[Northern Light]

May I suggest a fact-based discussion is always the best for all involved; and must always involve numbers in context.

From RBC, an economist's wet dream of charts comparing the provinces on revenues, expenses, and debt in absolute numbers, vs GDP and per capita.

http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/provincial-forecasts/prov_fiscal.pdf

Note than Ontario's debt is high in its peer group; with that to be expected given our relative population, in the absolute numbers.

However, Ontario's debt to GDP, and per capita are also at the high end of the comparison chart.

The numbers are not outright scary, but should be of concern.

That said, how about we look at those revenue and expense numbers.

Ontario's program expenses are at the low end.

So are its revenues.

The debt therefore is not logically caused, primarily, by over-spending; since spending in our peer-group is higher in most other provinces.

So it follows logically when you look at inordinately low revenues, that the cause lies there.

That choice, not to take HST back to 15% as was made in Quebec and the Atlantic region or to raise corporate tax back to 12% as was done in BC and Alberta is
where the problem lies.

The annual shortfall has been covered by debt.

That is not to say there have not been some wasteful and regrettable financial choices along the way, but suggesting that these are inordinate is belied by the facts.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

You exquisitely represent the ill-informed and reactionary hyperbole of Ford. Good job! Keep it up. Some don't yet realize the idiocy of the man.

Since you use the term "sub-sovereign" in a way you won't be able to explain in cogent terms, let alone in context, allow me to post the list of largest *sovereign* debtors in the world:
View attachment 137150
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

Ontario's debt is something to be concerned about, without doubt. All the more reason to not have a buffoon with a past in crime sitting on top of it.

If, by "sub-sovereign" you mean a geographical political region within a nation, Ontario doesn't even come close to many US states when *measured on the same criteria*.

Go ahead, make my day, have another shot....

Where did this claim of Ontario being the largest sub sovereign debtor even originate?

 

[narduch]

Where did this claim of Ontario being the largest sub sovereign debtor even originate?

Conservative talking point

 

[Northern Light]

Where did this claim of Ontario being the largest sub sovereign debtor even originate?

My impression was that it became a media talking point after S&P downgraded the province's credit rating one notch a couple of years back.

http://business.financialpost.com/n...e-worlds-most-indebted-sub-sovereign-borrower

 

[steveintoronto]

Note than Ontario's debt is high in its peer group; with that to be expected given our relative population, in the absolute numbers.

However, Ontario's debt to GDP, and per capita are also at the high end of the comparison chart.

The numbers are not outright scary, but should be of concern.

That said, how about we look at those revenue and expense numbers.

Ontario's program expenses are at the low end.

So are its revenues.

The debt therefore is not logically caused, primarily, by over-spending; since spending in our peer-group is higher in most other provinces.

So it follows logically when you look at inordinately low revenues, that the cause lies there.

Absolutely, and some had best get used to knowing how to put the 'debt mantras' in perspective, because it's going to become one of the major rant/chants of the reactionaries.

We've just had an excellent demonstration in this forum of how some, many, if not most of the Ford drive-shafts grind their gears, and spline their spleens thinking noise is the key to forward propulsion. Fortunately, Wynne is excellent at countering the mimes. One may not like her, but you have to respect her, and she'll destroy the nonsense the mime-troupe trot out.

Luxembourg is a shining example of putting even the GDP per debt comparison in perspective.

25-01-2018

According to a study by the World Economic Forum (WEF), the Grand Duchy is one of the industrialised countries that offer the best living conditions. In the annual Inclusive Development Index for 2018, the Grand Duchy has moved into third place, out of the total of 103 countries included in the study. Among the countries with an advanced economy, the Grand Duchy is only beaten by Norway and Iceland; it is ahead of the G7 countries (Germany (12th place), Canada (17th place), France (18th place), Great Britain (21st place), USA (23rd place), Japan (24th place) and Italy (27th place).

http://www.inspiringluxembourg.public.lu/en/actualites/articles/2018/01/25-qualite-vie/index.html

Now look at the debt to GDP ratios of Luxembourg from the chart I posted prior:

Debt per Capita
USD 6,733,000

% of GDP
6,731

The Cons haven't a clue of what they talk about. It's like hiring bus-drivers for your kids' school bus based on how they swear at other drivers and call them names, with no consideration given to actual driving skills or a pristine driving record. Some Conservatives have been excellent stewards of politics and economics. It's certainly not the case with Ford and Co.

