Jasmine18
Senior Member
wait if your murder someone you have a 1 in 3 chance of getting away with it
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Northern Light
Superstar
Source?
Jasmine18
Senior Member
your state shows 66% clearance rate for murders
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Northern Light
Superstar
Ah, then quote the post next time! LOL
I would offer that I think that rate will likely improve over time.
Homicide cases don't close as unsolved for a very long time.
That said, we have seen a decline in clearance rate in recent years, its true.
This graphic shows the homicide clearance rate of major Canadian cities, over the period 2000-2015
You may note Vancovuer is lowest at 61%, Toronto is 2nd best at 70%, while Calgary cleared almost 80%
***
For the sake of interest, below is are the NYPD clearance rates for Q3 2019, and Q42019.
Interesting. Note that Homicide clearance in Q3 was a mere 54%, but shot up to over 86% the next quarter.
For an average of 70% over the 2 quarters.
| Clearance Report - Percentages | ||||||
| Uniform Crime Reporting Categories | ||||||
| 3rd Quarter - CY 2019 | ||||||
| Bronx | Brooklyn | Manhattan | Queens | Staten Island | Citywide | |
| Murder | 90.3% | 37.5% | 38.5% | 36.0% | 0.0% | 52.9% |
| Forcible Rape | 66.7% | 37.6% | 29.3% | 43.8% | 45.5% | 43.5% |
| Expanded Rape | 32.6% | 30.8% | 29.9% | 34.7% | 25.0% | 31.7% |
| Robbery | 48.6% | 49.4% | 53.5% | 46.7% | 54.1% | 49.7% |
| Aggravated Assault | 66.6% | 65.0% | 64.2% | 74.4% | 77.6% | 67.4% |
| Burglary | 31.2% | 30.4% | 52.6% | 29.5% | 31.0% | 35.3% |
| Larceny Theft | 19.0% | 17.4% | 23.3% | 21.0% | 29.3% | 20.7% |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 15.4% | 23.1% | 17.9% | 23.0% | 26.7% | 20.6% |
| Total | 35.1% | 31.1% | 31.4% | 35.0% | 39.8% | 33.0% |
| Clearance Report - Percentages | ||||||
| Uniform Crime Reporting Categories | ||||||
| 4th Quarter 2019 | ||||||
| Bronx | Brooklyn | Manhattan | Queens | Staten Island | Citywide | |
| Murder | 116.5% | 68.0% | 86.5% | 73.9% | 92.3% | 86.2% |
| Forcible Rape | 58.6% | 40.6% | 28.1% | 57.4% | 66.7% | 46.8% |
| Expanded Rape | 54.9% | 36.0% | 22.6% | 40.7% | 10.5% | 37.7% |
| Robbery | 46.0% | 45.6% | 50.4% | 45.5% | 65.2% | 47.2% |
| Aggravated Assault | 68.6% | 66.5% | 66.6% | 74.3% | 76.1% | 69.0% |
| Burglary | 28.7% | 31.6% | 47.5% | 24.1% | 36.9% | 33.2% |
| Larceny Theft | 19.0% | 16.9% | 23.5% | 18.7% | 26.7% | 20.2% |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 11.3% | 17.3% | 21.4% | 20.8% | 28.0% | 17.6% |
| Total | 34.9% | 30.7% | 31.6% | 32.5% | 39.2% | 32.4% |
Last edited:
lenaitch
Senior Member
Homicide investigations can be lengthy and the time between initial report and clearance can often spill from one reporting period to the other.. Clearance fluctuation, particularly in urban areas, can often be a result of serial/gang activity; clearing one can end up clearing several. One of the bigger problems facing TPS investigators in clearing homicides, which may be reflected in other cities as well, in addition to the traditional 'code of silence' among gang members, is a reluctance of community witnesses to get involved. Some neighbourhoods have a high fear level of retribution from local gangs. Having said that, I don't know the breakdown of 'gang related' homicide in the city.
Jasmine18
Senior Member
From what i see in america its mostly murders of young black men who are from gangs that mostly go unresolved.
