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King of Kensington

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The pollster suggesting Ford has no chance of being elected is rather premature.

It is likely the same 'experts' who thought Ford had zero chance of being premier.

The issue is Ford will keep 30-35% of the vote no matter what I think, and I think Horwath is a rather one-dimensional leader to really inspire a lot of non-ndp types to rally behind her.

So it does not mean Ford is unstoppable but I suggest people stop underestimating him as well.

The pollsters pretty much all predicted a Ford majority.

Of course his chances of being re-elected are (a bit) higher than zero, but it's interesting to note that 1 out of 4 Conservative voters were not satisfied with the result. Next time he won't have a "time for a change" vote. Ford is certainly governing for "his base" which is about 30% of the population.
 

WislaHD

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Jasmine18

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NO one ever underestimated Doug Ford, it was the uninformed, uncaring, and stupid serial conservative voters that got him elected. And yeah blaming those who couldn't get off their arse to vote too.


Both your points don't hold up to the reality in the last election..

People came out to vote provincially in greater numbers than they ever did over the Ontario Liberal Years with over 58% turnout the highest since 1999. I am quite certain the next Ontario election will see a strong turnout as well.

In Comparison it was in 2007 52%, 2011 48%, 2014 51%.

Therefore people were far more engaged in this election than any recent Ontario election, so the point about people being lazy is false. Maybe the turnout should be higher but in comparison to the norm, it was up by a good amount :)

Also Ford got a lot of PC support in non-traditional PC ridings showing he got votes outside the typical 'serial conservative base' and likely poached the moderate vote that usually went liberal the past 15 years.
 

W. K. Lis

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Hmmm.

According to Wikipedia, at this link:

Under the procedure outlined by the (Liberal) party's constitution, the leader is likely to be chosen in a traditional delegated leadership convention in which up to 2,000+ delegates would be eligible to vote, made up of 1,984 elected delegates (16 elected by proportional representation in each of the 124 provincial riding associations) in addition to ex officio delegates (current and former Liberal MPPs, defeated candidates from the last election, riding association presidents, party executive officers and other party officials, and federal Liberal MPs for Ontario), youth delegates from campus clubs and delegates representing the Women's Commission. Riding delegates would be able to run on the slate of a leadership candidate or as independents; in the case of the former they would be required to vote for that candidate on the first ballot but would be free to change their support subsequently. Balloting at convention would continue until one candidate receives a majority of ballots cast.

Members of all political parties, provincial and federal, have been known to "cross the floor". Wondering if there will be a time, BEFORE the Ontario Liberal leadership convention, that Christine Elliott and Caroline Mulroney may have had enough, and will "cross the floor". Could Christine Elliott or Caroline Mulroney become the next leader of the Ontario Liberal party?
 

animatronic

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Debating whether Doug is a crudely effective simpleton or a cunning genius of distraction misses what's going on.

He is a disruptive moron, as anyone who has worked a file with him knows. He is actively stirring up shit because that’s all he knows to do.

His back office (Jenni Byrne et al) know exactly what they are doing. The Toronto crisis is absolutely a planned distraction, designed to maximize chaos and fundraising while centralizing provincial power and whipping a caucus that almost uniformly distrusts their leader. This is Act 1 of the Nonsense Revolution, and Doug is just the head clown.
 

King of Kensington

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Did anyone catch Todd Smith's appearance on CP24 yesterday where apparently he was interrupted by his "deputy" Stephen Lecce ranting against Toronto city council?
 
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W. K. Lis

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Did anyone catch Todd Smith's appearance on CP24 yesterday where apparently he was interrupted by his "deputy" Stephen Lecce ranting against Toronto city council?

Stephen Lecce is MPP for King-Vaughan. Why is he ranting about a place outside of his riding? Maybe they are planning for Vaughan to annex Toronto?
 

sixrings

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where are PC people supposed to vote though if they dont like Ford? I voted NDP when I typically vote Liberal. Are they supposed to spoil their vote?
 

King of Kensington

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Kathleen Wynne was unable to retain the support of blue Liberals in spite of her attacks on the NDP for being too ideologically rigid and too tied to unions.
 

WislaHD

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where are PC people supposed to vote though if they dont like Ford? I voted NDP when I typically vote Liberal. Are they supposed to spoil their vote?
Honestly, if there was ever a time for a "Party of the Greater Golden Horseshoe" to emerge and actually do well, it would have been this year.

I very much doubt that either the PC or the NDP were particularly popular. They were just not Kathleen Wynne.
 

King of Kensington

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Hamilton is a pretty solid NDP town. I don't think they'd get excited about a GGH party (the McGuinty/Wynne Liberals didn't do so well in Hamilton even as they dominated the GTA).
 

adma

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The pollster suggesting Ford has no chance of being elected is rather premature.

It is likely the same 'experts' who thought Ford had zero chance of being premier.

The issue is Ford will keep 30-35% of the vote no matter what I think, and I think Horwath is a rather one-dimensional leader to really inspire a lot of non-ndp types to rally behind her.

So it does not mean Ford is unstoppable but I suggest people stop underestimating him as well.

First, who says that Horwath will still be leader in 2022 (not that she *shouldn't* be, but...)

Second, if we may learn from Justin in '15, don't underestimate the Liberals' comeback potential--even when presently w/o official party status

Third, who says Ford will still be premier by 2022, even--I can picture him jumping or being pushed by then...
 

zang

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Also Ford got a lot of PC support in non-traditional PC ridings showing he got votes outside the typical 'serial conservative base' and likely poached the moderate vote that usually went liberal the past 15 years.

Ford got a lot of the "never-voters". Those people for whom no recent candidate has been "conservative" enough (ie; dog-whistle racists, homophobes, isolationists, shit-on-the-system-and-blow-it-all-up types). Ford attracted a lot of terrible people with terrible motivations into voting when they rarely ever do. These same people (like Trumpanzees before), complain about government spending, efficiencies and "economic uncertainty", but heard the "take care of our own" statement in the way they wanted to. The way that makes them think that he can do something to make them feel safe from the gays, brown people and latte-sippers who make them feel guilty for being selfish pricks.
 

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