Are ward 2 residents really that loyal to the Ford brand?
Yes. Winds are changing, but there is still considerable loyalty to him.
It's an assumption on my part. It's admittedly formed by osmosis through the media portrayal of Etobicoke as being the Ford Fiefdom. I really have no idea whether or not they really are that loyal to the Ford brand. I try to stay out of Etobicoke and don't trust Forum polls
I'd actually love to see a detailed discussion from from both sides as to why they think Andray or Rob has a shot at winning.
Do the Fords really have that much of a stronghold on Etobicoke anymore, after all that has transpired?
Will they actually vote in someone who is in treatment for aggressive cancer?
I really do not know the answer to these questions, but I'm sure some of the smarter people on this board that will take a stab.
One thing worth mentioning is that there's an enormous gulf between the level of information of UT forum readers and the level of information of blue-collar workers who may or may not pick up the 24H paper on their way to to work. We know Andray's name because we exist in a forum where his name is repeatedly endlessly. This place is not sympathetic to the brothers Ford, so anything that looks like a glimmer of hope that their tenure will come to an end is dissected, repeated, analyzed, and gripped like crazy.
However, this level of analysis and engagement doesn't exist across the population in general, or else we'd see political engagement rates greater than what they currently are. If you don't read the politics section in the newspaper or head online to Twitter or whatnot, it's very reasonable that you wouldn't know the names of your council candidates beyond possibly the incumbent.
The Myth of Saint Ford persists because Ford gets the most media attention and he's the only one really crafting that message. Both Tory and Chow have been timid in their attacks on Ford relative to what is necessary to actually break through to low-information voters, of which there are a
shitload, that Ford is a failure on so many levels. There are entirely too many people who think that his biggest problems are drinking and drugs, which they can easily write off as "personal issues". Ford may be a lot of terrible things, but he's extremely savvy at controlling the narrative for the low-information voter. He's extremely good at image-crafting, or else we wouldn't be battling the Myth of Saint Ford. I'm honestly surprised that we haven't heard him say "I drank and took drugs to mask the pain of my abdominal tumour. It's been bad for three months but I've had pain for much longer. That's why I did that, and I'm sorry I let everyone down". It's a perfect type of simplistic guilt-tripping sentence: "Oh, sorry, I disappointed you - guess I was too busy dealing with
CANCER" that subconsciously gets to people.
Will they vote him in despite his treatment? I'm no prognosticator, but Ford is still extremely popular. A lot of people don't have first-hand experience with someone battling aggressive cancer, so they don't realize just how much of a toll it takes on you. But even then, Ford is larger-than-life. Cancer hitting him doesn't mean the same thing as cancer hitting your great-aunt who smoked for 40 years. They're just words on paper to a lot of people, words that inspire us to wish him well even though we realistically don't know what it means to deal with chemo and radiation. We may know someone who has gone through it, but our exposures are typically limited. Now, if a media shot comes out a week before the election and he's lost 50 pounds and looks sickly and weak, that might spur people, but if all we're getting is Warmington's garbage, then there's a significant chance that the severe impact of chemo and radiation (and possibly surgery) will be downplayed to an irresponsible degree.
I do not take joy in this prediction, but if Ford wins Ward 2 in October, then I am confident we'll be seeing a by-election in 2015. A win will embolden him and he will continue to poison himself.