It's a a Forum poll. They tend to be suspect.
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- Thread starter SJD_Toronto
- Start date
adma
Superstar
Huh?!? Remember that *Tory* (Kouvalis and all) is selling himself as a *male* Ford with less controversy. Why on earth would Stintz, or anybody half-sane, align themselves with Ford?
Greg Banks
Active Member
Really? I thought Tory was advertising himself as the social anti-Ford....the fiscal goals maybe the same the path to get there nevertheless more conciliatory...the social goals I think are worlds apart...Would you see Tory voting no or being absent four years in a row for allocations to shelter, community recreation, community safety, access, equity and human rights (as noted in the Community Development and Recreation Committee meetings 2010-2014)?
Videodrome
Senior Member
Polls also said the provincial election was a dead heat and Wynne got a majority government quite easily.
Midtown Urbanist
Superstar
I'm not surprised that Chow's support is declining. The euphoria surrounding her candidacy is weaning and Kinsella, the handgun ban announcement, and the way she presents herself at debates (mothers on strollers...) are all beginning to turn heads away.
But I highly highly highly doubt Ford is gaining those votes. That doesn't make sense. Nobody supporting Chow will turn to Ford.
But I highly highly highly doubt Ford is gaining those votes. That doesn't make sense. Nobody supporting Chow will turn to Ford.
Greg Banks
Active Member
According the poll Chow's support is centrallized in the Old City/East York (49%) in the rest of the city she is lagging behind or statistically deadheated against R Ford and J Tory...and that is with a poll that is weighted in favour of the Old City (37.2% of respondents which represents approx 4% greater ratio than its population merits)
Scarborough is Ford (35%)
North York is Tory (36%)
Etobicoke is a deadheat Ford (35%) Tory (34%)
SJD_Toronto
Active Member
If Stintz drops out, I don't think she'll endorse anyone. I think she'll look at a federal seat in 2015 or slowly start plans for a provincial seat in 2018.
ShonTron
Moderator
If Stintz endorses anyone before dropping out, she'll endorse Tory. They appeal to the same voter - wealthier, more conservative voter. They are both positioning themselves as Ford-without-the-racism-homophobia-and-crack.
But she'll most likely run either as a conservative Liberal in 2015 against Joe Oliver or as a Ontario PC in 2018.
SJD_Toronto
Active Member
I can see Karen taking the next few years to relax, re-group and re-energize. When the Ontario PC's have a new leader (I'm think either MPP Christine Elliott or MP Patrick Brown) and a new election platform, she'll possibly should look at running provincially.
I can see her running as a red Tory against Joe Oliver in 2015 as well.
King of Kensington
Senior Member
I think Josh Colle is far more likely to be the federal Liberal candidate than Karen Stintz.
denfromoakvillemilton
Senior Member
I think Stintz is toxic and done. After all that she still has not separated herself from Robbie. As for the poll, looks like Tory and Ford are splitting the right. So Olivia win will win in October barring some late surge by Tory in Six weeks.
SJD_Toronto
Active Member
Karen Stintz isn't done. If she drops out she'll probably start looking at running federally or provincially. My guess is she'll want to run for a PC seat in 2018. Karen isn't going anywhere.
And from what it looks like, Chow's massive support had dropped. I'm thinking is Troy is climbing up the middle and slowly taking a lot of the Liberal and Conservative leaning votes. This election could be very, very tight, but one thing is almost for sure: Rob Ford will not be re-elected. I'm guessing he'll get... maybe 10 to 13% of the vote.
denfromoakvillemilton
Senior Member
Tory won't win. He's getting half the support he should be because Ford is still in. Stintz is done, people can't support Rob's lapdog (which Tory is not and neither is Josh Colle)
Videodrome
Senior Member
I would think maybe 20%, but not this 27% that that poll is indicating. Of course, it all depends on his next scandal(s) and if this theory of him dropping out and going for the Ward 2 seat.
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SJD_Toronto
Active Member
So you are this convinced Olivia Chow will win? I'm not convinced. I don't think Ford will do well at all the polls come October 27th. Around 10% or so is what I'm predicting for him. I think a lot of soft Ford supporters are heading to the Tory camp which is why he is growing in the polls. I think Tory has a good chance of winning, if he plays his cards right. Tory was smart to hire the people he hired for this campaign and the money he is fundraising is fantastic. Tory does have a chance at winning this, whether you like it or not. This is Chow vs Tory.
As for Karen Stintz, I think her time in municipal politics is over, but that doesn't mean she can't be elected to a federal or provincial seat in the not too distant future. She isn't some Ford "lapdog". Karen can bounce back in a different way.