Sorry that I couldn't find the original quote about the Keyes constant and that I'm a little late regarding polling but I thought I could buoy some spirits with math!
I believe this was the original, with a reply.
Doomsday scenario
It's interesting (and somewhat predictable) that Rob Ford is polling on or near the Alan Keyes constant (27%). However, Ford's future poll numbers have a hard ceiling on them due to a population that understands Ford is not only an extremely distasteful individual but an extremely ineffectual politician. Conversely, it's going to be nearly impossible for his numbers to dip below the Keyes constant. Once Ford's handlers accept this, they'll realize that the easiest way for him to win this election is for him to boost Stintz' and Soknacki's numbers at the expense of Chow and Tory. There's not a lot of upside in Ford spending much more time and money on his own campaign, when the biggest bang for the buck is getting his staff and volunteers to boost Stintz and Soknacki.
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Let’s consider the Keyes Constant. 27% of the population is batshit crazy or wants to vandalize CH with more Ford. Note that RoFo has exactly 27% in the Forum poll reported in the star. Selah.
Now, has the Ford campaign absorbed all the crazy in Toronto? If so, there’s no getting more of the Keyes Constant folks out of the other campaigns to come over to Ford. They’re already there.
So how to drain the other candidates support down to less than batshit crazy 27%?
How about the “thinking man/woman”? How many of that group (sorry, elite) now support Chow or Tory? How many might be enticed over to the real mayor for the thinking man/woman: Dave Soks? Many, perhaps, but some thinkers are thinking about voting strategically, dontcha think?
Similarly, how many Tory or Chow voters could be brought over to Stintz? If Karen Stintz is as dumb as she sounds, I’m not sure what she’s got to offer. Right-wing women voters who ride the TTC a lot? I’m lost there.
Conversely, if Stintz quit and supported Ford, how many of her supporters would follow? Even if she threw in a free Metropass, I can’t see women who support Stintz going over to Ford. YMMV.
Still, I think this "drain-not-boost" strategy may have legs. Anybody else got 2 cents?
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