News   GLOBAL  |  Apr 02, 2020
A Message to Our Readers
 8.9K     0 
News   GLOBAL  |  Apr 01, 2020
EarthCam Time-Lapse Documents Rafael Viñoly-Designed New Stanford Hospital Construction
 40K     0 
News   GLOBAL  |  Apr 01, 2020
Resort Town
 5.1K     0 

That Forum poll must have spooked Chow good. Her campaign sent out a robocall tonight and I just got an email from them asking me to "pledge my vote".
 
TheTigerMaster said:
Why call it a Nenshi? A "Miller" would be accurate as well. From what I've been told, Miller was in a similar situation to Soknacki until the final month of the campaign.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was going to, however I figured Nenshi is more current, although Miller would probably have been more pertinent seeing we're talking a Toronto election....glad you brought it up...
 
So Chow's support is dropping, and Tory's support is only so high because Ford is still in this according to people here. Ford is definitely not getting elected (as someone says, between 10-13% of the vote), so where are all these voters going too?


I don't believe at all Soknacki is truly at 5%. The Sok is rising.
 
I'm very likely to vote for OC in the end...but what an uninspiring campaign. She seems to be using the same "play it safe" strategy used by Adrian Dix and the NDP in B.C.
 
WislaHD said:
So Chow's support is dropping, and Tory's support is only so high because Ford is still in this according to people here. Ford is definitely not getting elected (as someone says, between 10-13% of the vote), so where are all these voters going too?


I don't believe at all Soknacki is truly at 5%. The Sok is rising.
Click to expand...

I think you've misunderstood what people are saying about Tory. When Ford is taken out of the poll, Tory polls higher.

As for Soknacki, don't get your hopes up too much. His whole appeal is strong policy, but many of the key policy planks that make him popular online (no parking in downtown core, Scarborough LRT) are much less popular in real life. One polled terribly, the other got him roundly booed. I suppose early bird fares could get him some popular support though.
 
King of Kensington said:
I'm very likely to vote for OC in the end...but what an uninspiring campaign. She seems to be using the same "play it safe" strategy used by Adrian Dix and the NDP in B.C.
Click to expand...

She doesn't even have to appeal to all the suburbs, just the bay street crowd that lives in Forest Hill, Lawrence Park and Rosedale. Miller only got a plurality in the suburbs.
 
StevieD said:
So you are this convinced Olivia Chow will win? I'm not convinced. I don't think Ford will do well at all the polls come October 27th. Around 10% or so is what I'm predicting for him. I think a lot of soft Ford supporters are heading to the Tory camp which is why he is growing in the polls. I think Tory has a good chance of winning, if he plays his cards right. Tory was smart to hire the people he hired for this campaign and the money he is fundraising is fantastic. Tory does have a chance at winning this, whether you like it or not. This is Chow vs Tory.

As for Karen Stintz, I think her time in municipal politics is over, but that doesn't mean she can't be elected to a federal or provincial seat in the not too distant future. She isn't some Ford "lapdog". Karen can bounce back in a different way.
Click to expand...
Yeah. She has had a mediocre past two weeks and is still in the lead by all accounts. All she needs to do is return to where she was before july and then she should get in. Ford is ruining this race imo. You say a lot of soft Ford support is bleeding, but he's still the most popular of all the candidates. He has a good team, but not enough traction. He should be ahead Ford or not and in any other city he would be.
 
Rob Ford has a good campaign team? Every time Doug opens his mouth, he manages to cause a fuss.
 
denfromoakvillemilton said:
Yeah. She has had a mediocre past two weeks and is still in the lead by all accounts. All she needs to do is return to where she was before july and then she should get in. Ford is ruining this race imo. You say a lot of soft Ford support is bleeding, but he's still the most popular of all the candidates. He has a good team, but not enough traction. He should be ahead Ford or not and in any other city he would be.
Click to expand...

Did you mean to say Tory? Ford is the LEAST popular candidate in the race in terms of disapproval rating.
 
Greg Banks said:
So the mayor's race is now a statistical dead heat according to Forum...
Chow 29
Tory 28
Ford 27
We are seeing erosion in Chow support
Ford has static support
Tory coming up the middle?
I think you are going to see a kingmaker come forward in Stintz (6%) throwing her support behind either Tory or Ford...most probably Ford considering she has been selling herself as the female Ford with less controversy...
Soknacki at 5% I think is still in it for the long haul hoping for a "Nenshi"..his voter recognition is still only 66% so he has room to grow and as he becomes more recognized his policy positions will come to the fore forcing the frontrunners to be specific in their positions
Too bad the Star didn't show the demos of the 1063 interviewed...it would sure be nice to know...and secondly does Forum use the Statscan model for "Factors asociated with voting"
Click to expand...

GB and Everyone: A split vote that could allow RF's re-election should be most Toronto citizens number one concern...A strong candidate with wide support would not allow RF to continue as Toronto's Mayor...

K of K: I hope that you are right - I feel that the October election may have record turnout by Toronto voters that want to make sure that RF can not win re-election...

LI MIKE
 
Last edited:
TheTigerMaster said:
Why call it a Nenshi? A "Miller" would be accurate as well. From what I've been told, Miller was in a similar situation to Soknacki until the final month of the campaign.
Click to expand...

This is a HUGE myth. Here is a quote from a Globe and Mail article, "Candidates hitting campaign trail early Toronto's mayoral race could turn out to be the most competitive in years ", by Jennifer Lewington, dated February 1st, 2003.

Last week, Environics asked 225 Toronto residents whom they would like to see as mayor: 38 per cent said Ms. Hall, 20 per cent opted for Mr. Miller, nine per cent backed Mr. Jakobek and 24 per cent were undecided. The poll, which has a margin of error of 6.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20, asked about official candidates only and was done before Mr. Nunziata declared his bid.
Click to expand...

Soknacki is no Miller. I like the guy, but he has no chance.

By the way, Miller did drop down to about 13% for most of the race (Tory and Nunziata had about the same). You're right that it wasn't until October that he started to pull into the lead. But he was never in last place or single-digit territory.
 
Silence&Motion said:
Did you mean to say Tory? Ford is the LEAST popular candidate in the race in terms of disapproval rating.
Click to expand...
Likeability, Tory doesn't have that.

King of Kensington said:
Keep in mind that the people who say they support Ford are now demographics that are the least likely to vote.
Click to expand...

Problem is, Chow is in the same situation as she has the lock on the youth vote.
 
You must log in or register to post here.

Back
Top