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Y'all were saying? I reckon I was on to something.

Screenshot_20240917_174611_Gmail.jpg
 
Yeah, the CPC have been saying they'll push a confidence vote for a week now on carbon pricing. The BQ have said they won't bring the government down.
 
If Trudeau is Prime Minister or not the Liberals face another byelection before the end of the year:

nationalpost.com

More baleful byelections are brewing for the Trudeau Liberals after the fall of St. Paul's

These looming battlegrounds could either signal a turnaround for the Liberals, or add to their growing sense of demise.
nationalpost.com nationalpost.com

More baleful byelections are brewing for the Trudeau Liberals after the fall of St. Paul's​

These looming battlegrounds, most currently held by the Liberals, could either signal a turnaround for the party, or add to their growing sense of demise

Cloverdale—Langley City​



Previously: Liberal



Expected byelection: Before Jan. 4, 2025



The most daunting challenge for the Liberals could be holding onto the riding of Cloverdale—Langley City, in British Columbia’s Lower Mainland.



The riding has been hard fought between the Liberals and Conservatives for the last three elections, with only narrow margins of victory for either party. MP John Aldag announced he would be stepping down and formally resigned at the end of May. He is seeking to run for the British Columbia NDP in the provincial election expected this fall.



Trudeau will have to announce the date of the byelection before the end of November.



In 2021, Aldag and the Liberals won the riding by about three points, roughly the same margin that decided the race in 2019 when Conservative Tamara Jansen won, and has announced she will run again. It has become a much fiercer battleground over the years than it was in 2015, when Aldag won the riding by nearly 10 percentage points.
 
If the NDP do what they said and would vote on an issue-by-issue basis, then I think the government can survive for some time. The Liberals just need either the NDP or the Bloc to vote with them. If the NDP say they won't vote for something, then the Liberals can either not bring that item to a vote, or make concessions to the Bloc instead. I don't think either the Bloc or NDP want an election right now, so I would think they'd find some way to find common ground on various issues.
 
Dan416 said:
If the NDP do what they said and would vote on an issue-by-issue basis, then I think the government can survive for some time. The Liberals just need either the NDP or the Bloc to vote with them. If the NDP say they won't vote for something, then the Liberals can either not bring that item to a vote, or make concessions to the Bloc instead. I don't think either the Bloc or NDP want an election right now, so I would think they'd find some way to find common ground on various issues.
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Singh wants pharmacare to pass the Senate AND protect his pension. So, no election until Feb 2025.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Singh wants pharmacare to pass the Senate AND protect his pension. So, no election until Feb 2025.
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As I said before, the NDP Care less about Jagmeet than they do their own survival. If Jagmeet looks like he is putting his own interests ahead of the nation, their support will tank.
 
Richard White said:
As I said before, the NDP Care less about Jagmeet than they do their own survival. If Jagmeet looks like he is putting his own interests ahead of the nation, their support will tank.
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There are multiple senior and influential Dippers who also need to wait out to the pension date. It's not just a Singh thing. None of them will pull the trigger.
 
The Feds will cut the International Student intake by a further 10% and make some not yet specified changes that will reduce eligibility for work permits for students.


Fine, but with so many streams of programs for funneling people into the country, we need to see the global total in one spot, and that number needs to drop precipitously.
 
Admiral Beez said:
There are multiple senior and influential Dippers who also need to wait out to the pension date. It's not just a Singh thing. None of them will pull the trigger.
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There's also a bunch of people that won't get their pension till next October. Do they hold out that long or screw those people for personal political interests after the big wigs have qualified.

The pension thing (while perhaps a back of the mind motivation) is particularly silly for Poilievre to grandstand on. That guy has never had a job outside politics and is sitting on a 20 yr MP pension.
 
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Northern Light said:
The Feds will cut the International Student intake by a further 10% and make some not yet specified changes that will reduce eligibility for work permits for students.
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The bizarre thing for me is how slowly the LPC is moving on this when they have the perfect opportunity here to reveal the premiers (mostly conservative) for the cynical charlatans they are. Ford is balancing the budget in Ontario thanks to those students paying for colleges. Same in Nova Scotia. Quebec is literally forcing English language schools to pay up and subsidize French schools which don't get the same number of foreign students. If the Trudeau had the slightest bit of a Machiavellian instinct, he would force a huge cut in immigration, driving all these provinces into fiscal chaos while actually winning points from the electorate. It's so bizarre how wedded they are to high immigration irrespective of the political costs.
 
kEiThZ said:
It's so bizarre how wedded they are to high immigration irrespective of the political costs.
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It is odd. I see no benefit to the LPC from high immigration. First of all they cannot vote until they're citizens, and secondly, once they are citizens they're just as likely to vote Conservative. Meanwhile you're driving up unemployment to nearly double that of the USA, rocketing up housing costs and driving down wages. Who does Trudeau think he's serving here? And that's where Trudeau fails us, after nearly ten years as PM we do not know his plan (outside of the climate issue) on where he wants to take us. What's his vision for Canada?

I would pull the brakes on immigration outside of strategic and specific professionals, and only those with Foreign Educational Credentials that are deemed (before they are approved as immigrants) as both comparable to Canadian standards and accepted by the industry or professional association to which they are aiming to join. Immigration must remain throttled until housing costs and availability, employment and wages return to at least their pre-Trudeau levels.
 
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