[robmausser]

Man, politics can be so infuriating sometimes.

I've been keeping up with the latest studies and releases from Metrolinx, and they are saying that Smarttrack now won't offer very much relief to the Yonge line. I understand that the DRL subway is needed eventually but I found this hard to believe so I looked into it.

Apparently they are saying it won't offer relief because it won't have total TTC fare integration and it will only run once every half an hour, because while they are planning to use the same RER trains to operate Smarttrack, they don't want their RER service stopping at the planned stations that are being built for Smarttrack. So there will be the same trains but two levels of service: RER and Smarttrack.

I mean talk about trying to kill something purposely. Let's completely ignore this idea and not look at possibly more tracks on these lines to handle more trains, ATC with new signalling systems, nope it can't be done. Ignore the fact that they trains in Australia run every 90 seconds in some places. Can't be done here.

You want more tracks and signals and fare integration with TTC? We can't afford that! Nope, lets build a $20 billion subway from downtown to Don Mills on the Sheppard line, to be fully complete in 2050. (These are my own estimations of how much/long it would take, based on the cost and time of the first portion of the DRL, however Metrolinx is floating this idea in their study)

 

[mdrejhon]

Apparently they are saying it won't offer relief because it won't have total TTC fare integration and it will only run once every half an hour, because while they are planning to use the same RER trains to operate Smarttrack, they don't want their RER service stopping at the planned stations that are being built for Smarttrack. So there will be the same trains but two levels of service: RER and Smarttrack.

I interpret it differently.

I correctly predicted Metrolinx would consider spurring every alternate GO RER train down the two routes (Either as a 7.5min/15min or a 15min/30min). So the core segment is 15 minute service, but each spur would be every 30 minutes. This is how Paris' RER does it, Australia's commuter trains, as well as Calgary's C-Train. It's multiple train routes that overlap to frequent service in the core segment, but diverges when outside the core segment.

 

[robmausser]

I interpret it differently.

I correctly predicted Metrolinx would consider spurring every alternate GO RER train down the two routes (Either as a 7.5min/15min or a 15min/30min). So the core segment is 15 minute service, but each spur would be every 30 minutes. This is how Paris' RER does it, Australia's commuter trains, as well as Calgary's C-Train. It's multiple train routes that overlap to frequent service in the core segment, but diverges when outside the core segment.

Nothing to interperate. They stated it quite literally it will run every half an hour. Not because it can't be run any more frequently, but because Metrolinx is incompetent and doesn't understand this concept. GO trains that service downtown? No no, we are here for the 905.

http://stevemunro.ca/2015/06/25/the-vanishing-relevance-of-smarttrack/

 

[junctionist]

No matter how they set up the express rail services, the report seems reasonable when it says that those services won't offer much relief for the Yonge line's congestion problems. Most of the SmartTrack route is far from Yonge Street.

 

[ssiguy2]

How can they possibly make projections on a relief line when they have no clue about what RER and/or SmartTrack will offer?

ST is suppose to run every 10 minutes in rush hour possibly higher according to Tory and suppose to have complete TTC fare integration. This report makes it sound like it will be GO fares and at every 30 minutes. It seems to me the authors of this report seem to be going out of their way to cook the books in favour of a DRL.

The DRL won't happen within the next 20 years, nor should it. It serves relatively few people and relatively few destinations but comes with a staggering price tag. That $8 billion would build another 100 km of surface subway serving the entire GTA area and could be built in a fraction of the time and would still serve the downtown area including the western portion with service up to every 3 minutes if they wanted.

Until they get a complete ST/RER system up and running of at least 300km, they should wait to make an informed decision and not one based on pure speculation. The $8 billion spent on this one little line is $8 billion that won't be spent on new rail cars, electrification of GO's 450km or network, huge ST system, and/or subway/station improvements.

When determining whether funds should be used on a certain project you should not just include benefits of that project but loses from other projects that won't be built due to all the money going into that line.

 

[nfitz]

How can they possibly make projections on a relief line when they have no clue about what RER and/or SmartTrack will offer?

ST is suppose to run every 10 minutes in rush hour possibly higher according to Tory and suppose to have complete TTC fare integration. This report makes it sound like it will be GO fares and at every 30 minutes. It seems to me the authors of this report seem to be going out of their way to cook the books in favour of a DRL.

