[heightjunkie]

Calgary is still riding boomtown demographics. The large number of 20 and 30 somethings who arrived during the boom are having kids. I suspect population growth will slow dramatically if the downturn continues.

While I don't disagree that there still is some leftover "boom-juice" driving our population growth, I agree with some of the other posters that draw from international migration and urbanization trends. It doesn't seem like positive job growth is the central factor to this region's population growth anymore, rather it has become one of a group of 3-5 factors including affordability and quality of life that have continued to drive our region's strong growth relative to peers. Those factors recently seem to be improving too: housing price is going down right now in Alberta, quality of life seems to still be tops in Alberta, international migration is still publicly accepted by and large here (unlike Quebec or even parts of Ontario), and our spirits seem to be relatively high.

Regarding economic growth, our economy is continuing to decouple (albeit slowly) from the O & G sector. A lot of people are acting like o & G are a thing of the past too- and sure, peak oil prices are likely not going to be seen again. But there are geopolitical influences that could change that scenario pretty rapidly: I would never like to see it, but a global proxy war staked primarily between SA and Iran would have a dramatic effect on global oil prices, and we could see a renewed waive of private investment in the oilsands. The key here will be actually learning from our mistakes the last few boom cycles and using that money properly instead of squandering it. That is definitely a hurdle. Creating new industries around well reclamation, extraction of elements like lithium from oil field brines, and geothermal energy are critical to reusing existing expertise and training while pivoting for the new economic reality.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

Yaaaas

 

[CBBarnett]

While I don't disagree that there still is some leftover "boom-juice" driving our population growth, I agree with some of the other posters that draw from international migration and urbanization trends. It doesn't seem like positive job growth is the central factor to this region's population growth anymore, rather it has become one of a group of 3-5 factors including affordability and quality of life that have continued to drive our region's strong growth relative to peers. Those factors recently seem to be improving too: housing price is going down right now in Alberta, quality of life seems to still be tops in Alberta, international migration is still publicly accepted by and large here (unlike Quebec or even parts of Ontario), and our spirits seem to be relatively high.

Regarding economic growth, our economy is continuing to decouple (albeit slowly) from the O & G sector. A lot of people are acting like o & G are a thing of the past too- and sure, peak oil prices are likely not going to be seen again. But there are geopolitical influences that could change that scenario pretty rapidly: I would never like to see it, but a global proxy war staked primarily between SA and Iran would have a dramatic effect on global oil prices, and we could see a renewed waive of private investment in the oilsands. The key here will be actually learning from our mistakes the last few boom cycles and using that money properly instead of squandering it. That is definitely a hurdle. Creating new industries around well reclamation, extraction of elements like lithium from oil field brines, and geothermal energy are critical to reusing existing expertise and training while pivoting for the new economic reality.

The one misconception is that Calgary does indeed have positive job growth link. Outside the immediate recession itself (late 2015 - end of 2016) job growth has continued in Calgary at a respectable pace, easily competitive within the big metros over the past 5 years. What's missing is the growth in O&G and in the higher income jobs as a result. Limited higher-wage job growth? You know what that sounds like - every other city in Canada experiencing moderate growth.

Trevor Tombe, an economist folks should follow if they are interested in Calgary/Alberta economic analysis, has loads of information on the subject. See the graph he put together for a useful characterization of wage growth in Alberta v. Canada. The weird part was 2010 - 2014, not 2015 - present where we returned to the Canadian average.Source:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1156559858092535808

Remember, this graph still only speaks to wage growth. Actual wages in Calgary remain substantially higher in Calgary than other Canadian metros. We are growing at a slower - but still average - rate but from a higher base.

Alberta's decades-old capture by the O&G sector on all layers of political debate is increasingly out of touch of the reality of what's happening in the city. Calgary is returning to a normal city level of growth, not falling off a cliff. That's a single-industry view point, while important and with real impacts on the tax and commercial office demand situation, is dwarfed by the role that demographics and urbanization play in urban development in Calgary.

 

[retrofiturbanism]

Calgary will continue to have above a 10% growth rate which is one of the highest rates for metros on the continent. Cities like Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, continue to grow at a rapid pace because of the costs of living, taxes, etc. compared to Toronto and Vancouver. Affordable housing is becoming an issue, and right now Calgary is relatively cheap.

We have never had, nor will ever have a 10% growth rate. The most we have seen in the last 2 decades was 3.73% in 2006. The highest growth rate globally was 3.83% in South Sudan in 2018. 10% growth is off the charts and almost no city has seen growth of that level in a single year, let alone sustained over a long period of time.

 

[Travisty]

We have never had, nor will ever have a 10% growth rate. The most we have seen in the last 2 decades was 3.73% in 2006. The highest growth rate globally was 3.83% in South Sudan in 2018. 10% growth is off the charts and almost no city has seen growth of that level in a single year, let alone sustained over a long period of time.

Defining the growth rate of >10% in this context, is off the Canadian census (5 years)

 

[UrbanWarrior]

Yeah, no one said yearly, and no one in their right mind should assume it was meant yearly, since it's pretty much impossible save for a catastrophic migration.