Ford and Allen (the Con-edy Duo) remind me of Planet of the Apes in a number of ways, not least:

Urko: Ahh yes. I seem to remember hearing something vaguely about that; *Brain washing*. Isn't that where you take the brain out of the skull and wash it with cool water?

Wanda: No, no. You don't take the brain out of the skull.

Urko: You don't - Well how can you wash the brain if you don't take it out of the skull?

Oh those aching, scraped knuckles...

 

[steveintoronto]

And Ontario is one of the largest sub-sovereign economies on earth.

Pretty much the equivalent of Sweden, albeit Sweden is way ahead in the principles of governing.

"Freedom of Information", in effect, has existed in Sweden (and other Nordics) for many centuries. Some forms of open government have existed for there since the 800s.

Sweden’s Freedom of the Press Act 1766 (Act) is widely considered the oldest piece of freedom of information legislation in the world. The current version of the Act is also one of four fundamental laws which make up country’s written constitution, others being The Instrument of Government, The Act of Succession and The Fundamental Law on Freedom of Expression.

Since 1766 the Act has been thoroughly renewed, with latest additions come into operation in 2003. The initial purpose of the Act was to abolish the political censorship of public documents and to ensure the right for everyone to publish written documents. Right of access to public documents was also listed in the first versions of the Act.

http://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/research/foi/countries/sweden

And lo and behold, from the list I posted prior:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

Sweden's debt is roughly twice both figures of quantifying the national debt load. And their standard of living is considerably higher. Doug Ford don't drive no Volvo...

How’s Life?
Sweden performs very well in many measures of well-being relative to most other countries in the Better Life Index. Sweden ranks above the average in all dimensions: environmental quality, civic engagement, education and skills, work-life balance, health status, subjective well-being, income and wealth, jobs and earnings, housing, personal safety, and social connections. These rankings are based on available selected data.

Money, while it cannot buy happiness, is an important means to achieving higher living standards. In Sweden, the average household net-adjusted disposable income per capita is USD 30 553 a year, broadly in line with the OECD average of USD 30 563 a year. There is a considerable gap between the richest and poorest – the top 20% of the population earn four times as much as the bottom 20%.

In terms of employment, 76% of people aged 15 to 64 in Sweden have a paid job, above the OECD employment average of 67%. Some 78% of men are in paid work, compared with 75% of women. In Sweden, only 1% of employees work very long hours, one of the lowest rates in the OECD where the average is 13%. Nearly 2% of men work very long hours, compared with almost no women.

Good education and skills are important requisites for finding a job. In Sweden, 83% of adults aged 25-64 have completed upper secondary education, higher than the OECD average of 74%. This is truer of women than men, as 82% of men have successfully completed high-school compared with 84% of women. In terms of the quality of the educational system, the average student scored 496 in reading literacy, maths and science in the OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), above the OECD average of 486. On average in Sweden, girls outperformed boys by 16 points, much more than the average OECD gap of 2 points.

In terms of health, life expectancy at birth in Sweden is 82 years, two years higher than the OECD average of 80 years. Life expectancy for women is 84 years, compared with 80 for men. The level of atmospheric PM2.5 – tiny air pollutant particles small enough to enter and cause damage to the lungs – is 6.2 micrograms per cubic meter, considerably lower than the OECD average of 13.9 micrograms per cubic meter. Sweden also does well in terms of water quality, as 95% of people say they are satisfied with the quality of their water, compared with an OECD average of 81%.

Concerning the public sphere, there is a strong sense of community and high levels of civic participation in Sweden, where 92% of people believe that they know someone they could rely on in time of need, more than the OECD average of 89%. Voter turnout, a measure of citizens' participation in the political process, was 86% during recent elections, higher than the OECD average of 69%. Voter turnout for the top 20% of the population is an estimated 90% and for the bottom 20% it is an estimated 84%, slightly higher than the OECD average gap of 13 percentage points, and suggests there is broad social inclusion in Sweden's democratic institutions.

