. If the situation gets as bad as it was a few months ago, then it should be reinstated in some way, for the same reasons. Nobody wants people to be out of work or businesses to fail, but protecting public health is paramount.

Whether or not there are stricter measures, let's be realistic and say that most restaurants will be toast before the end of the year.

The whole COVID control episode reminds me of the band-aid analogy - do you pull it off quickly, or do you slowly pull it off to avoid as much as possible the initial pain. We as a society chose the latter.

AoD
 
The initial shut down was done to protect public health and avoid overwhelming hospitals, which would threaten everyone. If the situation gets as bad as it was a few months ago, then it should be reinstated in some way, for the same reasons. Nobody wants people to be out of work or businesses to fail, but protecting public health is paramount.

Whether or not there are stricter measures, let's be realistic and say that most restaurants will be toast before the end of the year.


Issue is public support for a spring like full lockdown is not there anymore and many would not follow it.


We have had thousands of cases this month and had hardly any deaths so clearly its not like April 2020.

We can put in some limits and slow the cases down and do more if needed.

But we can't close everything down to eliminate the virus and go full doomer either.
 
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Issue is public support for a spring like full lockdown is not there anymore and many would not follow it.

So what, when and if a full lockdown is required declare a public emergency and throw the most prominent ones in jail should they chose to violate the order. For all the talk about law and order don't make excuses for those who refuses to behave in a manner required of them for the protection of the greater good.

AoD
 
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We have had thousands of cases this month and had hardly any deaths so clearly its not like April 2020.

rona20200921.jpeg


We probably have a better handle on it now than we did before, but maybe we just need to wait for those death numbers to catch up....

Source:
 
The delay is real - but I think you have the wrong peak in deaths- it's the one at April 15 or so; the peak in deaths in early May comes from the peak in new cases back in mid-April (approx. 2 weeks).

AoD

Yeah, I wasn't aiming for the peak, but a comparison of where we're at with new cases. Seems like we're still climbing towards that peak.

Edit: Ah, I see what you mean about April 15. Yes.....
 
And it isn’t just about deaths. It’s about the strain on the health care system, whether that is in the ICU or people with long term health impacts. For many, you don’t just “get over” COVID. It lingers, and it reminds you that it isn’t just another flu for some time to come.
 
The U.S. balked at this vaccine-sharing effort — but Canada is in

From link.

Canada has officially signed onto a major international effort to share potential COVID-19 vaccines and hopefully make sure countries with fewer resources aren’t left out in the cold.

On Monday, Canada was listed among the countries that have officially joined the COVAX Facility, a strategy designed to guarantee “rapid, fair and equitable access” to COVID-19 vaccines to every country.

It was launched this spring by the World Health Organization and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Gavi alliance, among others. While Canada had previously expressed interest, its participation is now official.

The general idea behind COVAX is to allow member countries to pool both money and risk by investing in a range of potential vaccines. Then, if any prove successful, the group can quickly get its hands on them.

According to a statement from Gavi, there are now 64 higher-income countries committed, with another 38 expected to sign on in the coming days.

Notably absent is the United States, which made headlines earlier this month when the Trump administration said it would not participate in the effort.

There are two pieces to the COVAX effort.

While the COVAX Facility is all about getting access to vaccines, there is also a funding arm, called the COVAX Advance Market Commitment, which is trying to make sure that low-income countries have a spot at the table. If all goes according to plan, any eventual doses would be shared among a mix of high-income countries, such as Canada, that have contributed financially, and also poorer countries that are supported by donations.

According to the release, this second part has a target of raising US $2 billion by the end of the year, and currently it has about $700 million, raised from donor countries, the private sector and philanthropists.

There also 92 low- and middle-income countries that are eligible to receive vaccines through the COVAX facility, according to Gavi.

“This means that 156 economies, representing roughly 64% of the global population in total, are now either committed to or eligible for the COVAX Facility, with more to follow,” Gavi said in a release.

“COVAX is now in business: Governments from every continent have chosen to work together, not only to secure vaccines for their own populations, but also to help ensure that vaccines are available to the most vulnerable everywhere,” Dr. Seth Berkley, CEO of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, said in a statement.

“With the commitments we’re announcing today for the COVAX Facility, as well as the historic partnership we are forging with industry, we now stand a far better chance of ending the acute phase of this pandemic once safe, effective vaccines become available.”

COVAX is not Canada’s only plan to procure vaccines.

The federal government has signed advanced purchase agreements with four different biopharmaceutical companies should any of their candidates pass both clinical testing and Health Canada approval, in a move that has drawn accusations from some health and policy experts that this country is engaging in “vaccine nationalism.”

In an interview last week, federal Procurement Minister Anita Anand said that Canada was supportive of “the objectives and principles” of the COVAX Facility, as the only global procurement mechanism that allows countries to share risk.

In a statement Monday, a spokesperson for Karina Gould, the federal minister of international development, added the government is commited to “equitable access” to vaccines for people in developing countries.

“We’re working to finalize our global approach, and we will have more to share soon. Canada cannot be fully safe and healthy until everyone is.”

The goal of the project — which will depend on how much money is contributed by partner governments — is to deliver two billion vaccine doses by the end of 2021 that have all either passed regulatory approval or been pre-qualified by WHO.

While countries such as Canada are able to request a specific number of doses — which will determine how much they have to chip in — lower-income countries will receive a share of doses based on their population.

Now that dozens of countries have officially signed up, the COVAX Facility’s next step will be to start signing formal agreements with vaccine manufacturers and developers.
 
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We probably have a better handle on it now than we did before, but maybe we just need to wait for those death numbers to catch up....

Source:

Many countries are reporting thousands of cases each day but only a few deaths so its a global trend.


The mass death seen NYC and North Italy required millions of infections rather then a few thousand cases that were actually reported. The amount of testing going on we are now catching most of the new cases then a small fraction.

So we may have had 400 cases in April but it likely was tens of thousands or even way higher.


NOW, if we let things go to wild and allow millions to get infected we will face a NYC problem.
 

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