Northern Light
Superstar
This seems to be our resident violent crime thread for the moment.
So, just a comparative update on homicide totals looking at other large North American Cities.
Homicide Total followed by rate per 100,000 people underneath (All stats. are year to date in 2020)
Chicago
558 homicides
20.66 rate per 100,000
NYC
305
3.7 rate per 100,000
Los Angeles
208
5.2 rate per 100,000
Philadelphia
319
5.6 rate per 100,000
Montreal
15
0.83 per 100,000
Vancouver
11
1.57 per 100,000
Winnipeg
31
4.13 per 100,000
Toronto
52
1.73
So, just a comparative update on homicide totals looking at other large North American Cities.
Homicide Total followed by rate per 100,000 people underneath (All stats. are year to date in 2020)
Chicago
558 homicides
20.66 rate per 100,000
NYC
305
3.7 rate per 100,000
Los Angeles
208
5.2 rate per 100,000
Philadelphia
319
5.6 rate per 100,000
Montreal
15
0.83 per 100,000
Vancouver
11
1.57 per 100,000
Winnipeg
31
4.13 per 100,000
Toronto
52
1.73
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Good TPS stats here https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJr...jNDMtNDc0Yy04ZmI0LTBmNDA5NWFlOGQ1ZCIsImMiOjN9
Even with shootings increasing and myself residing close to Regent Park I don't fear gun violence. What I would like is more detailed stats about how often people not "known to police" are killed in non-suicide shootings. That stat would tell law abiding Torontonians if they really need fear gun violence.
Even with shootings increasing and myself residing close to Regent Park I don't fear gun violence. What I would like is more detailed stats about how often people not "known to police" are killed in non-suicide shootings. That stat would tell law abiding Torontonians if they really need fear gun violence.
afransen
Senior Member
^Same would probably put Chicago's murder rate in perspective as well. Not to say that those lives don't matter, just helps to calibrate perception of danger given you don't engage in criminal activity.
Towered
Senior Member
Live by the sword, die by the sword.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
That's my thinking. How many regular, law abiding folks get shot in this city. I imagine it's well under 10pct of homicides.
Northern Light
Superstar
At the level of murders being seen in cities like Chicago, KC, STL etc. there is material danger to innocents; and the problem would require addressing regardless.
In Chicago you see a difference by area, as you might expect.
Chicago's more affluent north end still has violence somewhat higher than typical for Toronto, but far less than overall City stats would suggest.
The Loop area is more dangerous than DT Toronto, but again, reasonably safe at most hours.
But Chicago's south side and west sides, while varying street to street over a large area are at a level of dangerousness that I certainly could not abide.
I would hasten to add the problems there are in many ways the result of a more affluent, predominantly white community in Chicago collectively shrugging with 'not my problem', 'not a danger to me'. etc.
Of course I'm grossly over simplifying a complex problem; but with a high degree of substance in that generalization.
I should add we've had innocent folks shot in Toronto too.
Louise Russo ended up in a wheelchair.
/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/news/insight/2011/01/29/behind_the_scenes_in_louise_russo_sandwich_shop_shooting_deal/louiserusso.jpeg)
Behind the scenes in Louise Russo sandwich shop shooting deal
Underworld figures delivered $2 million as restitution to Louise Russo, who was shot and paralyzed in a botched hit. The Star looks behind the scenes ...
Jane Creba ended up dead.
afransen
Senior Member
Of course, that's why the stats for 'non-known to police' victims would not be zero. The chance of being caught in cross-fire is real and why you would expect to see higher rates in Chicago.
Fresco
Active Member
Its just a matter of time until we have another Jane Creba situation.
I can see that coming from a mile away
I can see that coming from a mile away
Jasmine18
Senior Member
Um my biggest critique around current events is that many people discount gang violence as not important.
In the 100s of young black men are being shot and killed and that has a huge negative effect on the community.
Thank you
In the 100s of young black men are being shot and killed and that has a huge negative effect on the community.
Thank you