 

[heightjunkie]

Yeah, no one said yearly, and no one in their right mind should assume it was meant yearly, since it's pretty much impossible save for a catastrophic migration.

If there is anywhere in the world that could handle catastrophic migration though, why not here? We have the space, the raw materials, the manpower to build 100s or even 1000s of new homes in a year if necessary.

I posit that accepting mass migration of relatively disenfranchised populations is exactly what made the United States into a super power so rapidly after properly forming into a single nation. I think there are some short term "pains" i.e. how do you figure out the immediate employment situation for 150,000 new people (or ~70,000 if we are thinking that at least one parent will need to work and obviously not the kids?) This could potentially be worked out by government sponsored infrastructure projects, or even potentially putting new arrivals to work building out the houses that will be needed to board them.

I think we should stop looking at immigration as something to be feared, and look at it as a way to accelerate the development of an economy.

 

[Silence&Motion]

I posit that accepting mass migration of relatively disenfranchised populations is exactly what made the United States into a super power so rapidly after properly forming into a single nation.

New York City's annual growth rate in the 1890s was about 3% (about 40,000 people per year), and made it The City against which all other cities in the world compare themselves.

 

[Travisty]

If there is anywhere in the world that could handle catastrophic migration though, why not here? We have the space, the raw materials, the manpower to build 100s or even 1000s of new homes in a year if necessary.

I posit that accepting mass migration of relatively disenfranchised populations is exactly what made the United States into a super power so rapidly after properly forming into a single nation. I think there are some short term "pains" i.e. how do you figure out the immediate employment situation for 150,000 new people (or ~70,000 if we are thinking that at least one parent will need to work and obviously not the kids?) This could potentially be worked out by government sponsored infrastructure projects, or even potentially putting new arrivals to work building out the houses that will be needed to board them.

I think we should stop looking at immigration as something to be feared, and look at it as a way to accelerate the development of an economy.

I do not think anyone would dispute that immigration is vital for growth and good for many other reasons. The United States back in the 1800's didn't have to worry about infrastructure with subsidized healthcare and education. Housing with sewage and plumbing is not the same as it was back then. 150,000 migrants to Calgary immediately would not be healthy

 

[MichaelS]

The Metro Ford / One Properties 9th Avenue site goes to CPC next week for rezoning:

https://pub-calgary.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=105027

 

[MichaelS]

A corner parcel in Rosscarrock is going to CPC for rezoning, looking to do mixed use, FAR 4 and height of 20m. This is within the Westbrook Station ARP, and on one of the City's Main Streets (37th Street SW):

https://pub-calgary.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=105037

According to the applicant submission, they intend to build a dental office, on top of retail (no DP, so just a description)

https://pub-calgary.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=105038

37th Street is one of the Main Streets currently undergoing the "Design" phase, and has a concept that is almost completed (survey is closed on opinion, not sure how long until finalized):

West 17 Avenue and 37 Street Main Streets construction

engage.calgary.ca

As you can see in the image and within the information in the link above, the City has maintained the existing ROW, developing a plan that requires no new land. ou can also see that there is a bylawed setback on the west side of 37th Street, found in Section 53 of the Land Use Bylaw, that calls for the protection of 5.182m (17 feet). This setback was initially put in place decades ago to allow for a new lane of traffic on 37th Street. Clearly, that is no longer the plan, as evidenced by this new Main Street Streetscape concept.

Yet, when you look at the report going to CPC, you see this comment on page 5, under Transportation:
"Also, at the development permit stage, new development will not be allowed vehicular access to 37 Street SW. A bylawed setback (5.182 metres) will be required on 37 Street SW. "

So, when a DP for this medical office building comes in, it will be pushed back 17 feet from the sidewalk, likely with a lawn between the sidewalk and the building face. I really, really, really hope that this discrepancy is dealt with before we get a DP, as 17 feet of lawn doesn't exactly feel like a proper, TOD style streetscape.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Feds commit $110M to Arts Commons and Contemporary Calgary expansions

The federal government is committing $110 million in funding for two infrastructure projects that will benefit Calgary's arts community, but the money is contingent on other levels of government providing financial support as well.

calgary.ctvnews.ca

Feds commit $110M to Arts Commons and Contemporary Calgary expansions

Contingent upon funding from other levels, but good news for Contemporary Calgary.



Also, I don't recall seeing this rendering for the new Contemporary Calgary.

 

[Social Justice]

Feds commit $110M to Arts Commons and Contemporary Calgary expansions

The federal government is committing $110 million in funding for two infrastructure projects that will benefit Calgary's arts community, but the money is contingent on other levels of government providing financial support as well.

calgary.ctvnews.ca

Feds commit $110M to Arts Commons and Contemporary Calgary expansions

Contingent upon funding from other levels, but good news for Contemporary Calgary.



Also, I don't recall seeing this rendering for the new Contemporary Calgary.

View attachment 201537

Great news! There must be an election coming up soon

 

[UrbanWarrior]

I think I just died.

 

[Colinfill]

I'm guessing that these are still preliminary renderings for Contemporary Calgary? I don't remember KPMB releasing anything and I tried to find any additional renderings but didn't have much luck. I would imagine we would get a more official reveal of the renderings later on?