Can people stop repeating "17km/hr"? That's not what the Sheppard bus runs at. 17.5km/hr is just the currently scheduled round trip time, from departing Don Mills to departing Don Mills, via Meadowvale, during the pm rush. That's not the real speed on any stretch, or at any time, or of the 190 on any stretch or at any time. It includes 2 minutes of terminal time (other routes/times have zero terminal time, while some have 5 or more minutes of it). Midday speeds are 21.7km/hr, early evening is 21.3, morning is 19.4 (and it's 19.4 with 5 minutes of terminal time, meaning it'd be 20.6 with zero). Then there's Saturday and Sunday. If the real travel speed between Don Mills and, say, Markham works out to 15km/hr at 5pm, that means the rest of the route is already running over 20km/hr.
What does an LRT figure of 22-23km/hr include? A full round trip including the two terminal turnovers? How much time waiting at the terminal? How much faster in the off-peak or how much slower during the peak? The simple reality is that most people who ride the 85/190 do not do so at 5pm going eastbound; that's just the largest single blob, though we do need to build transit for these peak blobs. Even if "22-23km/hr" is the actual travelling speed, that is actually *slower* for some riders. What if those 2 terminal minutes were removed? What if a few queue jumps were added, each saving even a few seconds? What if an exit tunnel from Don Mills station to the eastbound lanes of Sheppard was built? The bus routinely sits for a whole minute waiting to turn left onto Sheppard. What if Rocket service was added east of Kennedy? We already know it saves minutes over the 85 even over only a 5km stretch. What if fare collection was changed so that you didn't have 10 students in a row fishing for their student cards or 10 people fishing for change and asking for transfers? 30s, 30s, 1m, 2m, 30s, 1m, 30s, 3m...each improvement is minor unless you add them up. The LRT's 22-23km/hr figure already includes features like signal priority or POP. It's not rapid transit if regular bus service is more rapid even after the LRT line is modelled with advantages and optimism.
We're spending $1.2 billion and getting no speed out of the deal. If people think ridership will double just because of rail bias, they are out to lunch. It won't happen. There's absolutely no question that buses can handle demand for the foreseeable future and that buses can be improved substantially. Extend the stubway not now, but in the future when circumstances change. Why the rush to 'finish' the transit map with LRT lines?
The language used in the Sheppard LRT EA is certainly bizarre, with phrases like "if a subway were constructed" and "if the faster speed of a subway or elevated transit line is used in the modelling." We are not 100% sure that the projections are for a transferless subway extension, just something that moves at the speed of a subway. If the ridership model they used was input with an LRT speed of 100km/hr, would the projections have said 50,000 riders per hour? If the LRT was modelled at 21-22km/hr instead of 22-23km/hr, would 3000 become 2700? This modelling sounds reasonable on paper when talking about cumulative ridership, but individual people do not base their decision to ride or not ride based on a 1km/hr difference or a time savings of 1 or 2 minutes...they need to be guaranteed a minimum improvement that exceeds headways, and that won't happen with the LRT, even in places (near Victoria Park) where the 85/190 buses do get clogged.
If anyone says ridership on the 85 and the 190 will double on their own, it's to justify the LRT. That will obviously not happen in reality...not a chance. The population along the overall corridor is rising slightly, but won't come anywhere close to doubling in the next few decades, and should actually drop somewhat in Malvern. Even if total ridership explodes, the effect of improvements to routes like the Stouffville GO line, the effect of the SRT extension, etc., could eat up peak loads. So if population won't do it, and drivers won't switch, and people from other routes won't switch, and some of Sheppard's current riders will switch to other lines, and buses can be made faster, why do we need to spend $1.2B here? Why spend a fortune on bike lanes and landscaping when we could be using transit funding to actually fund transit?