They assumed in the short to medium base case that there'd be a train every 15 minutes (with both RER and SmartTrack running every 30 minutes). This did move 4,200 people to RER. It was when they did the long-term case and made the trains every 5 to 10 minutes that they only added another 600 riders.

Look at the presentation again. It requires both 15-minute RER AND the DRL in the long-term.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Mr. Tory was apparently quite upset with the findings of YNRS.

I don't think there was any political meddling by Metrolinx. Remember that the LPO was very much involved in the ST concept back in the campaign. It just happens that ST has poor performance as a Yonge reliefine.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

How can they possibly make projections on a relief line when they have no clue about what RER and/or SmartTrack will offer?

ST is suppose to run every 10 minutes in rush hour possibly higher according to Tory and suppose to have complete TTC fare integration. This report makes it sound like it will be GO fares and at every 30 minutes. It seems to me the authors of this report seem to be going out of their way to cook the books in favour of a DRL.

The DRL won't happen within the next 20 years, nor should it. It serves relatively few people and relatively few destinations but comes with a staggering price tag. That $8 billion would build another 100 km of surface subway serving the entire GTA area and could be built in a fraction of the time and would still serve the downtown area including the western portion with service up to every 3 minutes if they wanted.

Until they get a complete ST/RER system up and running of at least 300km, they should wait to make an informed decision and not one based on pure speculation. The $8 billion spent on this one little line is $8 billion that won't be spent on new rail cars, electrification of GO's 450km or network, huge ST system, and/or subway/station improvements.

When determining whether funds should be used on a certain project you should not just include benefits of that project but loses from other projects that won't be built due to all the money going into that line.

If we went this route, then we will have to spend >$1Billion on rebuilding Yonge-Bloor station.

 

[crs1026]

Nothing to interperate. They stated it quite literally it will run every half an hour. Not because it can't be run any more frequently, but because Metrolinx is incompetent and doesn't understand this concept. GO trains that service downtown? No no, we are here for the 905.

http://stevemunro.ca/2015/06/25/the-vanishing-relevance-of-smarttrack/

Well, what they gave Steve Munro is a bit different than what they are promising elsewhere

http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/rer/rer_stouffville.aspx

Putting aside that a 20-minute schedule at the outer end doesn't mesh with a 15-minute schedule closer in, it would appear from the RER information that EVERY one of the 15-min headway trains on the RER line through Scarboro will be a RER train.

I suspect there are left hands and right hands at work and as usual, they aren't on the same page. I'm more inclined to view the screw-up view of history than wondering if there is a conspiracy to write ST off the page. But, as Steve points out, the ST concept may not be the Relief Line's silver bullet after all.

- Paul

 

[nfitz]

Putting aside that a 20-minute schedule at the outer end doesn't mesh with a 15-minute schedule closer in, it would appear from the RER information that EVERY one of the 15-min headway trains on the RER line through Scarboro will be a RER train.

Does it matter, given that when they looked at the option of much more frequent RER service, it made almost no difference to the travel patterns?

 

[crs1026]

Does it matter, given that when they looked at the option of much more frequent RER service, it made almost no difference to the travel patterns?

It doesn't matter in terms of the demand study, no. It's just not credible operationally. Which makes one wonder how superficial the whole thing is so far.

- Paul

 

[nfitz]

It doesn't matter in terms of the demand study, no. It's just not credible operationally. Which makes one wonder how superficial the whole thing is so far.

When testing a model to see what happens, one doesn't worry if what one is testing it with is credible or not ... that's not the point. It clearly demonstrated that the quanity of riders diverted to the Stouffville corridor was finite with a very low sensitivity to frequency.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

You can always count on people to claim the studies were fudged when they don't end up with the desired result.

 

[crs1026]

When testing a model to see what happens, one doesn't worry if what one is testing it with is credible or not ... that's not the point. It clearly demonstrated that the quanity of riders diverted to the Stouffville corridor was finite with a very low sensitivity to frequency.

Yes. I was not disputing the study, Models are supposed to provide views of a range of scenarios. If the model is robust, you can run as many scenarios as the thinkers can generate.

I was observing on how the other side of ML is making definitive public pronouncements of what the plan will be... and how it is neither the current base case described by the planners as quoted by Mr Munro , nor operationally feasible, nor do they incorporate the Tory view of ST. If you don't know where you are going, even the best model won't help.

- Paul

 

[nfitz]

Given the results all seem very intuitive, and are pushing the DRL more so than any agency seems to be doing these days, one would assume that it's all on the up and up.