In general, Swedes are more satisfied with their lives than the OECD average. When asked to rate their general satisfaction with life on a scale from 0 to 10, Swedes gave it a 7.3 grade on average, higher than the OECD average of 6.5.

For more information on estimates and years of reference, see FAQ section and BLI database.
www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/sweden/

Can't be like them, nosirreee...them's is puftas

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Pretty much the equivalent of Sweden, albeit Sweden is way ahead in the principles of governing.

"Freedom of Information", in effect, has existed in Sweden (and other Nordics) for many centuries. Some forms of open government have existed for there since the 800s.

http://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/research/foi/countries/sweden

And lo and behold, from the list I posted prior:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

Sweden's debt is roughly twice both figures of quantifying the national debt load. And their standard of living is considerably higher. Doug Ford don't drive no Volvo...


Can't be like them, nosirreee...them's is puftas

Old saying (paraphrased) - “Canada want to be like Sweden, without a Swedish level of taxation”

AoD

 

[Juan_Lennon416]

We've just had an excellent demonstration in this forum of how some, many, if not most of the Ford drive-shafts grind their gears, and spline their spleens thinking noise is the key to forward propulsion. Fortunately, Wynne is excellent at countering the mimes. One may not like her, but you have to respect her, and she'll destroy the nonsense the mime-troupe trot out

Don't jump to conclusions. Wynne might be able to counter the mimes but it may not be enough this time around.

 

[steveintoronto]

Old saying (paraphrased) - “Canada want to be like Sweden, without a Swedish level of taxation”

AoD

This is an important point that will come up, and one I didn't raise prior as I'm worried about the thrust I was making being lost in the other dimensions to this. Your post tells me the first dimension of it is being understood. (Posting in forums in quick order always lends itself to being understood by the author, but missed by the intended target, albeit I got a lot of thumbs up for my first retort by posting the chart).

I was careful to use right-up-to-date sources, because *Sweden has moved to the Right* (in relative terms) and taxes have been reduced! Which brings us to the second point that *reactionary* Cons will have you believe: Any discussion on the Nordics is with "Lefties". Quite the contrary, *informed* Conservatives can actually use the Nordics (and Sweden is a good example) of how a move to the Right (in the generally understood terms of reference) can be gentle and effective if done by academics as opposed to troglodytes. Since my first Google hit is Denmark (land of those Leftie cyclists, animal rightist, and social revolutionaries, and Parliament forming historics), it also makes the point:

2 JULY 2015
Why even Scandinavia is moving to the right


The fall of Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt and Scandinavia’s move to the right.

Denmark’s shift to the right and the squeezing of its establishment are closely linked phenomena. They explain how the DPP managed to colonise ground on both sides of the electoral landscape. It has been nibbling the support of right-wing parties for over a decade by forcing immigration into the mainstream political debate. And yet, focusing on immigration alone, it struggled to get much more than 13 per cent of the vote. What made its campaign different this time was that it managed to reinvent itself as a party of the left – or the “left behind”.

The DPP performed particularly well in rural Jutland, the peninsula that makes up most of Denmark’s land mass, which suffers from lower growth rates than metropolitan areas. As one Danish politician explained to me, “The core dividing line in this election was between Jutland and Copenhagen.” The DPP has set itself up in opposition to the entire metropolitan political elite and won record levels of support.


As well as stealing votes from the centre right, the DPP tacked left by opposing the centre-left government’s plan to cut social benefits and pensions, a campaign based on “maintaining the Denmark you know”. It argued that the government should stop spending money on migrants and foreign aid, and should invest instead in social benefits for Danes. By linking migration to the future of the Scandinavian welfare state, the DPP managed to win support without sounding hysterical about immigration. In the televised debates, it was the two mainstream candidates – Venstre’s Lars Løkke Rasmussen and the Social Democrats’ Thorning-Schmidt – who were toughest on migrants.

Many Social Democrats, including a former minister who asked to remain anonymous, argue that the DPP was able to reinvent itself because their party had lost credibility by cutting taxes and consenting to austerity. The Social Democrats were caught in a pincer movement of their own making, hoping to win votes from Venstre by adopting a conservative economic platform and from the DPP by focusing on immigration. In the process, they lost their identity, leaving the door open for the DPP to grab a clutch of left-leaning voters.

The problem for Thorning-Schmidt was that although her party managed to defy expectations and top the poll with an impressive 26 per cent, the vote share of her putative coalition partners the Social Liberals and the Socialist People’s Party collapsed to under 5 per cent. Her campaign was successful for the Social Democrats but it destroyed support for her allies. It was a classic pyrrhic victory. Sweden is now the only country in Scandinavia that still has a centre-left government, contrary to the general view of the region. [...continues at length...]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/why-even-scandinavia-moving-right

Sweden has done similar, slashing taxes to much closer to the EU norm. I was waiting for our erstwhile favourite "hoity toity" as one poster called him/her (the grammar was full of crushed and broken flowers) to rise to the challenge of the list I posted, but alas, said person must have been smart enough to realize they were in too deep.

I'm not posting this to 'be clever'. It's to encourage the dialog that must occur unless this Province is to slip into the darkness of yesterday (The Big Blue Machine excepted, I mean the darkness that followed in the next Con Regime).

This isn't really "Left vs Right" at all. It's the Enlightened vs. the Luddites. For as much as I'm very uncomfortable with Wynne (and even more with the company she keeps), Ontario is facing jumping out of the pot and into the fire with the tatty-talk of the imbecile Ford. Wynne is excellent in countering such mindlessness.

But are Ontarians listening? It's got to be a *groundswell* that debunks the hysterics, and that's us.

Btw folks: Sweden is roughly equal to Ontario's population. Denmark is just under half of it, and just one House to their Parliament (no Upper Chamber). What you elect is what you get, just like our provincial legislatures.

Here's the 'part of the story' that makes Alvin's point, but of course, things are often more complex than simple platitudes: (the story has progressed even further than from the date of the following. events follow a similar pattern to Ontario's, but of a different phase)

After 8 years of tax cuts and pro-market reforms, Sweden's left projected to make comeback
Published September 12, 2014

STOCKHOLM – Gone are the days when Sweden was the undisputed world champion of high taxes.

"We are not even top three anymore," boasts Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, reflecting on the tax cuts that have defined his eight-year rule — the longest ever for a conservative leader in Sweden.

Polls before a parliamentary election on Sunday show voters could shift back to the left amid worries that Reinfeldt's smaller-government policies have undermined Sweden's famed welfare model.

Many Swedes say they no longer recognize the country once considered the quintessential welfare state — an almost classless society where high taxes supported a generous social safety net.

Instead, Sweden now has become an inspiring example to conservative leaders like British Prime Minister David Cameron, who is a friend of Reinfeldt.

"They have sold out our country," said Jens Evaldsson, a 39-year-old Stockholm artist with a fluffy beard and a firm dislike of Reinfeldt's government. "The rich are getting richer and things are getting worse for the poor."

The pro-market reforms didn't start with Reinfeldt, 49, but have accelerated during his two terms in office.

Since it took power in 2006, his center-right coalition government has cut income and corporate taxes, abolished a tax on wealth, trimmed welfare benefits, eased labor laws and privatized state-owned companies, including the maker of Absolut vodka.

Meanwhile, the gap between rich and poor has grown faster in Sweden than in most developed countries, though it remains among the world's most egalitarian, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Sweden's tax-to-gross domestic product ratio is now the fifth highest in the developed world at 44 percent, down from 48 percent (second-highest after Denmark) when Reinfeldt took office, according to the OECD.

Swedes continue to enjoy free education, heavily subsidized health care and generous welfare benefits, including 16 months of paid parental leave.

But the government's influence on people's lives has decreased significantly. More private actors run publicly funded schools and hospitals. The government still controls liquor stores, but has ended its monopoly on pharmacies.

"All the kinds of choices that I was not given when I was young, or my parents, are now there," Reinfeldt told a small group of reporters last week at the government headquarters in Stockholm. "You can now choose your kindergarten, your school, your health care, your elderly care."

The problem for Reinfeldt is a lot of Swedes don't seem to like all that choice.

Even though his government has won praise internationally for keeping Sweden's economy intact during Europe's financial turmoil, at home the perception has taken root that he's selling out the welfare system to greedy capitalists. [...]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/0...et-reforms-sweden-left-projected-to-make.html

This discussion is only just starting (again) in Ontario. Not to obscure the point too soon, but I see the NDP playing a much more important role now in propping up the Libs in a minority win...that discussion later.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Old saying (paraphrased) - “Canada want to be like Sweden, without a Swedish level of taxation”

AoD

and even more to that point: Alberta wants to be like Sweden, without a Swedish level of taxation. Alberta is the king solo of this particular mathematical voodoo.

 

[Hugh Jass]

Oddly, I immediately thought when Ford won that perhaps his running against Wynne will have the same outcome that Trump did in the States?
I feel Trump may have won as a backlash vote to the politically correct left?

Also- not really related but has anyone had the opportunity to read up on what became of gender equality in Scandinavian countries who apparently have had one of the most gender equal societies in the world? It seems in short it hasn't resulted in females moving into technology or higher positions as one may assume.

 

[steveintoronto]

Oddly, I immediately thought when Ford won that perhaps his running against Wynne will have the same outcome that Trump did in the States?
I feel Trump may have won as a backlash vote to the politically correct left?

Also- not really related but has anyone had the opportunity to read up on what became of gender equality in Scandinavian countries who apparently have had one of the most gender equal societies in the world? It seems in short it hasn't resulted in females moving into technology or higher positions as one may assume.

Hugh (lol, Seinfeld would avoid the last name too)...the 'can quota imposition correct societal abberhations' argument actually doesn't belong, albeit it's a much more nuanced one than many would think (I'm with Peterson on this, but let's not get into it). In terms of *equal opportunity* (whether that has the intended effect or not) Sweden is way ahead of most any other nation save other Nordics.

There are lessons to be learned, from many angles, including the Law of Unintended Consequences, but that muddies the necessary debate on where the Luddites would take us in Ontario.

For the purpose of reference, here's the equality list as per my claim: (but let's not discuss it here save for reference in other points)

Sweden has been named the world’s fourth most gender equal country in a study by the prestigious World Economic Forum.
The Nordic nations dominated the Swiss nonprofit foundation’s 2016 Global Gender Gap Report, with Iceland performing best, followed by Finland, Norway and then Sweden.

Sweden has closed 81 percent of its overall gender gap according to the ranking of 144 countries, which attempts to measure the relative gaps between women and men across the four key areas of health, education, economy and politics.

“For the first time this year Sweden has reached parity in primary education and it continues to be among the top countries for parity among university graduates,” World Economic Forum spokesperson Alexandra May told The Local.

“Parity between men and women in Sweden is among the best in the world,” she added.

This is the eighth year in a row that Sweden has placed fourth in the ranking, which it once topped back in 2006. The main reason its failure to retake top spot is a greater rate of improvement in other Nordic nations, the World Economic Forum explained, while progress in the country's political sphere has also stalled. [...]

https://www.thelocal.se/20161026/swedes-named-fourth-most-gender-equal-in-the-world

 

[Jasmine18]

The issue of whether the liberals have the largest sub soverign debt or not is pointless.

This election will not be based on facts but on narratives and the sense is the liberals have taken a lot of debt and have increased taxes and there is not that much to show for it.

I am not debating if that narrative is true but I think that is why a lot of people are like Wynne even with popular policies.

 

[SunriseChampion]

The issue of whether the liberals have the largest sub soverign debt or not is pointless.

What? Liberals or liberals? Not the same thing. Also, the party's debt can't be that big. There is a separation between the party of the government and the jurisdiction being governed.
As for liberals, yeah, I'm sure a lot of them carry quite substantial amounts of debt.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

and even more to that point: Alberta wants to be like Sweden, without a Swedish level of taxation. Alberta is the king solo of this particular mathematical voodoo.

Well, Alberta wanted to be Norway, except it spent all the oil money keeping the population from taxation instead of setting up a sovereign wealth fund with something to show for it. I mean, Norway also has Statoil (literally State Oil); Alberta has...?

AoD